Financial Review

Denying Denial

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-26-2015 DOW – 23 = 17,623 SPX – 3 = 2071 NAS + 2 = 5034 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.06% OIL – .87 = 43.73 GOLD – 1.10 = 1163.90 SILV + .03 = 15.94   The U.S. economy has looked shaky of late, and an expected weak reading on third-quarter gross domestic product should confirm that. As a result, the Federal Reserve is again expected to keep interest rates near zero. The Fed decision, due Wednesday, and the GDP report, coming Thursday, will be the center of focus on this week’s economic calendar. Weak data almost certainly means the Fed will stick with its Zero Interest Rate Policy at this week’s meeting. The big question is whether the Fed will hint at a December move.   Also on the calendar this week is some sort of deal for the debt ceiling, which needs to be raised by November 3 in order to avoid default; and to meet the November 3 deadline, a deal needs to be reached this week. Talks have intensified between the White House and House Speaker John Boehner on a two-year budget agreement that would also increase the federal debt limit. Congressional leaders are said to be nearing an agreement, which would then need to win backing from most Democrats and at least several dozen Republicans for House passage. The deal …

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Financial Review

The Value of Everything

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 5 = 17,745 SPX + .06 = 2108 NAS + 17 = 5128 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.27% OIL – .27 = 48.35 GOLD – 8.40 = 1089.30 SILV – .08 = 14.83   Gross domestic product rose at a 2.3% annual rate from April to June, missing expectations for 2.6% growth. First quarter GDP was revised to show 0.6 percent growth after previous reports showed a 0.2 percent downturn. The latest reading on GDP was propelled by higher consumer spending on big-ticket items such as new cars and trucks and the strongest housing market in years. Personal spending accounted for two percent of the 2.3% headline increase.   Builders increased spending on new home construction at a 6.6% clip in the spring, especially for townhouses, condos and apartment units. That follows 10% gains in the prior two quarters. US exports, meanwhile, snapped back with a 5.3% increase after a 6% drop in the first quarter. Imports rose at a slower 3.5% pace. The improved trade figures also gave the economy a small boost.   Business investment was weak again. Outlays on equipment declined 4.1% and the value of inventories fell slightly to $110 billion from $112.8 billion. Spending on structures such as oil platforms fell 1.6%, largely because of the drop in oil prices. The story on the economy remains consistent: strong consumption, weak investment. …

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Tuesday, September 03, 2013 – Welcome to September

Welcome to September by Sinclair Noe DOW + 23 = 14,833SPX + 6 = 1639NAS + 22 = 361210 YR YLD + .10 = 2.85%OIL + .89 = 108.54GOLD + 15.70 = 1413.20SILV + .75 = 24.38 Well, we still haven’t started the war, yet. Congressional leaders from both sides of the aisle lined up in support of military intervention. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee opened a hearing and grilled Secretaries Kerry and Hagel. Tomorrow, Kerry and Hagel are scheduled to appear before the House Foreign Affairs Committee. The debate is shifting away from “Did Assad use chemical weapons?” to “What should be done about it?” Clarity of objectives seems to be a work in progress. Maybe all the talk will eventually consider the possible consequences of a military attack on Syria. Is it really possible to bomb a country and avoid deeper involvement? So far, the politicians are trying to work it out in a logical progression; if A, then B. That’s not always how it happens in war. Logic gets thrown out the window. At this time of crisis, it is worth remembering another time, 30 years ago in October, 1983 when US warships bombarded Lebanon, the country located next to Syria. Within weeks, the US Marine barracks in Beirut was blown up by a massive truck bomb that killed 241 American servicemen: 220 Marines, 18 sailors and three soldiers. The truck driver/suicide bomber was an Iranian national whose truck contained explosives that were the equivalent of 21,000 …

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Tuesday, July 09, 2013 – What’s It All About?

What’s It All About? by Sinclair Noe DOW + 75 = 15,300SPX + 11 = 1652NAS + 19 = 3504 10 YR YLD -.01 = 2.63%OIL + 1.38 = 104.52GOLD + 13.40 = 1251.70SILV + .18 = 19.36 It’s earnings reporting season. The stock market is feeling happy for the moment. Second quarter earnings are expected to be soft, but expectations have been ratcheted down, so there is potential for upside surprises. That’s the game that’s played on Wall Street to siphon a little bit of trading profit. Anywhere else, they’d call it price fixing. But this game of diminished expectations may have some basis in reality. The top line numbers more than likely suck. Analysts expect the 30 companies in the Dow Industrial Average to see revenue growth of just 0.7%; that number could be ratcheted down into negative territory; that follows a 0.6% drop in revenue in the first quarter. What do you call it when there are two consecutive quarters of economic contraction? Recession. That’s a bit of a non sequitur, but the logical conclusion is not too far removed from the premise. After all, we’re talking about 30 of the biggest, most powerful companies in the world and they are struggling to grow sales. They’re still reporting profits, but that comes from cost cutting, which tends to fall on the labor force. There are limits to cost cutting as a business strategy for growing profits. No worries. The S&P 500 closed above 1650 and looks poised …

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Friday, April 26, 2013 – The Fix is In

The Fix is In by Sinclair Noe DOW + 11= 14,712SPX – 2 = 1582NAS – 10 = 327910 YR YLD – .05 = 1.66%OIL – .86 = 92.78GOLD – 5.30 = 1463.90SILV – .36 = 24.14 The initial guesstimate of first quarter gross domestic product shows the economy growing at a 2.5% pace. Consumer spending increased by 3.2%, the strongest increase in consumer spending in 2 years. Defense spending fell at an annual rate of 11.5 percent in the first quarter, on the heels of a 22.1 percent decline in the last three months of 2012. This is the initial report on GDP and it is subject to revisions. The initial fourth quarter GDP number came in at a negative 0.1% and was revised up to 0.4%; the first quarter estimate of 2.5% is well below expectations, and it certainly isn’t showing enough strength to indicate a solid recovery. Personal disposable income, today’s report shows, actually fell by $140 billion in total from the fourth quarter. Reversion of the payroll tax to its normal rates at the beginning of 2013 will continue to drag on the disposable income of middle-class consumers throughout the year. Business investment in productive equipment and IT — a driver of productivity, innovation, and employment — slowed markedly to 3% growth in the first quarter, relative to nearly 12% in the prior quarter. Residential investment maintained strong growth, however, expanding 13% as housing markets in many areas of the country seem to be turning up. …

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Wednesday, April 24, 2013 – God Bless the Child

God Bless the Child by Sinclair Noe DOW – 43 – 14,676SPX +.01 = 1578NAS +0.32 = 326910 YR YLD un = 1.70%OIL + 2.43 = 91.61GOLD + 17.90 = 1432.50SILV + .22 = 23.26 Them that’s got shall get; them that’s not shall lose; so the Bible said, and it still is news. The Pew Research Center has analyzed the most recent date from the Census Bureau, and it turns out the rich got richer and the poor got poorer. During the first two years of the nation’s economic recovery, the mean net worth of households in the upper 7% of the wealth distribution rose by an estimated 28%, while the mean net worth of households in the lower 93% dropped by 4%. From the end of the recession in 2009 through 2011 (the last year for which Census Bureau wealth data are available), the 8 million households in the US with a net worth above $836,033 saw their aggregate wealth rise by an estimated $5.6 trillion, while the 111 million households with a net worth at or below that level saw their aggregate wealth decline by an estimated $0.6 trillion. Because of these differences, wealth inequality increased during the first two years of the recovery. The upper 7% of households saw their aggregate share of the nation’s overall household wealth pie rise to 63% in 2011, up from 56% in 2009. On an individual household basis, the mean wealth of households in this more affluent group was almost …

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Tuesday, April 09, 2013 – Poultice Does Not Cover the Wound

Poultice Does Not Cover the Wound by Sinclair Noe DOW + 59 = 14,673SPX + 5 = 1568NAS + 15 = 323710 YR YLD +.01 = 1.75%OIL +.60 = 93.96GOLD + 12.30 = 1586.00SILV + .68 = 28.08 The Dow Industrials hit a record high close. The S&P 500 was close to a record; not quite. Yesterday, there was a Statement Issued by the Europe Commission on Portugal. The Statement reads: “The European Commission welcomes that, following the decision of the Portuguese Constitutional Court on the 2013 state budget, the Portuguese Government has confirmed its commitment to the adjustment programme, including its fiscal targets and timeline. Any departure from the programme’s objectives, or their re-negotiation, would in fact neutralise the efforts already made and achieved by the Portuguese citizens.” Let me clear this up for you; the Portuguese courts ruled that austerity was a bad thing and suggested that the Portuguese governmetn stop with the austerity. By ruling that four government austerity measures, including planned cuts in public-sector pay and state pensions, were in breach of the constitution, the court has blown a 1.3-billion-euro hole in the 2013 budget. It has raised the possibility of another bail-out crisis in southern Europe while the dust is still settling on the rescue of Cyprus’s banks. Let’s look at Portugal:  Portugal is in a recessionary cycle. The economy will shrink by 2.3 per cent this year, more than twice as much as the previous government forecast (and the slowdown of exports to the …

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Tuesday, March 26, 2013 – Miles to Go

Miles to Go by Sinclair Noe DOW + 111 = 14,559SPX + 12 = 1563NAS + 17 = 3252 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.91OIL + 1.40 = 96.21GOLD – 5.90 = 1600.50SILV – .09 = 28.86 The Dow Industrial hit a record hit close today, taking out the March 14 closing high. The S&P 500 came within a couple of points of the high close; it is having a hard time breaking through the ceiling; you just have to content yourself with the idea that the index has more than doubled from the lows of March 2009. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines, fell 7.1 percent to 12.77. The gauge has tumbled 29 percent for the year. It is a reflection of complacency. We have many things to cover today. Home prices were up in January and the year over year improvement in prices was the fastest in 6 years. The S&P Case Shiller Index of existing home sales was up 0.1% in January, and the year over year gains were 8.1%. On a year-over-year basis, all 20 cities measured by the Case-Shiller index improved, led by a 23.2% surge in Phoenix, with New York bringing up the rear with a 0.6% advance. Sales of new U.S. homes fell 4.6% in February to mark the biggest drop in two years, though poor weather likely played a big role. Sales slowed to an annual rate of 411,000, …

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Thursday, March 21, 2013 – Math Class was Canceled

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend.  Math Class was Canceled by Sinclair Noe DOW – 90 = 14,421SPX – 12 = 1545NAS – 31 = 3222 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.93%OIL – 1.07 = 92.43GOLD + 8.10 = 1615.80SILV + .36 = 29.28 Some economic reports to touch on. The number of Americans filing for first time unemployment benefits rose by 2,000 last week to 336,000, which is still close to a 5-year low. Jobless claims, a rough gauge of layoffs, have fallen below 350,000 in five of the past six weeks, marking the first time that has happened since late 2007. The National Association of Realtors reports existing home sales rose 0.8% in February to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.98 million, which marks the highest level of sales since November 2009. While sales are still below bubble levels, we are seeing improvements; low rates are luring buyers and rising prices are luring both buyers and sellers back into the market. Inventories rose 9.6% in February, but still at relatively tight levels. Year over year, the national median sales price rose 11.6%. The trend …

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Monday, March 04, 2013 – The Strange Disconnect

I will be speaking at the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference April 5 & 6. Click here for more information or call 800-494-4149 or 480-820-5877. The Strange Disconnect by Sinclair Noe DOW + 38 = 14,127SPX + 7 = 1525NAS + 12 = 318210 YR YLD +.02 = 1.88%OIL – .62 = 90.06GOLD – 3.00 = 1574.80SILV – .06 = 28.62 It seemed like a long weekend, and then suddenly it was over. So, just to make sure we’re still on point, let’s start with a brief recap of last week. One week ago, there was widespread concern about the Italian elections, which ended in gridlock. Fifty-seven percent of the Italian vote went to parties that have vowed to tear up the European Union’s austerity script. It might send a signal of an end to economic reforms in Italy, that could undermine confidence in Italy, that could result in higher borrowing costs; which could result in a new bout of Euro-zone sovereign solvency fears, which could send markets lower until such fears are removed. In the US, Fed Chairman Bernanke testified on Capitol Hill that Fed stimulus would in fact continue into the foreseeable future, and the economy was doing much better, according to Bernanke. The housing and auto sectors and consumer sentiment data showed continuous improvements. The Fed will keep the free money spigot wide open and the banks will be flooded with cash, or some rough equivalent. If there was ever a good excuse to rally off a dip …

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Friday, March 1, 2013 – It Can’t Happen Here

Wealth Protection Conference April 5, 6 2013. Click here for info.  It Can’t Happen Here by Sinclair Noe DOW + 35 = 14,089SPX + 3 = 1518NAS + 9 = 316910 YR YLD – .03 = 1.85%OIL – 1.14 = 90.91GOLD – 2.70 = 1577.80SILV + .07 = 28.68 Yes, this is the end of the world as we know it. Elected government officials have ceded their power; they are being replaced by a puppet regime; technocrats that do not answer to voters. I am not making this up. The technocrats will have the authority to cut spending, or change contracts with labor unions, or merge or even eliminate whole departments within the government; they may sell off or privatize the assets of the government; and if that is not enough, they might declare bankruptcy. No, this is not democracy. Yes, this is happening right now; I am not making this up; it is happening in Detroit. I know what you’re saying: “Oh, it’s Detroit. That place is a mess.” Well, yes, but the people of Detroit are not so different from you and me. They just have massive municipal debt; they spend more than they take in; their economy has stagnated; their homes have been foreclosed; their jobs have been lost; or if they still have jobs, they can’t earn enough to stay out of debt. They are not so different. We are on the slippery slope. First they came for the Detroiters, or the Detroitians, or the Detroit-wah, …

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Thursday, February 28, 2013 – How Now, Dow Jones

I will be speaking at the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ, April 5 & 6. For information please click here. This is an excellent conference. Hope to see you there. How Now, Dow Jones by Sinclair Noe DOW – 20 = 14,054SPX – 1 = 1514 NAS – 2 = 3160 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.89%OIL – .91 = 91.85GOLD – 16.80 = 1580.50SILV – .47 = 28.61 Kate can now marry Herbert; or is it Charley? I don’t remember; the idea was part of a play from the late 60’s, called “How Now, Dow Jones” and the idea was that the girl had been engaged for about 4 years to a stock broker, and the guy was putting off marriage on the pretext of having to wait until the Dow Industrial hit a record high, which back then meant a move above 1,000. The Dow closed above 1,000 in November 1972, and then it floundered through the 70’s and didn’t close above 1,000 again until 1982. So, we didn’t hit the record high today. No milk and cookies. I don’t remember what happened to Kate. Records are made to be broken but its not easy. Even when the Federal Reserve is juicing the market, it isn’t easy. Records are may to be broken. It doesn’t happen when you expect. The Nasdaq is still some 38% below its all-time high of 5,132.50, which was hit on March 10, 2000. In inflation-adjusted terms, this market average is …

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Wednesday, February 27, 2013 – It’s Ben’s World

I will be speaking at the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ, April 5 & 6. For information please click here. This is an excellent conference. Hope to see you there. It’s Ben’s World by Sinclair Noe DOW + 175 = 14,075SPX + 19 = 1515NAS + 32 = 316210 YR YLD +.02 = 1.90%OIL + .22 = 92.85GOLD – 18.40 = 1597.30SILV – .45 = 29.08 Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke deliver his semi-annual testimony before the Senate; today he talked to the House of Representatives, repeating testimony in which he defended the Fed’s policy of buying bonds to keep interest rates low in order to promote growth and bring down the unemployment rate. Woohoo! Ben is going to continue with QE to infinity and beyond. Wall Street loves free money. The markets moved higher. That pretty much covers it. The stock market tumbled a few days ago. Bernanke promised more free money and the market moved higher yesterday. And then today, Bernanke reiterated that the free money spigot is wide open, and the market moved higher again. That pretty much covers it. So, maybe we can play some music. Start happy hour a little early today if that’s your thing. I’m just saying that you need to keep it all in perspective. If you have friends, call them up and thank them for being friends. If you don’t have friends, go make some. If you are doing something productive, keep doing it. If your not doing …

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Tuesday, February 26, 2013 – Send in the Clowns

I will be speaking at the Wealth Protection Conference 2013, April 5 & 6 in Tempe. It’s a great conference. Click here to find out more and make a reservation. Send in the Clowns by Sinclair Noe DOW + 115 = 13900SPX + 9 = 1496NAS + 13 = 312910 YR YLD -.02 = 1,88%OIL – .42 = 92.69GOLD + 21.10 = 1615.70SILV + .44 = 29.53 Twice a year the Fed Chairman visits Capitol Hill. He talks to senators and the next day he talks to the House of Representatives. Today, Bernanke told lawmakers that he had done a good job and he tried to take his bows. Bernanke said Fed policymakers are cognizant of potential risks from their extraordinary support for the economy, including the possibility that it might fuel unwanted inflation or stoke asset bubbles. But, he said the risks did not seem material at the moment, adding the central bank has all the tools it needs to retreat from its monetary support in a timely fashion. Bernanke said: “To this point, we do not see the potential costs of the increased risk-taking in some financial markets as outweighing the benefits of promoting a stronger economic recovery and more rapid job creation.” When asked pointedly by Republican Senator Bob Corker about whether the Fed’s easy monetary policy was contributing to competitive currency devaluations globally and laying the groundwork for inflation, Bernanke was unequivocal. He said: “My inflation record is the best of any Federal Reserve chairman in …

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Friday, February 22, 2013 – Taxes, Sequester, Inequality, Name That Stadium

Note: I will be speaking at the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference on April 5th and 6th. For information, click here Taxes, Sequester, Inequality, Name That Stadium by Sinclair Noe DOW + 119 = 14,000SPX + 13 = 1515NAS + 30 = 316110 YR YLD – .01 = 1.97%OIL + .52 = 93.36GOLD + 4.50 = 1582.50SILV + .08 = 28.86 The European Commission has released its forecast for this year for Euro-zone economic growth, or lack thereof. The economy is expected to shrink in back to back year for the first time, driving unemployment higher, and spending will likely be lower for governments, consumers, and companies. Gross domestic product in the 17-nation region will fall 0.3% this year, compared with a November prediction of 0.1% growth. Unemployment will climb to 12.2%, up from the previous estimate of 11.8%.  The commission’s weak outlook reflects government austerity measures and efforts by companies and consumers to reduce debt. Seven Euro-zone economies are expected to contract in 2013, including: Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, Slovenia, and the Netherlands. Germany is expected to show modest growth of 0.5%, revised down from earlier estimates. One of the things the Europeans are considering is a tax on financial trading; it will likely go into effect as soon as next year. The traders claim a tax would hurt economic growth and raise the cost of capital for companies, and they claim it would drive trading to other countries, leaving the country that adopted it with less revenue and …

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Thursday, February 21, 2013 – the Big Coincidence

Note: I will be a speaker at the upcoming 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ on April 4th and 5th. Click here for details and registration information. Hope to see you there. The Big Coincidence by Sinclair Noe DOW – 46 = 13,880SPX – 9 = 1502NAS – 32 = 3131 10 YR YLD + .04 = 1.98%OIL – 2.23 = 92.99GOLD + 12.10 = 1577.40SILV + .12 = 28.78 We had a bundle of economic reports to start the day. Let’s run through them. First, the CPI report, which measures inflation at the retail level, shows prices were unchanged in January for the second month. Consumer prices are up just 1.6% in the past 12 months. One striking subset of the CPI report showed energy prices dropping 1.7% in January on a seasonally adjusted basis. Of course we all know that gas prices were climbing almost every day through the month; most likely, we’ll see a significant bump in the February report. A couple of manufacturing reports showed weakness. The Philly Fed’s  gauge of regional manufacturing activity fell to negative 12.5 in February from negative 5.8 in January with declines in overall activity and new orders. And Markit, a financial information services company, said its gauge of manufacturing activity dropped to 55.2 in February from 55.8. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion but the purchasing managers index showed a slower expansion, with weaker new orders and employment. Initial jobless claims rose 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 362,000 in …

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Tuesday, February 19, 2013 – Never more

Nevermore  by Sinclair Noe DOW + 53 = 14,035SPX + 11 = 1530NAS + 21 = 321310 YR YLD +.02 = 2.03%OIL + .70 = 97.11GOLD – 5.20 = 1605.60SILV – .54 = 29.54 So, stocks have been moving higher, up for 7 weeks; the S&P 500 index is at a five year high. Every story I read talks about optimism in the markets. What that really means is that we’re almost back to where we were in October 2007. Five years of risk and heartburn and having money tied up, and we’re back where we were. WooHooo! There’s merger fever in the air. Last week we heard the announcements on USAirways and American Airlines, plus Berkshire Hathaway and 3 Brazilians buying an enormous quantity of ketchup. This week, the rumor du jour is Office Depot merging with Office Max. And when the M&A fever subsides, there is the stock buyback fever, the anti-dilution thrill that comes from watching corporate management buy high. Of the 391 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported fourth quarter earnings results, 70.1 percent have exceeded analysts’ expectations, compared with a 62 percent average since 1994 and 65 percent over the past four quarters. Fourth-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies have risen 5.6 percent. Of course, there is an ominous feel to this market rally, like a nasty black raven over the gate screeching out “Nevermore.” And this coincides with the impending sequester, which Congress will deal with, using all their energy and diligence, …

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Friday, 15 February, 2013 – February 15th – An Historic Date

February 15th – An Historic Date by Sinclair Noe DOW + 8 = 13,981SPX- 1 = 1519NAS – 6 = 319210 YR YLD +.01 = 2.01%OIL – 1.23 = 96.08GOLD – 24.30 = 1611.10SILV – .60 = 29.90 Today marks the 10th Anniversary of the largest single coordinated protest in history. Roughly ten to fifteen million people (estimates vary widely) assembled and marched in more than six hundred cities: as many as three million flooded the streets of Rome; more than a million massed in London and Barcelona; an estimated 200,000 rallied in San Francisco and New York. From Auckland to Vancouver to the streets of New York and Los Angeles—and everywhere in between—tens of thousands came out, joining their voices in one simple, global message: No to the Iraq War. And there it was. We failed. Slightly more than a month later, the U.S. was shocking and awing its way through Iraqi cities and Saddam Hussein’s defenses and bedding in—though it didn’t know it yet—for a near decade-long occupation. The protests, which by any measure were a world historic event, were brushed aside. The UN Security Council was bypassed. Congress rubber stamped the war. The media was little more than a puppet. The U.S. spent nearly a trillion dollars on a pre-emptive war that didn’t need to happen and a nation-building exercise that has achieved only fragile, uncertain gains. Far from a “Mission Accomplished,” the American adventure in Iraq has become a cautionary tale of hubris and poor planning. …

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Tuesday, February 12, 2013 – The Battles to Come

The Battles to Come by Sinclair Noe DOW + 47 = 14,018SPX + 2 = 1519NAS- 5 = 318610 YR YLD + .01 = 1.97%OIL + .48 = 97.51GOLD + 3.00 = 1652.30SILV + .17 = 31.22 The all-time high in the S&P 500 index is 1565. The all-time intraday high in the Dow Industrials is 14, 198.10, reached in October 2007. We are close. After years of acting like deer in the headlights, investors are now throwing cash at the stock markets. Meanwhile, insiders are selling. Google’s CEO is selling more than 40% of his stock. He didn’t sell hardly anything from 2008 through now. There is a thought that insiders are selling now and mom and pop investors are buying, and once we work through this exchange, the markets will tank. This theory is being called the grand rotation. Ahead of tonight’s State of the Union Address, the White House has followed custom by leaking tidbits from the speech. It is expected the president will talk about North Korea testing a nuclear bomb; this, for the third time, and bigger than ever. Apparently Mr. Obama will also announce that 34,000 out of 66,000 troops will come home from Afghanistan by this time next year, which sounds better than it is. That means the Pentagon is roughly on pace to hand over security to the Afghans by the end of 2014, as Mr. Obama has long promised. It also means there will still be more than 30,000 troops in …

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Friday, February 08, 2013 – The State of the Union is Contradictory

The State of the Union is Contradictory by Sinclair Noe DOW + 48 = 13,992SPX + 8 = 1517NAS + 28 = 319310 YR YLD un = 1.95%OIL -.06 = 95.77GOLD – 3.80 = 1668.20SILV – .03 = 31.53 The State of the Union is… Tuesday. Do we have a solid economic recovery underway? The evidence will leave you whipsawed. Everywhere you turn, it seems, there is an economic contradiction. Housing is up, but gross domestic product was sharply down in December, almost to recessionary territory. The economy has lost 3.2m jobs since 2007, but 5.2m have been created since 2009. Even so, the number of unemployed far outpaces the number of jobs. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities says: “In November 2012, 12 million workers were unemployed but there were only 3.7m job openings. That is about 10 unemployed workers for every three available positions – in other words, even if every available job were filled by an unemployed individual, about seven of every 10 unemployed workers would still be unemployed.” The jobless rate keeps dropping, but the ratio of employed-to-unemployed people is about the same as last year. The economy gained 181,000 jobs a month last year, but the percentage of people who have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks has stayed relatively steady. People are working more hours, but productivity is falling. And economic output has almost ground to a halt, growing by 0.1% in December. Households are becoming less indebted, which is a welcome …

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