Financial Review

Rocket Science

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 59 = 18,036 SPX + 3 = 2095 NAS – 10 = 4977 10 YR YLD – .04 = 1.90% OIL + 1.38 = 53.29 GOLD – 6.10 = 1192.90 SILV – .13 = 16.23 For the past 3 months, retail sales have been down. There was some speculation that the harsh winter weather was to blame for declining sales; and that appears to be true. Retail sales rose in March for the first time since late last year as consumers stepped up purchases of automobiles and other goods. Retail sales increased 0.9 percent in March. That was the largest gain since March last year and snapped three straight months of declines. In a separate report, the Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand increased 0.2 percent last month, with rising prices for goods accounting for more than half of the increase. The PPI, which measures prices at the wholesale level, had declined 0.5 percent in February.  In the 12 months through March, producer prices fell 0.8 percent, the biggest year-on-year decline since the revamped series started in 2009. Of course, the Federal Reserve has a 2 percent inflation target, so this data does not suggest the Fed needs to be in a hurry to raise rates.   The National Federation of Independent Business said its small-business optimism index fell 2.8 points to 95.2, …

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Financial Review

Maybe GM Is Too Damn Stupid To Exist

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 259 = 17,895 SPX + 25 = 2065 NAS + 43 = 4893 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.10% OIL – 1.14 = 47.03 Tuesday was one of the worst days for Wall Street in months; today we saw the biggest rally in a month. Go figure. The Dow and the S&P were up nearly 1.5%; the Nasdaq less of a gain as Intel warned that first-quarter sales would be below its previous outlook, given weaker-than-expected demand for business desktop PCs and lower inventory levels in the PC supply chain. Another day, another central bank jumps on the easing bandwagon.  South Korea joined twenty four countries across the globe by easing monetary policy in 2015. Taking advantage of low inflation, the Bank of Korea cut its base rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 1.75%. South Korea also previously cut its forecast for this year’s economic growth to 3.4% in January from 3.9%, and they are widely expected to lower it again next month as China’s growth continues to slow and much of Europe flounders.   The IMF has approved a bigger bailout for Ukraine, giving Kiev immediate access to $5 billion of the $17.5 billion in emergency funding to keep the country afloat. Kiev’s conflict with pro-Russian separatists has put the country’s economy into a tailspin with a plunging currency, the highest interest …

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Financial Review

Banks Under Assault

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 186 = 17,427 SPX – 11 = 2011 NAS – 22 = 4639 10 YR YLD – .05 = 1.84% OIL + .28 = 46.17 GOLD – 1.80 = 1230.10 SILV – .25 = 16.94 The roller coaster ride continues, with a 345 point swing in the Dow Industrials from the intraday high and low. A couple of economic reports set the stage this morning. First, retail sales in the US sank in December largely because of cheaper gasoline prices, but most stores posted surprisingly weak results during the busiest month of the shopping season. Sales at retailers dropped a seasonally adjusted 0.9% last month to mark the biggest decline in nearly a year. Excluding gas and car sales, retail sales fell 0.3%. It was the biggest decline for retail sales in 11 months. One month does not make a trend but this kind of puts a dent in the idea that consumers would save money at the gas station but spend elsewhere. Instead it looks like people are tightening purse strings, which is symptomatic of deleveraging and deflation; it might also be indicative of how much the economy has changed in terms of job stability, wage stagnation, and retirement prospects; all of which point to much greater pressures to save. The Federal Reserve then offered confirmation of a weak sales. The Fed’s Beige Book said most …

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Financial Review

Before the Flood

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-11-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 63 = 17,596 SPX + 9 = 2035 NAS + 24 = 4708 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.18% OIL – 1.22 = 59.72 GOLD + 1.30 = 1228.40 SILV + .04 = 17.20 We have a lot to cover. Let’s start with the economic news. The government reported early this morning that retail sales in November expanded at the fastest pace in eight months, rising 0.7%. A wide variety of retailers reported healthy sales last month. Retail sales growth hit 1.7% for autos, the most since August; and 1.2% for clothing, the most since April. Sales at building material and garden equipment stores jumped 1.4%, the most since April; while online or non-store retailers saw a 1% sales gain. The Commerce Department reports business inventories rose 0.2% in October, as building material and clothing stores both built stocks heading into the holiday season. That represents a 4.8% gain from October 2013. The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits hit the lowest level in three weeks, as employers continued to lay off very few workers. Initial claims for regular state unemployment-insurance benefits inched down by 3,000 to 294,000 in the week that ended Dec. 6. The prices paid for imported goods fell 1.5% in November, the largest drop since June 2012, dragged down by lower fuel prices. Excluding fuel, import prices declined by 0.2% …

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Financial Review

Third World Stuff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-15-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 173 = 16,141 SPX – 15 = 1862 NAS – 11 = 4215 10 YR YLD – .11 = 2.09% OIL – .13 = 81.71 GOLD + 8.90 = 1242.10 SILV + .05 = 17.55 Go back a mere 18 trading sessions and the market was at all-time highs. The Dow hit an intraday high of 17,350 and a closing high of 17,279, on September 19th; that was 18 trading sessions in the past. For the Nasdaq composite we have seen a 10% correction from recent highs. That means this drop happened fast, and it also means the bear may have more room to run; this move is not mature in terms of duration or magnitude. The major indices have dropped under the 200 day moving average; we were waiting for confirmation; we got it. The S&P looked to bounce off a different trendline. If you draw a straight line across the S&P lows beginning with the lows from 2011, which is where we saw support and a bounce today, at the 1820 level; it is also very close to the support levels from April at about 1815, which we talked about on Monday. That is an intermediate level of support, but it held today, and you have to respect the line, unless or until it breaks down. Once we hit certain levels, people start to feel the pain and …

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Financial Review

The Brute Economic Power of Oil

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE_SEG_1-09-12-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 61 = 16,987 SPX – 11 = 1985 NAS – 24 = 4567 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.61% OIL – .58 = 92.25 GOLD – 11.90 = 1229.30 SILV – .06 = 18.71 For the week, the Dow was down 0.9%, the S&P 500 was down 1.1% and the Nasdaq was down 0.3%. Let’s start with the economic data: Business inventories rose 0.4 percent in July vs a 0.8% rise in business sales that keeps the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at a healthy and lean 1.29. In a separate report, retail sales and consumer sentiment pointed at an improving economy. The preliminary September reading on the University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters consumer-sentiment index rose to the highest level since July 2013 and topped consensus expectations. Sales at US retailers rose in August by the largest amount since April, sales were up 0.6%; raising confidence in the economic outlook for the second half of the year. Retail sales would have been higher, but the price of gas dropped; after excluding gasoline, spending rose 0.7% in August. Of course, one of the reasons Americans spent more money going out and eating and shopping is because the price of gasoline has been low. Spending at gas stations declined an estimated 0.8% in August. That followed a flat July and another 0.8% drop in June. A separate report from the Labor Department on Friday …

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Thursday, February 13, 2014 – The Popsicle Economy

The Popsicle Economy by Sinclair Noe DOW + 63 = 16,027SPX + 10 = 1829NAS + 39 = 424010 YR YLD – .02 = 2.73%OIL – .02 = 100.35GOLD + 11.00 = 1303.80SILV + .25 = 20.59 According to the latest AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, over the last week the number of self-described bulls jumped to over 40% while bears plunged from over 36% to 27%. Did all those people suddenly become timing experts or is this an indication that it’s time to take profits? The number of Americans who applied to receive unemployment benefits rose last week and the gradual decline in claims since last year appears to have halted. Initial jobless claims climbed by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 339,000 in the seven days ended Feb. 8. RealtyTrac reports monthly foreclosure filings — including default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — reversed course and increased 8% to 124,419 in January from December. One month does not make a trend, but the foreclosure rebound pattern is not only showing up in judicial states like New Jersey, where foreclosure activity reached a 40-month high in January, but also some non-judicial states like California, where foreclosure starts jumped 57% from a year ago, following 17 consecutive months of annual decreases. As a whole, 57,259 US properties started the foreclosure process for the first time in January, rising 10% from December but still down 12% from last year. On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.4% from December to January (seasonally …

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Tuesday, August 13, 2013 – Metric Disconnects

Metric Disconnects by Sinclair Noe DOW + 31 = 15451SPX + 4 = 1694NAS + 14 = 368410 YR YLD + .11 = 2.71%OIL + .42 = 106.53GOLD – 15.90 = 1322.40SILV + .03 = 21.56 Retail sales rose 0.2% in July, following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in June; retail sales are now up for 4 consecutive months. The retail sales report is important because consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the economy. We’ve heard that so frequently that it sounds like a cliché, but when we spend, that money circulates through the economy and it is the vital life blood of the economy. Areas showing gains included restaurants and bars, grocery stores and sporting goods outlets. Within general merchandise, department stores showed a 0.6 percent increase in sales last month Another Commerce Department report today showed inventories at US companies were little changed. Merchants had enough goods on hand to last 1.29 months at the current sales pace in June. Atlanta Federal Reserve bank President Dennis Lockhart says he thinks policy makers should move cautiously this year to scale back its bond buying program. Lockhart says the Fed might make its first reduction before the end of the year, maybe as soon as September, and that it should be thought of as a cautious first step. So, Lockhart was a bit more dovish than other Fed policy makers of late, and as he made the comments, small losses on Wall Street gave way to modest gains. The …

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Monday, July 15, 2013 – Lazy Days of Summer

Lazy Days of Summer by Sinclair Noe DOW + 19 = 15484SPX + 2 = 1682NAS + 7 = 360710 YR YLD – .04 = 2.55%OIL + .52 = 106.47GOLD – 1.60 = 1284.20SILV + .01 = 20.03 On a quiet Monday in the middle of the summer, in the middle of July, stocks pulled out modest gains today, but it was good enough for another record for the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500. The S&P posted its 8th consecutive advance. The Nasdaq 100 posted its 14th consecutive advance. Volume was light, the slowest trading session of any full trading day this year. So, this record setting rally is looking a little long in the tooth. The Commerce Department reports retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month, that was less than expected. Let’s break it down: Sales got a big lift in June from the auto industry, with purchases up 1.8%. That’s the biggest gain since last November. Gasoline sales, meanwhile, climbed 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis.  Sales also rose for home-furnishings, pharmaceuticals, personal care, clothes and hobby items. Sales fell 2.2% at home-improvement stores, by 1.2% at bars and restaurants and by 1% at department stores. The auto sector generates about one-fifth of all retail spending. Excluding autos, sales were unchanged. So, here’s what is happening; the price of gas is going up; people are trading in their old gas guzzlers for more fuel efficient cars; the savings on gas pay for the newer car. …

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Uncategorized

Monday, November 19, 2012 – Debtmageddon: the Non-Problem Problem

Debtmageddon: the Non-Problem Problem by Sinclair Noe DOW + 207 = 12,795SPX + 27 = 1386NAS + 62 = 291610 YR YLD +.04 = 1.61%OIL + 1.22 = 86.67GOLD + 18.20 = 1732.90 SILV + .80 = 33.21 Pete Domenici and Alice Rivlin are co-chairs of the Bipartisan Policy Center for Debt Reduction Task Force, offering the following recommendations in an article in the New York Times over the weekend: Economic growth must precede full-scale debt restraint. Congress should take action now to pass legislation phasing in tax reform that yields new revenues and restructuring entitlements to curb the continued growth of federal spending, particularly for health care. We cannot resort to such ham-handed mechanisms as the approaching sequester cuts, large across-the-board tax increases and other elements of the “fiscal cliff.” In late 2010, the task force recommended a holiday from the full 12.4 percent Social Security payroll tax, not the partial 2 percent cut that Congress ultimately passed. The idea is that whether it comes in the form of a payroll tax holiday, an income tax rebate or another similar mechanism, the most pressing priority is to get the economy out of “stall speed.” The task force also suggested a possible “framework” for the lame-duck Congress to pass a modest down payment on deficit reduction in December, while pursuing a comprehensive agreement, a “grand bargain” of sorts, in 2013. If I may break it down in a nutshell; growth before austerity. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke will travel …

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