Financial Review

So Disappointing

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-20-2015_2_.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 3= 17,515 SPX + 3 = 2022 NAS + 20 = 4654 10 YR YLD un = 1.81% OIL – 2.30 = 46.39 GOLD + 13.90 = 1295.20 SILV + .19 = 18.08 Wall Street loves free money; they love free money from the Federal Reserve and for the past 5 years Wall Street has rallied on bailouts, QE, and ZIRP. The bailouts are over and the government promises they will never give away your money to the big banks again; QE, or quantitative easing is also finished and the Fed says they are out of the bond buying business for now; and ZIRP, or Zero Interest Rate Policy will patiently be replaced by slightly higher interest rates. Remember, Wall Street loves free money, so you might expect Wall Street might throw a tantrum at the prospect of no more QE and higher interest rates; we’ve seen taper tantrums in the not-so-distant past; and that might be what we’ve been experiencing to start the New Year. But the Federal Reserve is not the only central bank with a stimulus scheme. The Bank of Japan has its own QE program called Abenomics. And the European Central Bank is finally expected to launch its own QE program on Thursday. ECB President Mario Draghi has been saying he would do “whatever it takes” for the past 2 years. Now, the markets …

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Financial Review

Admit It

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-08-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 323 = 17,907 SPX + 36 = 2062 NAS + 85 = 4736 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.01% OIL + .08 = 48.73 GOLD – 2.20 = 1209.90 SILV – .16 = 16.48 Since 1928, the Standard & Poor’s 500 has started the year with 3 straight losing days eight times. And only once has the S&P 500 finished one of those years in the red. During the 8 years since 1928 that the S&P started with 3-day losing streaks, the index has returned 8.3% on average. For all years since 1928, the S&P has returned 7.5% on average. Maybe it’s a good thing to start the year with 3 straight losing sessions. Then there is the idea that the first 5 trading sessions of the year can be used to extrapolate the direction of the market for the year. If that is the case, then we might expect some rough sledding for the markets in the early part of the year followed by a strong second half of the year. This is a variation on the idea of the January barometer, which says (basically) that if January is positive, the year will be positive, and vice versa; that didn’t work last year, but it is accurate about 89% of the time. Of course, that’s just probabilities and tendencies. We don’t know where the market will …

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Financial Review

The Grand Experiment

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-29-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 31 = 16,974 SPX – 2 = 1982 NAS – 15 = 4549 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.32% OIL + .53 = 81.95 GOLD – 16.20 = 1212.60 SILV – .11 = 17.19 The Federal Reserve wrapped up their 2 day FOMC meeting. There were no surprises. The Fed is ending Quantitative Easing, just as they promised they would. There was a very slight change in their description of the labor market and inflation; saying underutilization in the labor market is gradually diminishing; and regarding inflation, the rate of price changes has slackened recently because of lower energy prices. The Fed kept their phrase “considerable time” to describe how long they will hold off raising interest rates. Quantitative Easing is Fed-speak for large scale asset purchases, or another way of saying the Fed had been buying US Treasuries and mortgages. At one point they were buying $85 billion a month. Over the past year they’ve scaled back purchases, cutting back about $10 billion after each FOMC meeting. Earlier this month they had scaled back purchases to $15 billion, and now the buying spree is over. Except it isn’t really over. The Fed has spent about $4.5 trillion and removed a tremendous amount of bonds and mortgages from the market, greatly reducing supply. The basic supply demand equation says that when you reduce supply, prices go up. Sure enough, prices …

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Financial Review

The Ghosts of October

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-28-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW+ 187 = 17,005 SPX + 23 = 1985 NAS + 78 = 4564 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.29% OIL + .38 = 81.38 GOLD + 2.90 = 1229.00 SILV + .09 = 17.31 Today, we’ll start with a few earnings reports then move to economic news. After the close Facebook reported a profit of $806 million, or 30 cents a share, up from $425 million, or 17 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding share-based compensation and other items, earnings rose to 43 cents a share from 27 cents. Revenue increased 59% to $3.2 billion. Earnings were up about 90%; revenue up about 60%. Shares were just a little lower in after-hours trade. Dupont reported operating earnings per share of $0.54 were up 20 percent from $0.45 per share last year, in-line with estimates. Pfizer reports a third-quarter profit of $2.67 billion, or 42 cents a share, up from $2.59 billion, or 39 cents a share. Revenue slipped 2% to $12.36 billion. Freeport-McMoRan reported earnings of 53 cents per share for third-quarter 2014, reflecting a decline of 32.9% from the year-ago earnings of 79 cents. Profit declined 32.8% year over year to $552 million, hurt by lower pricing of copper and gold. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values increased 5.6 percent from August 2013. Prices are still going up, but at a slower pace. Home prices in the 20-city index …

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Financial Review

Third World Stuff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-15-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 173 = 16,141 SPX – 15 = 1862 NAS – 11 = 4215 10 YR YLD – .11 = 2.09% OIL – .13 = 81.71 GOLD + 8.90 = 1242.10 SILV + .05 = 17.55 Go back a mere 18 trading sessions and the market was at all-time highs. The Dow hit an intraday high of 17,350 and a closing high of 17,279, on September 19th; that was 18 trading sessions in the past. For the Nasdaq composite we have seen a 10% correction from recent highs. That means this drop happened fast, and it also means the bear may have more room to run; this move is not mature in terms of duration or magnitude. The major indices have dropped under the 200 day moving average; we were waiting for confirmation; we got it. The S&P looked to bounce off a different trendline. If you draw a straight line across the S&P lows beginning with the lows from 2011, which is where we saw support and a bounce today, at the 1820 level; it is also very close to the support levels from April at about 1815, which we talked about on Monday. That is an intermediate level of support, but it held today, and you have to respect the line, unless or until it breaks down. Once we hit certain levels, people start to feel the pain and they …

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Financial Review

The Only Winner is Gravity

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-09-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 334 = 16,659 SPX– 40 = 1928 NAS – 90 =4378 10 YR YLD un 2.33% OIL – 2.96 = 84.35 GOLD + 2.10 = 1224.60 SILV – .03 = 17.45 Triple-digit swings in the stock market have become common in recent days. Just this week, the Dow jumped 274 points Wednesday, reversing a 272-point decline on Tuesday. We’ll talk about volatility in just a moment. In economic news: Germany’s exports sank 5.8 percent in August, the biggest monthly drop in five years. The figure raised concerns that Europe’s largest economy may fall into recession. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi says Europe’s problems are structural, not cyclical and there can be no recovery without reforms. Draghi was speaking in New York; he said the Euro banking sector is still going through deleveraging; they are not lending; and there are limits to what the ECB can do to produce growth. And deflation is highly contagious. The number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits in the first week of October edged down by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 287,000, holding below 300,000 for the fourth straight week. Jobless claims are now 21% lower compared to one year ago. What we are starting to see is that so many businesses fired workers during the downturn and they have been very slow to rehire or hire new workers, which means not many …

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Financial Review

Incredibly Orwellian Record High

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-17-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 24 = 17,156 SPX + 2 = 2001 NAS + 9 = 4562 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.60% OIL – .90 = 93.98 GOLD – 11.70 = 1224.20 SILV – .16 = 18.62 The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high of 17,156.85; the first record high for the Dow since July. The Dow set an all-time intraday high of 17,221.11. It was the sixteenth record close for the blue chip index in 2014. The stock market action today was focused on the Federal Reserve. I suppose we could say the same thing about the past 6 years. Today, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its FOMC meeting. The FOMC stands for Federal Open Market Committee, which sounds incredibly Orwellian. The meeting was a rousing success; we know this because the media coverage can’t quite figure out whether the Fed will raise interest rates sooner or later, or whether the economy is weaker or stronger. While the much analyzed phrase “considerable time” remained in the FOMC statement, the newly announced scheme for interest rate normalization shows that higher rates are in the cards. The FOMC also said labor market conditions improved but a significant amount of slack remains. The Fed said it would end the bond-buying program known as quantitative easing in October. The Fed will purchase $15 billion of mortgage and Treasury bonds in October and then …

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Financial Review

Face the Facts

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-08-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSDOW – 25 = 17,111 SPX – 6 = 2001 NAS + 9 = 4592 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.47% OIL – .63 = 92.66 GOLD – 12.90 = 1256.50 SILV – .17 = 19.12 The Federal Reserve reports consumers increased their debt by a seasonally adjusted $26.0 billion in July, up from an $18.8 billion gain in the prior month. Monthly debt rose at a 9.7% annual rate in July, compared with a 7.1% rate in the prior month. On a dollar amount, that’s a record gain, and on a percentage basis, it’s the highest since July 2011. Crude oil for October delivery fell 63 cents, or 0.7 percent, to settle at $92.66 a barrel in New York, its lowest level since January. Oil prices have fallen for three days straight as geopolitical worries in Ukraine and Iraq have eased. The ceasefire between Russia and the Ukraine is holding by a thread. The EU has approved a second round of sanctions against Russia, but today, they put the sanctions on hold, hoping for a favorable outcome. In an initial set of economic sanctions imposed in late July, the EU barred five state-owned Russian banks from selling shares or bonds in Europe; restricted the export of equipment to modernize the oil industry; prohibited new contracts to sell arms to Russia; and banned the export of machinery, electronics and other civilian products with military …

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Financial Review

A Messy Business

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCALIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-04-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review 09-04-2014 DOW – 8 = 17,069 SPX – 3 = 1997 NAS – 10 = 4562 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.45% OIL – .98 = 94.56 GOLD – 8.40 = 1261.90 SILV – .11 = 19.16 Wall Street tried to rally but fizzled instead. The Dow and the S&P 500 hit new intraday records, only to close down on the day. The S&P energy index ended down 1.3% as the day’s worst performing sector in the S&P. Crude oil futures lost 1.1% to $94.56 as the dollar strengthened and weighed on commodities. Tomorrow brings the monthly jobs report. Payrolls processing firm ADP said private-sector payrolls increased by 204,000 last month after rising by 212,000 in July, with gains spread across a range of industries. While the report was a bit softer than expected, it marked the fifth straight month of gains above 200,000. The ADP report does not always predict the government jobs report but it is a general indicator of the report. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose from 58.7 in July to 59.6 last month, the highest reading since its inception in January 2008. The Commerce Department said the US trade deficit fell 0.6% to $40.5 billion in July, its smallest size since January. When adjusted for inflation, it reached its narrowest point since December 2013. A new survey from the Federal Reserve shows the …

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Financial Review

You Can’t Get There From Here

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-02-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 30 = 17,067 SPX – 1 = 2002 NAS + 17 = 4598 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.42% OIL – 3.08 = 92.88 GOLD – 21.70 = 1266.50 SILV – .31 = 19.25 The S&P 500 hit an intraday record just over 2,006 shortly after the opening bell, but then turned negative. Morgan Stanley strategists said that the bull market could run for another five years and carry the S&P close to 3,000. They say the stock market is likely to keep “grinding higher,” helped by foreign investors for whom it’s “the only place to go.” But investors should remain aware of risks in the market, including the fact that zero interest-rate policies mean central bankers can’t lower rates to counter outside shocks. A strong dollar and continued concerns about demand pulled crude-oil futures to their lowest settlement since January. Brent futures ended at their lowest in nearly 18 months, and other energy commodities also notched multi-month lows. With Labor Day marking the end of the US driving season, refinery turnarounds are expected to start in earnest. Tensions rose in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, with President Vladimir Putin reportedly telling a European Commission leader he saying he could take Kiev in two weeks. Russia did not deny the report, although officials there said the remarks had been taken out of context. Libya’s outgoing cabinet has acknowledged that …

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