Financial Review

S**t for Brains

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-12-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Record highs on Wall Street. CPI up. Hints of inflation. Fed on course. Retail was strong. JPM and WFC report strong earnings. NYC sues big oil. Facebook changes algorithms. Another new low for Trump. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-12-2018

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Financial Review

A New Record for Record Highs

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-28-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Dow and S&P hit record highs, again. Copper 4-year high. Oil up. North Korea caught red handed. South Korea clamps down on bitcoin. A shift in the Senate. A very bad weather year. Looking for loopholes in the tax plan…. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-28-2017

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Financial Review

Complacency Abounds

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-14-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow, S&P, Russell close at record highs. Retail sales fell in June. CPI shows inflation flatline. Industrial production up. Consumer sentiment is strong now but the future sucks. Big 3 banks report earnings, topping profit estimates and dropping on the news. Waiting on a health care bill Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-14-2017

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Financial Review

Records Across the Board

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-01-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow, S&P and Nasdaq close at record highs. ISM manufacturing ticks up. Construction spending down. ADP private jobs strong. Fed Beige Book points to tight labor market. Trump pulls out of Paris Accord. Illinois cut.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-01-2017

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Financial Review

Like a Bird on a Wire

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-11-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow record high. Commodities, financials up. Bonds, tech and emerging markets down. Fed jawbones for higher rates. Trump transition takes shape. Trumpcare takes shape vaguely. Happy Singles Day. App judgment. Super moon rising. Veterans Day thanks. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-11-2016

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Financial Review

Milk and Cookies Redux

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-13-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSMore record highs on Wall Street. Import goods inch up. Budget deficit grows as corps pay less. Beige Book, meh. Oil gluts return. May new PM. PC sales grow. New GM loses shield of Old GM. Something new under the sun – Mas Blue. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-13-2016

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Financial Review

Holy Grail

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 155 = 18,288 SPX + 12 = 2117 NAS + 44 = 5008 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.08% OIL + .06 = 49.82 GOLD – 7.80 = 1206.90 SILV – .22 = 16.46   February was the best month for stocks since October 2011. The S&P 500 gained 5.5% in February. March is off to a fine start. The Dow Industrial Average closed at a record high. The S&P 500 closed at a record. The Nasdaq Composite hit 5000 for the first time in 15 years. And if you wonder why we celebrate when the indices hit records, it is because 15 years ago we didn’t know it would take 15 years to get back to these levels.   Earnings season is pretty much over and it wasn’t all that pretty. With 485 of 500 S&P 500 companies reporting, FactSet says the blended growth rate is only 3.7%. Without Apple that number shrinks to only 2% but then again if you take out energy, it balloons to nearly 7%. Estimates have been revised lower, which is typical; companies try to ratchet down expectations, but this is different. All sectors are showing expectation deterioration, not just energy.   Earnings growth has slowed, and valuations are a little on the pricey side, and expectations are down. So, why are stocks at record highs? Well, start with the idea that …

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Financial Review

Wednesday, August 27, 2014 – The Greater Depression

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-27-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08272014 Financial Review DOW + 15 = 17,122 SPX + 0.10 = 2000.12 (record) NAS – 1 = 4569 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.36% OIL – .16 = 93.70 GOLD + 2.10 = 1283.70 SILV + .08 = 19.54 Any positive day for the S&P 500 means a new record high close; today was the 31st of the year. Volume was really, really light. This week the S&P 500 crossed above 2000, which would indicate the economy is strong; there are several economic indicators you could consider such as an abundance of corporate cash, a little more top line growth in the second quarter, and improved consumer confidence even if consumers haven’t found the cash to pay for things; but you also have the yield on the 10 year Treasury note dropping lower and lower, which would indicate the economy is weak. We are told the yield on Treasuries is low because of foreign buyers, and maybe Treasuries can be considered a global instrument; another possibility is that the deficit has been shrinking, meaning fewer new issuances…, still. Most divergences result in a reversion to the mean. So the big question is whether stocks come down or yields go up. The US budget picture will likely worsen in coming months as companies wait until next year to see what actions Congress will take on taxes. A report from the Congressional Budget Office …

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Financial Review

Rarified Air

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-21-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08212014 DOW + 60 = 17,039 SPX + 5 = 1992 NAS + 5 = 4532 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.40% OIL + .45 = 93.90 GOLD – 15.10 = 1277.30 SILV – .04 = 19.52 The S&P 500 broke two records during today’s session, climbing past its previous intraday all-time high of 1,991.39 and ending above its previous record close of 1,987.98. Both had been set on July 24. Family Dollar has rejected a $9 billion dollar buyout offer from Dollar General, opting instead for a smaller $8.5 billion dollar offer from Dollar Tree. The thinking is that a combination of the largest dollar store – Dollar General with the #2 Family Dollar, would be unlikely to win antitrust approval. Once upon a time, Sears was the largest retailer in the nation. Today, Sears Holdings announce it lost $975 million in the first half of the year; $573 million in the second quarter. This was the 9th consecutive quarter of losses, and the past quarter also marked the heaviest losses. Quarterly revenue dropped about 10%. The plan now is to close underperforming stores, or, in a classic example of corporate-speak “rationalizing our physical footprint.” The company successfully spun off Lands End earlier this year, to the benefit of shareholders. But its Sears Canada and Sears Automotive stores have been on the block for some time, indicating either a lack of interest …

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Financial Review

Tuesday, June 10, 2014 – Equity Party in the Wormhole

Equity Party in the Wormhole by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 2 = 16,945 SPX – 0.48 = 1950 NAS + 1 = 4338 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.63% OIL – .22 = 104.19 GOLD + 7.90 = 1260.90 SILV + .13 = 19.29   The Dow Industrial Average hit another record high close; the fourth consecutive record. How did the Dow manage to move higher? Who knows? It wasn’t a big move but any positive results in a new record. How now Dow? Maybe it has something to do with the Federal Reserve and the other central bankers vacuuming up all the toxic detritus from the world of finance, pushing rates to sub-zero; leaving investors with little choice but a move to equities. Maybe global corporations have found a way to squeeze extra value out of a bone dry economy. Maybe the major indices have entered a cosmic wormhole devoid of common sense.   Today’s case in point is Uber, which is an app designed to connect riders with cars and drivers; which sounds a lot like hailing a taxi, but this is different because you can hail the taxi and pay the taxi with your smartphone; which means it’s software that eats taxis. Uber is different mainly because it is worth about $18 billion; which means it is worth more than most of the companies in the S&P 500 index. It’s an equity party, and for now at least, nobody is turning out the lights. Friday’s …

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Tuesday, November 26, 2013 – The Best Question

The Best Question by Sinclair Noe DOW + 0.26 = 16,072SPX + 0.27 = 1802NAS + 23 = 401710 YR YLD – .02 = 2.71%OIL – .60 = 93.49GOLD – 9.60 = 1243.00SILV – .39 = 19.92 Today we celebrate the Nasdaq. Yes, the Dow is at record highs, again, but the milk and cookies thing is getting old, kind of sickly sweet. Some might argue that you can never have too many cookies; that any day with milk and cookies is a good day. It’s hard to dispute this argument. Still, it bears notice that the Nasdaq has closed above 4,000 for the first time in 13 years. The Nasdaq is up about 33% year to date, and counting. So, today we celebrate with chips and salsa. If you’re thinking the Nasdaq has had quite a run and it’s starting to feel like 1999, you could be forgiven, but when you put it in perspective it’s not quite the same. P/E ratios are around 19, compared with 29 just before the millennium. Price to book is now 2.6 compared to 5.1 back then. Basically, back in 1999, the Nasdaq was extremely overvalued. You can argue that it’s overvalued today, but it isn’t nearly to the old extremes. Two economic reports on the housing market today. Permits for future home construction hit a near 5-½ year-high in October and prices for single-family homes showed big gains in September, suggesting a run-up in mortgage interest rates has not derailed the housing …

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Friday, November 15, 2013 – Stuck in the Monetary Tar Pit

Stuck in the Monetary Tar Pit by Sinclair Noe DOW + 85 = 15,961 SPX + 7 = 1798 NAS + 13 = 3985 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.70%OIL – .04 = 93.72GOLD + 3.10 = 1291.40SILV + .04 = 20.88 Record highs for the Dow and the S&P 500; with the Dow closing in on 16,000, and the S&P closing in on 1800 or maybe 2000 if you blink. The Nasdaq is nowhere near record highs but it is close to 4,000 and that’s a 13 year high. It’s rare that the Attorney General discusses an active investigation, but the New York Times reports Eric Holder is talking about the currency markets and how some of the biggest banks may have rigged trading in the largest and least regulated market in the financial world. Holder said: “The manipulation we’ve seen so far may just be the tip of the iceberg. We’ve recognized that this is potentially an extremely consequential investigation.” The investigation still seems to be in the early stages; no one has been accused of wrongdoing, yet. The DOJ apparently has at least one trader who is providing evidence, and they have gathered a whole bunch of emails, instant messages, chat-room conversations, and other documents. Nine of the largest banks in currency trading have announced they are facing inquiries. The banks placed about a dozen traders on leave pending the outcome of the inquiry. And several banks are considering limiting the ability of their traders to …

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Wednesday, September 18, 2013 – Surprise, Surprise, Surprise

Surprise, Surprise, Surprise by Sinclair Noe DOW + 147 = 15,676SPX + 20 = 1725NAS + 37 = 378310 YR YLD – .16 = 2.68%OIL + .43 = 108.50GOLD + 55.30 = 1366.30SILV + 1.23 = 23.06 Record highs for the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500, topping the highs of August 2. Surprise, surprise, surprise. It was not guaranteed the Fed would start to taper, but it was widely expected. We’ve talked about the reasons why the Fed might taper; the timing of the remaining FOMC meetings this year, some improvement in the economy, fear of frothy markets. Fouhgetaboutit. After two days of meetings, the FOMC decided to continue with the current quantitative easing policy of purchasing $85 billion a month in mortgage backed securities and treasuries. The punchbowl is full and the party is still rocking. In addition to record highs for the Dow and S&P 500, we saw 5-year Treasury’s biggest yield drop since March 2009, the US dollar’s third worst day in a year, home-builders had their biggest rally since last summer, and gold had its best day since January 2009. At least Wall Street institutions and traders love the accommodative policy and the morphine drip of free money from the Fed. So the patient is still on morphine and the reason is because of extreme weakness. The economy just isn’t strong enough to survive on its own. The stock market no longer rallies to the tune of increased retail sales, growing export markets or improved …

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Monday, April 29, 2013 – A Busy Week Heading in the Same Direction

A Busy Week Heading in the Same Direction by Sinclair Noe DOW + 106 = 14,818SPX + 11 = 1593NAS + 27 = 330710 YR YLD + .01 = 1.67%OIL + .58 = 93.58GOLD + 13.60 = 1477.50SILV + .55 = 24.69  The S&P 500 index ended at an all-time high. We have a celebration when the Dow Industrial Average closes at an all time high; no party for the S&P 500. I wish I could give you a valid reason for this but it defies logic. There is no law that says you can’t enjoy milk and cookies anyway. This week offers a packed economic calendar,with ISM manufacturing data Wednesday, and PMI manufacturing reports for the euro zone and China on Thursday. The week ends with Friday’s U.S. employment report, expected to show 150,000 new nonfarm payrolls in April; and the backdrop to all the information is last Friday’s initial report on first quarter GDP, which came in at 2.5%, short of the consensus forecast of 3%.  Also, we’ll compare and contrast this week’s news with last week’s reports out of Europe showing economic weakness in Germany as well really bad weakness in the peripheral countires where unemployment is rising from one awful record to another. In Spain, for example, the rate increased to 27.2%, with an even more stunning 57.2% rate among the young. In Greece, the unemployment rate tops 27% and the government is cutting thousands more jobs to qualify for more ECB bailout money. The European …

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Thursday, March 14, 2013 – Infinite Possibilities

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend. Infinite Possibilities by Sinclair Noe DOW + 83 = 14,539SPX + 8 = 1563NAS + 13 = 3258 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.03%OIL + .41 = 92.78GOLD + 2.60 = 1591.30SILV – .11 = 28.91 March 14 is Pi Day, the official celebration of the mathematical constant pi, the number that represents the ratio of a circle’s circumference to its diameter. What makes pi so special? It is an incredibly complex way to describe the simplest shape; a circle. No matter how large or small the circle, the ratio is always 3.1415926, I could go on forever with the number because, as an irrational number, pi never ends. Some scientific types have calculated pi to 10 trillion digits, but the numbers of pi are random, with no repeating patterns. So pi has an unknown, infinite quality. It never ends, and since it is really a circle, it has no beginning. So, today is a day of infinite of infinite possibilities. Case in point. The Dow posted a record high again. This is the tenth straight day of gains on …

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Wednesday, March 13, 2013 – The World Changes, Some Things Don’t

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend. The World Changes, Some Things Don’t by Sinclair Noe DOW + 5 = 14,455SPX + 2 = 1554NAS + 2 = 324510 YR YLD un = 2.02%OIL – .03 = 92.51GOLD – 5.00 = 1588.70SILV – .23 = 29.02 Today, the chimney billowed white smoke. The Catholic church has a new pope; Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio; he’ll be called Francis, and he is from Argentina. This is a big change; a non-European pope. Though there is some controversy, Pope Francis has been described as a modest man, a simple man, very much involved in social justice, and he is known for his service to the poor. The world changes. Some things don’t change. The poor are still poor, the rich are still rich. A new pope doesn’t change that. Record highs for the Dow Industrial Average does not change that. The wealthiest 10 percent of households own 80 percent of all corporate stocks. It is good times for corporate America. Even as corporate profits have rocketed up by 20 percent a year since the end of 2008, the chieftains are still refusing …

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Thursday, March 07, 2013 – Banks Rule the Law

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click here or call 480-820-5877. Banks Rule the Law by Sinclair Noe DOW + 33 = 14,329SPX + 2 = 1544 NAS + 9 = 323210 YR YLD + .05 = 1.99%OIL + 1.09 = 91.52GOLD – 5.90 = 1579.60SILV – .16 = 28.98 Another day, another record high close. It seems blasé, these little record high celebrations; and the more we see it the more mundane, but you’ll miss it when it’s gone. When will it be gone? I’ll let the market tell us. Right now the market is telling us that it is hitting record highs. Is there a disconnect between the market and the economy? Yes, there is. We have seen improvements in the economy, and we have some economic reports to cover in just a moment, but this is not a great, robust economy. So, can we expect a bubble in the market? Not necessarily. It’s certainly possible, but as of today, there is not a bubble. Check tomorrow. It is possible to have a less than perfect economy and to have record highs in the stock market; in fact, it’s not uncommon: 1929, 1937, 1946, 1966, 1982; market highs, rough economic times. At some point you might expect the markets to reflect the economy, meaning you might expect a bubble; maybe tomorrow, maybe three years, or maybe longer. The markets …

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Tuesday, March 05, 2013 – Milk and Cookies

Milk and Cookies by Sinclair Noe DOW + 125 = 14,253.77SPX + 14 = 1539NAS + 42 = 3224 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.89%OIL + . 50 = 90.62GOLD + .80 = 1576.40SILV + .16 = 28.80 The Dow has recovered all of its losses from the financial crisis and the small”d”depression, gaining 119 percent from its low in March 2009, making this the third-strongest bull market for the Dow since World War II. Though the Dow has erased its memories of the crisis, many households aren’t so lucky: Neither jobs nor wages have regained their pre-crisis highs. Home prices are still nearly 26 percent below their level when the Dow last peaked, and about 14 million homeowners are still underwater on their mortgages. The job market has recovered only 5.5 million of the 8.7 million jobs lost during the downturn. With the job market weak, worker wages have stagnated. Inflation-adjusted average income is 8 percent lower than in 2007, when the Dow was at its previous high. A chart of the stock market points to the upper right hand corner, while a chart of hourly earnings is just a flat line. Higher stock prices do tend to benefit the more affluent. This might eventually provide a lift for the broader economy, or it might just be enough to sucker Mom and Pop investors into the market again; you remember those folks who were clobbered, twice in the past 13 years; those folks who were steamrolled by the …

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Thursday, February 28, 2013 – How Now, Dow Jones

I will be speaking at the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ, April 5 & 6. For information please click here. This is an excellent conference. Hope to see you there. How Now, Dow Jones by Sinclair Noe DOW – 20 = 14,054SPX – 1 = 1514 NAS – 2 = 3160 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.89%OIL – .91 = 91.85GOLD – 16.80 = 1580.50SILV – .47 = 28.61 Kate can now marry Herbert; or is it Charley? I don’t remember; the idea was part of a play from the late 60’s, called “How Now, Dow Jones” and the idea was that the girl had been engaged for about 4 years to a stock broker, and the guy was putting off marriage on the pretext of having to wait until the Dow Industrial hit a record high, which back then meant a move above 1,000. The Dow closed above 1,000 in November 1972, and then it floundered through the 70’s and didn’t close above 1,000 again until 1982. So, we didn’t hit the record high today. No milk and cookies. I don’t remember what happened to Kate. Records are made to be broken but its not easy. Even when the Federal Reserve is juicing the market, it isn’t easy. Records are may to be broken. It doesn’t happen when you expect. The Nasdaq is still some 38% below its all-time high of 5,132.50, which was hit on March 10, 2000. In inflation-adjusted terms, this market average is …

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