Financial Review

Feb. 21, 2019 Links

What we are reading today. The Mueller Report Is Coming. Here’s What to Expect. – New York Times. A lot of people are going to be upset; we just don’t yet know which side. Robert Mueller’s “collusion” case so far, explained – Vox. Too far or not far enough. BAML: Investors are freaking out about the rising prospect of a global recession. – Business Insider. The biggest fear for credit investors. The trigger? Maybe that Commerce Dept is expected to report that foreign car imports pose a national security threat and might be subject to tariffs. Autos, planes boost durable-goods orders in December, but growth was invisible outside of transportation – Marketwatch. If cars and planes are stripped out of the equation, orders rose just 0.1%. So, yes, tariffs on cars would probably lead to a global recession. Leading index for U.S. economy falls in January, but there’s a catch – Marketwatch. Incomplete data due to government shutdown. JP Morgan economists now see the economy growing at just 1.5% pace this quarter – CNBC. Following the fourth quarter’s sluggish 1.4 percent pace. Bad economic news is bad for the stock market again with the Fed already on hold – CNBC.  The “put” is not in play while the Fed hits pause. The Supreme Court Just Stopped Local Sheriffs From Carjacking to Pay the Bills – Yahoo. The 14th Amendment’s excessive fines and the 8th Amendment’s due process kill the local sheriff’s slush fund. The bizarre election fraud hearings that could …

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Financial Review

Laissez les Bons Temps Rouler

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-26-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-26-2016 DOW + 282 = 16,167 SPX + 26 = 1903 NAS + 49 = 4567 10 Y – .03 = 1.99% OIL + .11 = 30.45 GOLD + 11.80 = 1120.70   The Federal Reserve had always planned to pause after raising interest rates in December, but the question now is how long that break will last. Initial expectations were that the FOMC would raise rates again this March, but a downturn in the equity markets, a stronger dollar and weak inflation have led some to predict that another move may be months away. Investors may get some more insight as Fed officials gather today for a two-day session, their first policy-making meeting of 2016. For now, the Fed can simply say that they are data dependent and the 25 basis point increase in December has not had an effect on the economy. They might say that everything is basically good in the economy and the markets, if they get any mention at all, are just not looking at the right data.   In a recent speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley summed up the situation: “In terms of the economic outlook, the situation does not appear to have changed much since the last [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting. Some recent activity indicators have been on the softer side, pointing to a relatively weak fourth quarter …

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Financial Review

Financial Review for Wednesday, April 30, 2014 – Record Highs in First Gear

Record Highs in First Gear by Sinclair Noe DOW + 45 = 16580.84 (record close)SPX + 5 = 1883 NAS + 11 = 411410 YR YLD – .04 = 2.65%OIL – 1.59 = 99.69GOLD – 4.60 = 1292.30SILV – .29 = 19.25 Back on December 31st, we finished the old year with a record high close on the Dow Industrial Average at 16,576; since then the index has bobbed up  and down, briefly hitting an intraday high of  16,631 on April 4th, but on that day we finished in negative territory. Today, a record high close. The S&P 500 is closing in on the record high close of 1890, but not today. Now, when you hear the Dow is breaking records, you might think the economy is roaring, cruising along the highway in fifth gear. You would be wrong; the economy is stuck in first gear and the clutch is slipping. The Commerce Department reports the economy expanded at a mere 0.1% annual pace in the first three months of the year, one of the weakest rates of growth in the nearly 5-year-old recovery. A slowdown had been expected due to the harsh winter weather that froze business activity across a large swath of the country, but this report was worse than expected. The gross domestic product had been expanding at a 3.4% pace in the second half of last year. No worries, the weather has warmed and everything is returning to normal. Yeah, not exactly. There has been a …

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Uncategorized

Monday, July 15, 2013 – Lazy Days of Summer

Lazy Days of Summer by Sinclair Noe DOW + 19 = 15484SPX + 2 = 1682NAS + 7 = 360710 YR YLD – .04 = 2.55%OIL + .52 = 106.47GOLD – 1.60 = 1284.20SILV + .01 = 20.03 On a quiet Monday in the middle of the summer, in the middle of July, stocks pulled out modest gains today, but it was good enough for another record for the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500. The S&P posted its 8th consecutive advance. The Nasdaq 100 posted its 14th consecutive advance. Volume was light, the slowest trading session of any full trading day this year. So, this record setting rally is looking a little long in the tooth. The Commerce Department reports retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month, that was less than expected. Let’s break it down: Sales got a big lift in June from the auto industry, with purchases up 1.8%. That’s the biggest gain since last November. Gasoline sales, meanwhile, climbed 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis.  Sales also rose for home-furnishings, pharmaceuticals, personal care, clothes and hobby items. Sales fell 2.2% at home-improvement stores, by 1.2% at bars and restaurants and by 1% at department stores. The auto sector generates about one-fifth of all retail spending. Excluding autos, sales were unchanged. So, here’s what is happening; the price of gas is going up; people are trading in their old gas guzzlers for more fuel efficient cars; the savings on gas pay for the newer car. …

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