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Thursday, November 29,2012 – Place Your Bets

Place Your Bets by Sinclair Noe Let’s start with the important numbers today: 5, 16, 22, 23, 29, and the Powerball 6. And I did not win. Somebody in Missouri and somebody in Phoenix are holding the winning tickets. Not me. All I’m holding is a $10 piece of paper which is my donation to the tax fund for the mathematically challenged. DOW + 36 = 13,021SPX + 6 = 1415 NAS + 20 = 301210 YR YLD un = 1.62%OIL + 1.23 = 87.72GOLD + 6.00 = 1726.80SILV + .50 = 34.27 The U.S. economy grew at a 2.7 percent annual rate from July through September, much faster than first thought. The Commerce Department said growth in the third quarter was significantly better than the 2 percent rate estimated a month ago. And it was more than twice the 1.3 percent rate reported for the April-June quarter. The main reason for the upward revision to the gross domestic product was businesses restocked at a faster pace than previously estimated. That offset weaker consumer spending growth. The fourth quarter GDP is expected to drop back down below 2 percent because of Hurricane Sandy, which put the brakes on all sorts of business activity along the East Coast. And then the other reason cited for the possible fourth quarter slowdown is the fiscal cliff. (Sorry, we just can’t get through the day without talking about it.) So, here is the annotated version of today’s fiscal cliff report: a little partisan sniping, …

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Monday, June 11, 2012 – The Non-Bailout Spanish Bank Bailout – by Sinclair Noe

DOW – 142 = 12,411  SPX – 16 = 1308NAS – 48 = 280910 YR YLD -.04 = 1.60%OIL – 1.50 = 81.20GOLD + 1.40 = 1597.10SILV + .05 = 28.58PLAT + 13.00 = 1450.00 So, here’s the headline from the Murdoch Street Journal: “US Stocks Tumble as Spain Bank Bailout Optimism Fades”. And my question is how many phones did they have to hack before they found someone who was optimistic about the Spanish Bank Bailout? Over the weekend, Spain requested a bailout of up to 100 billion euros ($125 billion) in loans from the European Union to assist its banks. Statements about the deal left several open questions, including the exact amount of aid the country will need and how the funds will be distributed. What exactly is there to be optimistic about? Oh, the Euro did not explode over the weekend – that’s a relief but not a reason to be a big time buyer of equities. It’s not like the Spanish Bank Bailout makes anything better, except for the specific Spanish Banks being Bailed-Out. Europe still has a nasty circle of slow or no growth and increasing debt burdens. Greece’s first bailout in 2010 sparked a healthy 1.3 percent rally in the S&P 500 stock index on the following day, but subsequent rescues fostered more muted responses. The reaction after Spain’s bank bailout has been the most downbeat of the lot. The four prior bailouts – for Greece and Ireland in 2010, Portugal in 2011 and …

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Tuesday, May 01, 2012 – The Return of Occupy Wall Street

DOW + 65 = 13, 279 SPX + 7 = 1405NAS + 4 = 305010 YR YLD +.04 = 1.96%OIL – .15 = 106.01GOLD – 2.10 = 1663.20SILV -.04 = 31.07PLAT + 3.00 = 1577.00 The Dow Industrials hit the highest point since December 2007. Later this week we’ll have reports on retail sales and the big monthly jobs report on Friday. Today, the ISM reported their manufacturing index rose to 54.8% last month from 53.4% in March. The results were much better than anticipated. We may have hit a top in the stock market: Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said U.S. stocks offer good value and are likely to rise as corporate earnings increase over time. “Stocks are very cheap,” Greenspan said today at the Bloomberg Washington Summit hosted by Bloomberg Link, citing “a very low price-earnings ratio. There is no place for earnings to grow except into stock prices,” I mean, when Greenspan speaks it must be a contrary indicator. Today is the one year anniversary of the killing of Osama bin Laden. President Obama is in Afghanistan, and he’ll deliver a speech a little later. Today is also May Day. Occupy Wall Street is back; trying to resurrect the movement with May Day marches, which gained momentum through the day. Protesters marched on banks, chanted anti-corporate slogans, and clashed with police in an opening day of sorts for the movement’s summer revival. In New York, hundreds of protesters gathered in Union Square. A crowd surged out …

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