Financial Review

Life Comes at You Fast

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-28-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow hits another record. 2Q GDP at 2.6%, meh. Skinny repeal is dead. Reince Priebus gone. Royal Dutch Shell – buy an electric car. Shrinking airline seats. Wells Fargo behaving badly again. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-28-2017

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Financial Review

Quiet, Almost Too Quiet

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-09-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Flat days the new norm. Glass-Steagall lives? ECB holds steady. Layoffs down. Jobless claims up. AZ loses jobs in Jan. Bill Gross on the Trump mirage and nitro on a bumpy road. 10-year note crosses 2.6%. No sale on paint. GE sells water works. Sears fading away. Flippers got legs. Happy and healthy cities. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-09-2017

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Financial Review

Break Down

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-01-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Stock break support. Fed starts FOMC meeting. BOJ holds steady below zero. ISM manufacturing up. Obamacare open enrollment starts. Construction spending drops. Corelogic home price index up. Cars sales down in October. Gas pipeline blowout in Alabama. Oil drops. Shell makes more than Exxon. Freddie Mac pays off. Valeant under investigation but they can still sell their assets. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-01-2016

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Financial Review

Canoe Trips on Mars

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-28-2015   DOW – 312 = 16,001 SPX – 49 = 1881 NAS – 142 = 4543 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.09% OIL – .03 = 44.40 GOLD – 14.20 = 1133.10 SILV – .53 = 14.70   Well, this was just ugly. All three major indices traded in correction territory today or more than 10 percent below their 52-week highs. For the Nasdaq Composite, the 50 day moving average crossed the 200 day moving average, forming a pattern that goes by the catchy name “death cross”. The Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF closed down 6.3%, following a 5% drop on Friday.   Shares in mining and trading company Glencore fell almost 30 percent and closed at a record low, wiping out more than $5 billion in market valuation. The fall followed publication of a note by analysts at investment bank Investec which raised doubts about Glencore’s valuation if spot metal prices do not improve. The note pointed to high debt levels and a need for deeper restructuring. The analysts wrote: “If major commodity prices remain at current levels, our analysis implies that, in the absence of substantial restructuring, nearly all the equity value of both Glencore and Anglo American could evaporate.” Glencore, a Swiss based company, has said it will suspend dividends, sell assets and raise cash with a $2.5 billion share placement, among other measures, to cut its …

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Financial Review

First Do No Harm

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-17-2015 DOW – 65 = 16,674 SPX – 5 = 1990 NAS + 4 = 4893 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.22% OIL – .25 = 46.90 GOLD + 11.80 = 1132.00 SILV + .21 = 15.24   The Fed will raise rates someday, just not today. The FOMC issued their statement today, and they left interest rates unchanged, again. The biggest change in the wording dealt with international markets, saying: “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.”   The statement also included this new line: “The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced, but is monitoring developments abroad.” You may recall that China was also frequently referenced in the Beige Book published a couple of weeks ago in preparation for this FOMC meeting.   The Fed also released their economic projections and they seem to be forecasting more of the same: GDP just over 2% for 2015, the unemployment rate finishing the year at 5%, inflation still significantly short of their target, and the outlook for a rate hike before the end of the year. But don’t bet on it; this Fed might never get off the Schneid. There will be growing pressure for a rate hike, …

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Financial Review

Sliding Into the Close

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 12.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-03-20015   DOW + 23 = 16,374 SPX + 2 = 1951 NAS – 16 = 4733 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.17% OIL – .12 = 46.63 GOLD – 8.70 = 1126.00 SILV + .03 = 14.83   Wall Street started the session on a high note, but could not hold it. Stocks slipped into the close and the Nasdaq turned red for the day. The stakes couldn’t be higher for the tomorrow morning’s August employment report, even though the month has typically been cursed by disappointment. The consensus guesstimate calls for about 215,000 to 220,000 new jobs created in August, with the unemployment rate holding at 5.3%, but August is notorious for misses. From 2005 to 2014, forecasters have over-estimated the initial August payrolls print seven times, including in each of the past four years. What’s more, the Labor Department (excluding annual and benchmark revisions) has marked up its first estimate in subsequent months in eight of the past 10 years. Part of the puzzle of forecasting August payrolls is the difficulty in adjusting for annual changes in the school-year calendar. Financial-market turmoil, at least, probably did little to impact hiring decisions in August. The government surveys households and businesses in the week that contains the 12th of the month, so the data will reflect responses covering the Aug. 9-15 period; that was a few days before the market …

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Financial Review

While the Getting is Good

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 56 = 17958 SPX + 9 = 2091 NAS + 23 = 4974 10 YR YLD + .06 = 1.96% OIL + .37 = 50.79 GOLD – 8.70 = 1194.50 SILV – .36 = 16.25   Initial claims for unemployment benefits increased 14,000 to 281,000 in the week ending April 4th.  Over the past 4 weeks, jobless claims have averaged 282,500 a week; the lowest level in 15 years. While companies are maintaining headcounts, job listings also have climbed. Openings rose to 5.1 million in February, the most since January 2001, according to the JOLTS report on Tuesday.   Wholesale inventories rose 0.3% in February as wholesale sales fell 0.2%, perhaps a sign that companies experienced less demand in late winter that could cause them to temporarily scale back production.   In a televised speech today, Iran’s  supreme leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Tehran would agree to a final nuclear accord with the US and five other nations only if all sanctions over its disputed nuclear work were lifted.  In remarks apparently meant to keep hardline loyalists on side, he warned about the “devilish” intentions of the United States. Meanwhile, Iran’s oil minister, speaking today in China said that OPEC would “coordinate” to accommodate Iran’s return to oil markets without causing a price crash.   Samsung Electronics expects to ship record numbers of its new Galaxy S6 smartphone after it goes …

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Financial Review

Goodbye Patience

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 27 = 17,902 SPX + 5 = 2081 NAS + 40 = 4950 10 YR YLD un = 1.89% OIL – 3.05 = 50.93 GOLD – 5.50 = 1203.20 SILV – .32 = 16.61   We start today with a big acquisition in the oil industry. Royal Dutch Shell agreed to buy BG Group for about $70 billion in cash and shares, the oil and gas industry’s biggest deal in at least a decade; since 2004 when Royal Dutch Shell was created. This is the biggest acquisition this year and the 10th biggest M&A deal overall, and the fourth biggest deal overall in the oil industry. The merged company will boast a market value twice the size of BP, and even larger than Chevron. ExxonMobil is still the 800 pound gorilla with market cap north of $350 billion.   To win over shareholders, Shell pledged cost savings of $2.5 billion, asset disposals of at least $30 billion within four years and a giant buyback of $25 billion from 2017 to 2020. Shell investors reacted coolly to the deal. Shell’s B shares, the class of stock being used to finance the deal, fell about 7% percent in London. For BG it represents a 50% premium.   BG Group is the exploration part of the former state owned British Gas that was privatized by Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s. …

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Financial Review

Fed Patiently Makes Hawkish Sounds

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 195 = 17,191 SPX – 27 = 2002 NAS – 43 = 4637 10 YR YLD – .10 = 1.72% OIL – 1.19 = 44.26 GOLD – 8.80 = 1284.30 SILV – .07 = 18.06 Microsoft’s stock logged its biggest one-day dollar decline in nearly 15 years on Tuesday, after the company posted disappointing earnings Monday afternoon. Shares of Microsoft closed down 9.2%, or $4.35, to $42.66 on Tuesday, wiping out $34.7 billion in stock-market value. The Dow Industrials dropped 291 points Tuesday. Then after the close of trade yesterday, Apple posted the largest quarterly net income of any public company in history; $18 billion. That provided an early boost to the markets today; at least until the FOMC statement. The Dow Industrials are down from record highs, but not too bad. Since hitting an intraday high of 18,103 on December 28th, the Dow has been choppy through January; on three occasions dropping down to the 17,200 range but not dropping under (17,262 on January 6th, 17,243 on January 16th, and 17,288 yesterday). These three lows formed a floor, or a level of support for the Dow. Today, the Dow closed at 17,191; we broke support. And the next level of support is 17,067 from mid-December and the big round number of 17,000. If we break the 17,000 support, the next level is 15,855 from mid-October. The …

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