Financial Review

Not Enough to Rally

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-27-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks flounder for the week, the month, the year. Sell in May? 1Q GDP at 2.3%; consumers cut back, business picked up slack. Exxon earnings miss. Chevron beat. US Steel clobbered. AZ teacher strike Day 2. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-27-2018

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Carving Pumpkins

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-31-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Nasdaq record high close. Big 5 tech stocks rule. Valuations high. Consumer confidence up. Employment costs up. Housing formation down. Home prices up. Fed meets to do nothing. Waiting on tax text, which might be the scariest thing this week. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-31-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

See What Sticks

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-01-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Nasdaq record. EPS v GDP. Sell in May, maybe. Spending package means government will stay open. Winter storm hits short wheat traders hard. ISM mgf slips. Construction spending dips. Personal income down, debt up. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-01-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Puerto Rico Screwed

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-02-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSPuerto Rico defaults; TTIP leaks; Ultra, Midstates, and Sports Authority go BK; Sell in May and take a vacation. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-02-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

May Maybe

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-29-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSEnd of week, end of month,  no inflation, dollar soft, Exxon and Chevron get ugly, Woodstock for Capitalists and a dying breed. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-29-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Fixing the Unbroken

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-31-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 200 = 17,776 SPX – 18 = 2067 NAS – 46 = 4900 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.93% OIL – 1.15 = 47.53 GOLD – 2.30 = 1183.70 SILV – .06 = 16.73   The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed steady gains in January, up 0.9% from December. Compared to January 2014, prices were up 4.6%.  In Phoenix, resale home prices were unchanged from December to January, and posted a year-over-year gain of 2.6%.   The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index moved up to 101.3% in March from an upwardly revised 98.8 in February. The present situation index, a measure of current conditions, actually fell to 109.1 from 112.1. Yet the future expectations index increased to 96.0 from 90.   We’ve seen quite a bit of volatility in the markets lately. Today marks the 16 session in the month of March where the Dow Industrial Average has closed with a change in excess of 100 points. That is the second most of any month in history; following 20 triple digit moves in October 2008.   Sell in May and go away. You’ve probably heard this stock market advice. The idea is that you can divide the year into the best six months and the worst six months for the stock market; and we are now heading into the worst six months. Like most …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Financial Review for Wednesday, April 30, 2014 – Record Highs in First Gear

Record Highs in First Gear by Sinclair Noe DOW + 45 = 16580.84 (record close)SPX + 5 = 1883 NAS + 11 = 411410 YR YLD – .04 = 2.65%OIL – 1.59 = 99.69GOLD – 4.60 = 1292.30SILV – .29 = 19.25 Back on December 31st, we finished the old year with a record high close on the Dow Industrial Average at 16,576; since then the index has bobbed up  and down, briefly hitting an intraday high of  16,631 on April 4th, but on that day we finished in negative territory. Today, a record high close. The S&P 500 is closing in on the record high close of 1890, but not today. Now, when you hear the Dow is breaking records, you might think the economy is roaring, cruising along the highway in fifth gear. You would be wrong; the economy is stuck in first gear and the clutch is slipping. The Commerce Department reports the economy expanded at a mere 0.1% annual pace in the first three months of the year, one of the weakest rates of growth in the nearly 5-year-old recovery. A slowdown had been expected due to the harsh winter weather that froze business activity across a large swath of the country, but this report was worse than expected. The gross domestic product had been expanding at a 3.4% pace in the second half of last year. No worries, the weather has warmed and everything is returning to normal. Yeah, not exactly. There has been a …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Friday, April 11, 2014 – Corrupt or Incompetent, Take Your Pick

Corrupt or Incompetent, Take Your Pick by Sinclair Noe DOW – 143 = 16,026SPX – 17 = 1815NAS – 54 = 399910 YR YLD – .01 = 2.62%OIL – .07 = 103.33GOLD + .30 = 1319.40SILV – .07 = 20.06 The S&P 500 closed at its lowest level in two months. The gauge slipped 2.7% this week, the biggest loss since 2012. The Dow Industrial are down 2.4% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.3% today, capping its biggest two-day retreat since 2011; and down 3.1% for the week; closing at its lowest level in 4 months. The major US indices are all back in the red year to date. Biotechs fell for the 7th week in a row; the worst run since 1998; and now down 21% from recent highs. About 7.4 billion shares changed hands on US exchanges, 5.8% higher than the three-month average. We are entering a period that has historically been very poor for stocks. The idea is called “Sell in May” or the worst six months. According to the Ned Davis (NDR) database, had you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 every May 1st starting in 1950 and sold October 31 of the same year, your initial position would only be worth $10,026. Put another way, by investing only from May through October, a $10,000 stake invested in 1950 would have only made $26. The Labor Department reports the producer price index, gained 0.5% for March. Excluding the volatile categories of food and …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Monday, April 07, 2014 – I Don’t Know, They Don’t Know

I Don’t Know, They Don’t Know by Sinclair Noe DOW – 166 = 16,245SPX – 20 = 1845NAS – 47 = 407910 YR YLD – .03 = 2.69%OIL – .44 = 100.70GOLD – 5.40 = 1297.90SILV – .09 = 19.97 The biggest 3 day drop in the markets in about 2 months. All of the sudden we start hearing the Wall Street stock peddlers waxing enthusiastic about the prospects for a correction or a crash or whatever will scare you. Fear sells; with talk about a 1987-like stock market crash, geopolitical unrest in Ukraine and the risk of a debt crisis in China, investors are starting to get jittery. I don’t know, they don’t know. The big pullback so far has been in the Nasdaq, and especially biotech stocks. As always, you want an exit plan in place before you ever get into a trade; and if you don’t have an exit plan, get one now. You don’t make money by letting profits slip through your fingers. Earnings season gets underway this week. Expectations have been ratcheted down; at the start of the year, S&P 500 companies were projected to have grown earnings at 6.5%, now that estimate has slipped to 1.2%. We could see companies beat diminished expectations and start a fresh rally or miss expectations and the markets could get a bit ugly. The simple rule of thumb is that when the trailing P/E ratios hit 10, the S&P 500 is likely undervalued; when the P/E hits 20, …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Tuesday, May 14, 2013 –

Booms by Sinclair Noe DOW + 123 = 15,215SPX + 16 = 1650NAS + 23 = 346210 YR YLD + .03 = 1.95%OIL – .94 = 94.23GOLD – 5.00 = 1426.80SILV – .24 = 23.51 So, we have record highs. I went back to check some of the earlier in the year predictions. Last December, Goldman Sachs was predicting the S&P 500 would hit 1625; sounded good, even a little bold back then. Of course, in the past week, we’ve blown past those numbers. Many experts are calling for a correction here. Maybe, maybe not. If your memory is still sharp, you’ll recall a few weeks back I was talking about the “Sell in May” strategy; and if you’re really sharp, you’ll recall I said the way to play that strategy was to wait for a MACD sell signal for an exit, rather than just an arbitrary date on the calendar. We still haven’t had the exit signal. The market is in full melt-up mode, extending further above its longer-term moving averages every single day. The riskier stocks helped pushed the market higher over the past week or so. Technology names blasted higher. Materials broke out and helped lead the market to record heights. This shows that we are finally seeing investors beginning to believe in the market again. In a recent Gallup survey, only 52% of folks said that they or their spouse own any stocks (that includes mutual funds). That’s a jaw-dropping number if only for the fact …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Tuesday, April 30, 2013 – Relax, 20 Years Pass in the Click of a Mouse

Relax, 20 Years Pass in the Click of a Mouse by Sinclair Noe DOW + 21 = 14,839SPX + 3 = 1597NAS + 21 = 332810 YR YLD + .01 = 1.67%OIL – 1.46 = 93.04GOLD + .70 = 1478.20SILV – .24 = 24.45 The Dow Industrial Average did not hit a record high close. The old record close is 14,865. The S&P 500 did hit a new record high close. What next? Sell. Tomorrow is May 1st. Sell. Sell everything, or at least all stocks. We’ve been over this before. The theory is “Sell in May and Stay Away”. This is the best six months, worst six months theory of investing. It basically says you sell stocks in May and you buy back in November. The six months from May to November are bad; the six months from November through April are good. This works on broader stock averages and it can also apply to individual stocks, but the results on individual stocks are not as predictable. So if you have a S&P 500 Index Fund, or a Dow Industrials ETF, or something like that, sell. The S&P 500’s gains between November – April have trounced May – October returns for more than 60 years. Annualized gains from November – April have averaged 13.8%, while May – October gains have averaged only 1.4%. Numerous academic studies of the market going back many decades have confirmed that even though there is not a correction every year, an investor who simply …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Financial Review for Thursday, October 25, 2012 – Thank You Notes

Thank You Notes by Sinclair Noe DOW + 26 = 13,103SPX + 4 = 1412NAS + 4 = 298610 YR YLD + .05 = 1.83OIL – .43 = 88.30GOLD + 8.80 = 1711.30SILV + .38 = 32.11 PLAT + 3.00 = 1567.00 listen at www.MoneyRadio.com Chief executives of more than 80 big U.S. corporations, including Goldman Sachs, Cisco Systems and Boeing, joined forces to press Congress to reduce the federal deficit; they call it “The Campaign to Fix the Debt,” but it is a silly notion. We already have a plan to fix the debt. It’s called sequestration. It involves cutting spending and raising taxes, and it will fix the debt; it would also put the brakes on the economy. The group said any fiscal plan must be bipartisan, tackle all areas of the budget and include tax reform. It also urged the government to reform and improve the efficiency of healthcare programs like Medicare and Medicaid. The Wall Street leaders whose recklessness and illegal behavior caused this terrible recession are now lecturing the American people on the need for courage to deal with the nation’s finances and deficit crisis. The CEOs think the uncertainty is overwhelming and they think it stems from the fiscal cliff, not a lack of business. If they keep putting the cart before the horse, they might veer off the path. I almost missed this next story. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase received a major endorsement from a prominent congressman: Barney Frank. Congressman …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Thursday, October 25,2012 – Thank You Notes

http://www.moneyradio.com/Audio-Archive Thank You Notes by Sinclair Noe DOW + 26 = 13,103SPX + 4 = 1412NAS + 4 = 298610 YR YLD + .05 = 1.83OIL – .43 = 88.30GOLD + 8.80 = 1711.30SILV + .38 = 32.11 PLAT + 3.00 = 1567.00 Chief executives of more than 80 big U.S. corporations, including Goldman Sachs, Cisco Systems and Boeing, joined forces to press Congress to reduce the federal deficit; they call it “The Campaign to Fix the Debt,” but it is a silly notion. We already have a plan to fix the debt. It’s called sequestration. It involves cutting spending and raising taxes, and it will fix the debt; it would also put the brakes on the economy. The group said any fiscal plan must be bipartisan, tackle all areas of the budget and include tax reform. It also urged the government to reform and improve the efficiency of healthcare programs like Medicare and Medicaid. The Wall Street leaders whose recklessness and illegal behavior caused this terrible recession are now lecturing the American people on the need for courage to deal with the nation’s finances and deficit crisis. The CEOs think the uncertainty is overwhelming and they think it stems from the fiscal cliff, not a lack of business. If they keep putting the cart before the horse, they might veer off the path. I almost missed this next story. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase received a major endorsement from a prominent congressman: Barney Frank. Congressman Frank is …

READ MORE →