Financial Review

Slipping into September

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-04-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:09 — 7.5MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Trade concerns weigh. Manufacturing sings. Avoiding a shutdown. Tax Reform 2.0 on hold. Emerging markets wobble. Amazon $1T. Nike does it. Kyl replaces McCain. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-04-2018

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Financial Review

Cold, Cold

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-30-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks slip again. Shutdown? Tariffs? Earnings? Fed? Real estate demand outstrips supply. Earnings season: CAT will raise prices because of tariffs but has plenty for buyback. Yemen turns into an oil problem for Saudis. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-30-2018

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Financial Review

Move Along

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 33 = 17,548 SPX + 4 = 2051 NAS + 12 = 4922 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.30% OIL – .07 = 52.71 GOLD + 1.30 = 1160.30 SILV + .27 = 15.49   The major stock indices finished well off the highs for the day but still in positive territory. The New York Stock Exchange was open for business today, following a 3.5 hour shutdown yesterday. While yesterday’s outage stopped trading at the New York Stock Exchange, shares listed on that exchange continued to trade on other venues such as the Nasdaq Stock Market and Bats Global Markets. NYSE officials blame the halt in trading on a software update that didn’t work out. And they say it was just coincidental that United Airlines had computer problems that grounded flights for 2 hours. And it just coincidental that the Wall Street Journal Website went down just before trading was halted. And it was just coincidental that the ZeroHedge website went down just before trading halted. And it was just coincidental 12 hours before the shutdown, the hacktivist group Anonymous sent a Tweet saying, “Wonder if tomorrow is going to be bad for Wall Street…. we can only hope.” And it was just coincidental that China’s stock market was going through its own meltdown, though much more fundamental in nature; and the Chinese were more than …

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Friday, November 08, 2013 – Jobs, Jobs, Jobs Friday

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs Friday by Sinclair Noe DOW + 167 = 15,761SPX + 23 = 1770NAS + 61 = 391910 YR YLD + .14 = 2.74%OIL + .13 = 94.33GOLD – 19.10 = 1289.50SILV – .17 = 21.60 Another record high close for the Dow. For the week, the Dow rose 0.9 percent, the S&P 500 was up 0.5 percent while the Nasdaq was down 0.1 percent. Today was all about jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 204,000 in October and the unemployment rate increased from 7.2% to 7.3%. The 204,000 new jobs was much better than the estimates of about 120,000. Further, the numbers from previous months were revised higher; September was revised from 148,000 new jobs to 163,000 new jobs, and August was revised from 193,000 jobs up to 238,000; for a net gain of 60,000 upwardly revised jobs. So, why did the unemployment rate move higher? Part of this may have to do with the government shutdown and there might be a reversal in the November numbers. The furloughed government workers, at least some, were likely counted as unemployed with regard to the unemployment rate, but for the total number, that 204,000 number, those furloughed workers were not counted as unemployed. The problem with the unemployment rate is that the rate can fall even when the labor market conditions get worse. There are two possible reasons why the unemployment rate drops; either more jobless people find work, or more …

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Tuesday, October 2, 2013 – Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs by Sinclair Noe DOW + 75 = 15,467SPX + 10 = 1754NAS + 9 = 392910 YR YLD – .10 = 2.51%OIL – 1.57 = 98.11GOLD + 24.60 – 1342.20SILV + .47 = 22.81 The Labor Department reported the economy added 148,000 net new jobs in September. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +104,000 to +89,000, and the change for August was revised from +169,000 to +193,000. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 9,000 more than previously reported. The unemployment rate declined in September to 7.2% from 7.3% in August. This is the lowest level for the unemployment rate since November 2008. The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged in September at 63.2%. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The participation rate looks at the people who are actually in the labor pool. As the Boomer generation retires, willingly or not, they get out of the labor pool, and this is why we’ve seen the unemployment rate decline, even though the economy isn’t really doing a great job of adding jobs. There are 4.146 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This was down from 4.290 million in August. This is generally trending down, but is still very high.  Long term unemployment remains one of the key labor problems in the US. Is the Affordable Care Act causing a surge in part-time employment? Apparently not. …

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Wednesday, October 16, 2013 – That Was Close

That Was Close by Sinclair Noe DOW + 205 = 15,373SPX + 23 = 1721NAS + 45 = 383910 YR YLD – .05 = 2.67%OIL + .87 = 102.08GOLD + 1.70 = 1283.70SILV + .12 = 21.52 Wait, wait. Stop the countdown. There will be no debt-pocalypse. Not tonight. The politicians have worked out a deal. Whew, that was close. Under the agreement, the government would be funded through Jan. 15, and the debt ceiling would be raised until Feb. 7. So, if you stocked up on canned goods and cigarettes, well, they’ll keep a few months and we can do this again to start the new year. The government will re-open tomorrow. The government debt will be paid as usual. Life goes on. Even as the shutdown of the United States government and the threat of a default appear to be coming to an end, the cost of Congress’s gridlock has already run well into the billions. Retail sales that weren’t made, canceled vacations to national parks and other destinations, import inspections, export financing, and oil and gas permitting stalled; and the total will continue to grow after the shutdown ends. A full accounting will take months but this will likely have some adverse effect on 4thquarter GDP. Plus, tack on higher interest payments on short term debt, which have tripled from just a few weeks ago.  The World Bank has estimated that a similar standoff in 2011 raised borrowing costs in poor countries by about 0.75 percentage point, …

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Monday, October 14, 2013 – Canned Goods and Cigarettes

Canned Goods and Cigarettes by Sinclair Noe DOW + 64 = 15,301SPX + 6 = 1710NAS + 23 = 381510 YR YLD + .01 = 2.69%OIL + .12 = 102.14GOLD + .10 = 1274.30SILV – .07 = 21.37 Earlier today President Obama warned that if the standoff is not resolved by Thursday’s deadline to raise the debt ceiling, “we stand a good chance of defaulting.” And then he postponed a scheduled meeting with congressional leaders. That’s the good news. No, seriously, that’s the good news; Senate leaders were closing in on a deal to raise the federal debt ceiling and end the 2 week old government shutdown, so the president stepped aside to let the legislators work a deal. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said on the floor that he was “very optimistic” about what he called the “constructive, good-faith negotiations” aimed at avoiding the nation’s first default on its debt. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said he expected that “we’re going to get a result that will be acceptable to both sides.” Of course, if they don’t reach a deal by tomorrow, you might want to stock up on canned goods and cigarettes; there’s a good chance cigarettes will be more valuable than gold in the debt-pocalypse. And the meltdown could start prior to the actual deadline of Thursday; folks will wait it out tomorrow, but before the close of the markets on Wednesday, if there is no deal, it could get ugly. So stock up on the canned …

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Tuesday, October 08, 2013 – Low Probability High Consequence

10082013 Script Low Probability High Consequence by Sinclair Noe DOW – 159 = 14,776SPX – 20 = 1655NAS – 75 = 369410 YR YLD un = 2.63%OIL + .53 = 103.56GOLD – 3.50 – 1319.90SILV – .06 = 22.39 The Dow Industrials are down for 11 of the past 14 sessions, posting a loss of nearly 900 points. It’s not exactly a crash; Wall Street is still expecting a resolution to the debt ceiling and the shutdown. The debt ceiling will likely be resolved with some short-term band-aid, but there is a chance that the idiots will mess it up and there will be a default. There is a low probability of default but a high consequence; that’s a nasty mix and the reason I don’t play Russian Roulette. Most financial markets are only slowly getting worried about the possibility of a debt default, but in one tiny corner of the bond market things are starting to look a little panicky. Today, investors dumped one-month Treasury bills due for payment after October 17, the date the Treasury Department has warned it will no longer have the cash to pay all of its obligations unless Congress raises its borrowing limit, known as the debt ceiling. Every day that passes after that date raises the risk the government will default on some of its debt. These short-term bills will probably be the first to go unpaid. Interest rates and bond prices move in opposite directions; so as prices dropped today, rates spiked, …

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Thursday, October 03, 2013 – Don’t Underestimate the Idiocy

Don’t Underestimate the Idiocy by Sinclair Noe DOW – 136 = 14,996SPX – 15 = 1678NAS – 40 = 377410 YR YLD – .02 = 2.61%OIL – 1.22 = 102.88GOLD + .40 = 1317.70SILV – .04 = 21.80 Well, we won’t be able to sift through the jobs report tomorrow, due to the government shutdown. There are lots of things that won’t happen tomorrow, but next week, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank will meet in Washington. Ahead of the meeting, Christing Lagarde, the IMF Director delivered an assessment of the global economy. It’s subdued. Lagarde says “In many of the advanced economies, however, we are finally seeing signs of hope. Growth is looking up, financial stability is returning, and fiscal accounts are looking healthier.” The impact of a slowdown on US Federal Reserve asset purchases had been expected to dominate this year’s annual meetings but the Fed’s decision to hold off on tapering has removed that focus. And attention will now turn to the spectacle of a government shutdown and impending debt ceiling default. Lagarde called the debt ceiling “mission critical”, because “the normalization of monetary policy affects so many markets and people across the globe, the US has a special responsibility: to implement it in an orderly way, linking it to the pace of recovery and employment; to communicate it clearly; and to conduct a dialogue with others.” Late yesterday, President Obama was interviewed by CNBC and he warned that investors should be worried, saying “This …

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Wednesday, October 02, 2013 – Genie Out of the Bottle

Genie Out of the Bottle by Sinclair Noe DOW – 58 = 15,133SPX – 1 = 1693NAS – 2 = 381510 YR YLD – .02 = 2.63%OIL + 1.76 = 103.80GOLD + 28.80 = 1317.30SILV + .57 = 21.83 So, the heads of the biggest banks, including Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs and Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan and Brian Moynihan of Bank of America, and a list of others (apparently Dick Fuld from Lehman Brothers couldn’t afford the bus fare); so all these big banksters went to the White House today to discuss the shutdown. Heaven help us all. The President is getting advice on the economy from the very people who crashed the economy a few years ago. And then later in the afternoon the president met with lawmakers, not to negotiate but just to meet with the people that created the shutdown. Can everybody, please, just step away from the crack pipe? Maybe the politicians should try meeting with people that didn’t cause the problems. The meeting with the banksters, set up by the Financial Services Forum, a Washington-based trade group representing CEOs of the largest Wall Street banks, was part of an effort by the administration to leverage the business community’s clout in breaking the stalemate. Administration officials said pressure from the business community was effective in past fiscal fights. In other words, the financial industry threatened to take away the campaign contributions if the politicians persist in driving the economy off a cliff. The impending debt …

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