Financial Review

Send in the Clowns

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-22-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..1Q earnings season winds down. CBO scores AHCA. Pause on cost-sharing subsidies case. Trump tour sells big in Saudi Arabia. SCOTUS whacks patent trolls. NC must undo gerrymandering. Ford gets new CEO – share price is Job One. Huntsman-Clariant. Midwest fields flood. Citi’s Banamex laundered money in Mexico. The circus closes its tent. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-22-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

More Records

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-15-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Record highs for S&P and Nasdaq. Surviving Wannacry. Oil pops. OPEC may extend cuts. Saudis may invest in US infrastructure. Homebuilder confidence high. Thermo Fisher buys Patheon. Moody’s buys Bureau van Dijk. Amazon IPO 20th anniversary. Who will they crush next? Waymo beats Uber in court, then teams up with Lyft. Philly sues Wells Fargo.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-15-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

The Rebalancing

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSGoldman Sachs says oil rebalancing has begun; how it plays out over time. Plus, M&A on Monday, Warren bites on Apple, Hawaii punches Takata, and Supreme no-decision. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-16-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Risk Off

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-11-2016_2_.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-11-2016 DOW – 254 = 15,660 SPX – 22 = 1829 NAS – 16 = 4266 10 Y – .06 = 1.64% OIL – .17 = 27.28 GOLD It’s a bad day for global stock markets.  Markets in Hong Kong opened for the first time this week and had their worst start to a lunar new year since 1994, falling 3.9 percent, adding to a 12% plunge since the beginning of the year. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index lost 2.2 percent. The Europe Stoxx 600 dropped 3.6%.   In her testimony to Congress yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen was not certain whether she had the legal authority to cut rates into negative territory. Yellen on Wednesday said the crucial question confronting the Fed was whether the domestic economy is strong enough to keep growing modestly even as the global economy struggles. This is the question.   Today, Yellen headed over to the Senate Finance Committee and repeated her testimony from yesterday before opening it up for questions. Yellen said the cause of the market selloff is “not mainly our policy,” noting that the market was tranquil in the immediate aftermath of the increase in interest rates in mid-December. She doesn’t think the Fed will cut rates anytime soon. The key for the central bank is whether the negative shocks hitting the economy persist, Yellen said. The central bank will know more in …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

The Question

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-05-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-05-2016   DOW + 9 = 17,158 SPX + 4 = 2016 NAS – 11 = 4891 10 Y un= 2.25% OIL – .87 = 35.89 GOLD + 3.10 = 1078.50 The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its greatest opening-day loss since 2008 yesterday. Today might be considered a tepid recovery, or maybe just a reminder that the world did not end with the change of the calendar.   China moved to shore up shaky investor sentiment today following an equities selloff that rocked global financial markets on revived concerns about the country’s economic slowdown. China’s CSI 300 Index initially dropped 2%, but a late session rally erased losses and the index closed 0.3 percent. State-controlled funds bought equities and the securities regulator signaled that a selling ban for major investors which was due to expire this week may be extended. The People’s Bank of China pumped nearly $20 billion into the economy, the largest amount since September. The yuan rebounded from a five-year low.  The Nikkei 225-share index in Japan finished the day 0.4 percent lower. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong closed 0.7 percent down. European stocks rose, with the FTSE 100 in London up 0.7 percent for the day. The Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.4 percent.   Kuwait recalled its ambassador from Iran. The announcement is the latest in an unfolding regional row that escalated with Saudi Arabia’s execution of a Shiite …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Off to the Races

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-04-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-04-2016 DOW – 276 = 17,148 SPX – 31 = 2012 NAS – 104 = 4903 10 YR – .02 = 2.25% OIL – .11 = 36.93 GOLD + 13.50 = 1075.50 The Dow started the morning with a 467 point decline. An inauspicious start to trading in 2016 kicked off, or more accurately fell down, this morning in China. Traders in Shanghai reacted to growing tensions in the Middle East and a drop in one of China’s manufacturing gauges. Fresh manufacturing surveys revived concerns about Beijing’s economic slowdown. China’s manufacturing activity contracted for the 10th straight month in December – the official manufacturing PMI stood at 49.7 in December. The yuan, which began new extended trading hours today, also hit its lowest point in more than four years in both onshore and offshore trade.   The China CSI 300 Index dropped 5% and that triggered circuit breakers that resulted in a 30 minute halt in trading of all stocks. When trading resumed, the traders were scared and they rushed to exit their positions. In a matter of about 7 minutes the Index dropped to a loss of 7%, and the next round of circuit breakers triggered a halt to trading for the remainder of the day.   The benchmark Shanghai Composite index closed the shortened session down 6.85% while the broader CSI 300 index, encompassing the largest …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Commodity Crush

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-29-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-29-2015 DOW + 192 = 17,720 SPX + 21 = 2078 NAS + 66 = 5107 10 Y + .08 = 2.31% OIL + 1.06 = 37.87 GOLD + .50 = 1070.00   The Commerce Department reports the trade deficit grew to $60.5 billion in November – a three-month high – as exports declined more than imports. Exports of goods shrank 1.9% to $121 billion, the second straight monthly decline. Imports dropped a slim 0.2% to $181.5 billion in November. Trade has been a drag on growth in five of the last seven quarters, as the strong dollar and weak global economies have limited exports.   Home values in 20 U.S. cities rose at a faster pace in the year ended October as lean inventories of available properties combined with steadily improving demand. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values climbed 5.5 percent from October 2014 after rising 5.4 percent in the year ended September. A limited supply of properties for sale has helped prop up home values. Prices in Phoenix were up 0.5% from September to October and up 5.7% over the past 12 months ending in October. At the peak in 2006, prices in Phoenix were up 127% above the January 2000 level. Then prices in Phoenix fell slightly below the January 2000 level, and are now up 55% above January 2000 (55% nominal gain in almost …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Driving Down Third Avenue

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-28-2015 DOW – 23 = 17,528 SPX – 4 = 2056 NAS – 7 = 5040 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.23% OIL – 1.39 = 36.71 GOLD – 7.50 = 1069.80   Storms hit the South, Southwest and Midwest over the Christmas holiday weekend, unleashing floods and tornadoes that killed at least 43 people, flattened buildings and snarled transportation for millions during a busy travel time. The bad weather, or the threat of it, prompted the governors of Missouri and New Mexico to declare a state of emergency for their states. Flash floods killed at least 13 people in Missouri and Illinois. In Texas, at least 11 people were killed in the Dallas area over the weekend by tornadoes.   Oil prices were down again this morning, following a five-day rally that saw prices move to the highest level in three weeks. Iran repeated its goal of boosting exports after sanctions on the country are lifted. OPEC effectively abandoned output limits earlier this month. Today, Saudi Arabia announced it would boost production to defend its market share. The kingdom’s revenue from oil sales will make up about 70% of the budget next year, down from 73% this year and down from 89% last year. The Saudi 2016 budget is estimated to be based on a $37 a barrel for Brent oil prices; the first Saudi budget in …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Thoughts on Oil

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-07-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review with Sinclair Noe for 12-07-2015 DOW -117 = 17,730 SPX – 14 = 2077 NAS – 40 = 5101 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.20% OIL – 2.37 = 37.60 GOLD – 15.10 = 1072.20   Crude prices fell again in the first trading session after OPEC said over the weekend that it would maintain production at the current levels and made no decision on a new target ceiling. An oil glut has cut prices by more than 60% since June 2014. Abandoning an official output ceiling effectively codifies what OPEC has already done for the past year: ignore its previous target of 30 million barrels a day. The cartel produced 31.4 million barrels per day in October. Indonesia also rejoined OPEC on Friday (after being inactive since 2008), boosting the group’s participants to 13 members. Oil prices today dropped to levels last seen in 2009.   There has been an ongoing battle between OPEC and US shale producers with each side pumping massive amounts of oil in the hopes the other would cut production once crude became too cheap. The world isn’t going quite the way Saudi Arabia expected when it led OPEC to declare a pricing war against US shale drillers last year by flooding the market with crude oil. Far from being a quick kill, shale drillers have stubbornly held on, and OPEC has suffered along with them. Cheap …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

The New Norml

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 34 = 17,712 SPX + 4 = 2061 NAS + 27 = 4891 10 YR YLD – .06 = 1.95% OIL – 3.01 = 48.42 GOLD – 5.70 = 1199.40 SILV – .13 = 17.07   Modest gains on Wall Street today, but not nearly enough to make up for the four previous days of losses. It wound up being the second-worst week for the market so far this year. The Dow Jones industrial average remains down slightly for 2015, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index is essentially flat. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.2 percent, the Dow lost 2.3 percent and the Nasdaq declined 2.7 percent. The semiconductor sector was a leader today after a report that Intel is in talks to buy rival chipmaker Altera. Intel shares were up 6%; Altera shares were up 28%.   Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate last quarter. This was the Commerce Department’s third estimate of GDP, and it was unchanged from last month’s estimate.  Economic growth cooled in the fourth quarter and after-tax corporate profits recorded their biggest drop since early 2011, as a strong dollar dented the earnings of multinational corporations. The fourth quarter GDP was down from a very strong third quarter reading of 5% growth. The first estimate on the first quarter will be published April 29th.   Profits originating outside the …

READ MORE →