Financial Review

Sheepish Algorithms

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 75 = 18,053 SPX + 9 = 2108 NAS + 33 = 5104 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.40% OIL + .84 = 53.04 GOLD – 2.70 = 1155.80 SILV – .13 = 15.48   The stock market posted its first 4-day winning streak since January. The S&P 500 last week fell as much as 4 percent from its all-time high, and has since recovered to trade within 1 percent of its record set in May. The S&P 500 and the Dow are up 3 percent over four sessions, while the Nasdaq Composite has added 4 percent. The United States and other world powers reached an agreement with Iran that calls for limits on Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting economic sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy, enabling the oil-rich nation to ramp up its energy exports, access international finance and open the doors to global investors. Full implementation of the agreement will likely take months and is contingent on the pace at which Iran meets its obligations. The deal will keep Iran from producing enough material for an atomic weapon for at least 10 years and impose provisions for inspections of Iranian facilities, including military sites.   Oil prices initially dropped when the Iran deal was announced, but then prices climbed higher. The oil markets were not surprised by the news announcement, and a …

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Financial Review

Understanding Global Banking

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-11-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 38 = 18,039 SPX + 3 = 2130 NAS + 5 = 5082 10 YR YLD – .10 = 2.38% OIL – .87 = 60.56 GOLD – 3.60 = 1183.00 SILV + .02 = 16.13     Retail sales rose 1.2% in May on a seasonally adjusted basis.  Auto dealers and gasoline stations posted the strongest sales, but most major retail segments saw healthy gains. What’s more, sales in April and March were stronger than initially reported. Sales at auto dealers rose 2%; the auto sector generates about one-fifth of all retail spending. Sales were up 3.7% at gasoline stations as the price of fuel crept higher. Even if autos and gasoline are excluded, retail sales rose a healthy 0.7%.   Separately, the Federal Reserve reports household debt grew just 2.2% in the first quarter, as a 0.3% fall in mortgage debt offset a 5.6% rise in auto loans, student loans and credit cards. At the same time, real estate value increased by $411 billion. The net effect is that household net worth jumped $1.6 trillion. Meanwhile, corporate debt grew at a 7.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter as businesses pile on debt before a possible Fed rate increase.   The number of US workers who applied for unemployment benefits in the first week of June edged up by 2,000 to 279,000. Claims have been below …

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Financial Review

No Small Thing

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 7 = 18,060 SPX – 0.64 = 2098 NAS + 5 = 4981 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.28% OIL – .62 = 60.13 GOLD + 22.10 = 1216.10 SILV + .61 = 17.19   U.S. retail sales were flat in April. Americans went out to eat more and made plenty of Internet purchases, but we cut back on gasoline, autos, home furnishings and electronic goods, among other things. While March’s retail sales were revised up to show a 1.1 percent increase instead of the previously reported 0.9 percent rise, that was not enough to offset the general weak tone of the report. Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services were also unchanged. Core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.   You can’t blame the bad winter weather for this report. The American consumer is acting in a most bizarre manner…, they are not spending, they are saving. The most recent data, from March, shows that Americans saved 5.3% of their pre-tax income, down from 5.7% in February. But the average savings rate so far in 2015 is higher than it was last year and in 2013. Savings spiked following the recession, but it was widely expected the savings rate would eventually fall back to the pre-bubble rates of 3% or 4%. Yea, that’s not …

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Financial Review

Rocket Science

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 59 = 18,036 SPX + 3 = 2095 NAS – 10 = 4977 10 YR YLD – .04 = 1.90% OIL + 1.38 = 53.29 GOLD – 6.10 = 1192.90 SILV – .13 = 16.23 For the past 3 months, retail sales have been down. There was some speculation that the harsh winter weather was to blame for declining sales; and that appears to be true. Retail sales rose in March for the first time since late last year as consumers stepped up purchases of automobiles and other goods. Retail sales increased 0.9 percent in March. That was the largest gain since March last year and snapped three straight months of declines. In a separate report, the Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand increased 0.2 percent last month, with rising prices for goods accounting for more than half of the increase. The PPI, which measures prices at the wholesale level, had declined 0.5 percent in February.  In the 12 months through March, producer prices fell 0.8 percent, the biggest year-on-year decline since the revamped series started in 2009. Of course, the Federal Reserve has a 2 percent inflation target, so this data does not suggest the Fed needs to be in a hurry to raise rates.   The National Federation of Independent Business said its small-business optimism index fell 2.8 points to 95.2, …

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Financial Review

Maybe GM Is Too Damn Stupid To Exist

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 259 = 17,895 SPX + 25 = 2065 NAS + 43 = 4893 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.10% OIL – 1.14 = 47.03 Tuesday was one of the worst days for Wall Street in months; today we saw the biggest rally in a month. Go figure. The Dow and the S&P were up nearly 1.5%; the Nasdaq less of a gain as Intel warned that first-quarter sales would be below its previous outlook, given weaker-than-expected demand for business desktop PCs and lower inventory levels in the PC supply chain. Another day, another central bank jumps on the easing bandwagon.  South Korea joined twenty four countries across the globe by easing monetary policy in 2015. Taking advantage of low inflation, the Bank of Korea cut its base rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 1.75%. South Korea also previously cut its forecast for this year’s economic growth to 3.4% in January from 3.9%, and they are widely expected to lower it again next month as China’s growth continues to slow and much of Europe flounders.   The IMF has approved a bigger bailout for Ukraine, giving Kiev immediate access to $5 billion of the $17.5 billion in emergency funding to keep the country afloat. Kiev’s conflict with pro-Russian separatists has put the country’s economy into a tailspin with a plunging currency, the highest interest …

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Financial Review

Banks Under Assault

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 186 = 17,427 SPX – 11 = 2011 NAS – 22 = 4639 10 YR YLD – .05 = 1.84% OIL + .28 = 46.17 GOLD – 1.80 = 1230.10 SILV – .25 = 16.94 The roller coaster ride continues, with a 345 point swing in the Dow Industrials from the intraday high and low. A couple of economic reports set the stage this morning. First, retail sales in the US sank in December largely because of cheaper gasoline prices, but most stores posted surprisingly weak results during the busiest month of the shopping season. Sales at retailers dropped a seasonally adjusted 0.9% last month to mark the biggest decline in nearly a year. Excluding gas and car sales, retail sales fell 0.3%. It was the biggest decline for retail sales in 11 months. One month does not make a trend but this kind of puts a dent in the idea that consumers would save money at the gas station but spend elsewhere. Instead it looks like people are tightening purse strings, which is symptomatic of deleveraging and deflation; it might also be indicative of how much the economy has changed in terms of job stability, wage stagnation, and retirement prospects; all of which point to much greater pressures to save. The Federal Reserve then offered confirmation of a weak sales. The Fed’s Beige Book said most …

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Financial Review

Before the Flood

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-11-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 63 = 17,596 SPX + 9 = 2035 NAS + 24 = 4708 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.18% OIL – 1.22 = 59.72 GOLD + 1.30 = 1228.40 SILV + .04 = 17.20 We have a lot to cover. Let’s start with the economic news. The government reported early this morning that retail sales in November expanded at the fastest pace in eight months, rising 0.7%. A wide variety of retailers reported healthy sales last month. Retail sales growth hit 1.7% for autos, the most since August; and 1.2% for clothing, the most since April. Sales at building material and garden equipment stores jumped 1.4%, the most since April; while online or non-store retailers saw a 1% sales gain. The Commerce Department reports business inventories rose 0.2% in October, as building material and clothing stores both built stocks heading into the holiday season. That represents a 4.8% gain from October 2013. The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits hit the lowest level in three weeks, as employers continued to lay off very few workers. Initial claims for regular state unemployment-insurance benefits inched down by 3,000 to 294,000 in the week that ended Dec. 6. The prices paid for imported goods fell 1.5% in November, the largest drop since June 2012, dragged down by lower fuel prices. Excluding fuel, import prices declined by 0.2% …

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Financial Review

Third World Stuff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-15-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 173 = 16,141 SPX – 15 = 1862 NAS – 11 = 4215 10 YR YLD – .11 = 2.09% OIL – .13 = 81.71 GOLD + 8.90 = 1242.10 SILV + .05 = 17.55 Go back a mere 18 trading sessions and the market was at all-time highs. The Dow hit an intraday high of 17,350 and a closing high of 17,279, on September 19th; that was 18 trading sessions in the past. For the Nasdaq composite we have seen a 10% correction from recent highs. That means this drop happened fast, and it also means the bear may have more room to run; this move is not mature in terms of duration or magnitude. The major indices have dropped under the 200 day moving average; we were waiting for confirmation; we got it. The S&P looked to bounce off a different trendline. If you draw a straight line across the S&P lows beginning with the lows from 2011, which is where we saw support and a bounce today, at the 1820 level; it is also very close to the support levels from April at about 1815, which we talked about on Monday. That is an intermediate level of support, but it held today, and you have to respect the line, unless or until it breaks down. Once we hit certain levels, people start to feel the pain and …

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Financial Review

The Brute Economic Power of Oil

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE_SEG_1-09-12-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 61 = 16,987 SPX – 11 = 1985 NAS – 24 = 4567 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.61% OIL – .58 = 92.25 GOLD – 11.90 = 1229.30 SILV – .06 = 18.71 For the week, the Dow was down 0.9%, the S&P 500 was down 1.1% and the Nasdaq was down 0.3%. Let’s start with the economic data: Business inventories rose 0.4 percent in July vs a 0.8% rise in business sales that keeps the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at a healthy and lean 1.29. In a separate report, retail sales and consumer sentiment pointed at an improving economy. The preliminary September reading on the University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters consumer-sentiment index rose to the highest level since July 2013 and topped consensus expectations. Sales at US retailers rose in August by the largest amount since April, sales were up 0.6%; raising confidence in the economic outlook for the second half of the year. Retail sales would have been higher, but the price of gas dropped; after excluding gasoline, spending rose 0.7% in August. Of course, one of the reasons Americans spent more money going out and eating and shopping is because the price of gasoline has been low. Spending at gas stations declined an estimated 0.8% in August. That followed a flat July and another 0.8% drop in June. A separate report from the Labor Department on Friday …

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Uncategorized

Thursday, February 13, 2014 – The Popsicle Economy

The Popsicle Economy by Sinclair Noe DOW + 63 = 16,027SPX + 10 = 1829NAS + 39 = 424010 YR YLD – .02 = 2.73%OIL – .02 = 100.35GOLD + 11.00 = 1303.80SILV + .25 = 20.59 According to the latest AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, over the last week the number of self-described bulls jumped to over 40% while bears plunged from over 36% to 27%. Did all those people suddenly become timing experts or is this an indication that it’s time to take profits? The number of Americans who applied to receive unemployment benefits rose last week and the gradual decline in claims since last year appears to have halted. Initial jobless claims climbed by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 339,000 in the seven days ended Feb. 8. RealtyTrac reports monthly foreclosure filings — including default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — reversed course and increased 8% to 124,419 in January from December. One month does not make a trend, but the foreclosure rebound pattern is not only showing up in judicial states like New Jersey, where foreclosure activity reached a 40-month high in January, but also some non-judicial states like California, where foreclosure starts jumped 57% from a year ago, following 17 consecutive months of annual decreases. As a whole, 57,259 US properties started the foreclosure process for the first time in January, rising 10% from December but still down 12% from last year. On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.4% from December to January (seasonally …

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