Financial Review

Sliding Into the Close

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 12.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-03-20015   DOW + 23 = 16,374 SPX + 2 = 1951 NAS – 16 = 4733 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.17% OIL – .12 = 46.63 GOLD – 8.70 = 1126.00 SILV + .03 = 14.83   Wall Street started the session on a high note, but could not hold it. Stocks slipped into the close and the Nasdaq turned red for the day. The stakes couldn’t be higher for the tomorrow morning’s August employment report, even though the month has typically been cursed by disappointment. The consensus guesstimate calls for about 215,000 to 220,000 new jobs created in August, with the unemployment rate holding at 5.3%, but August is notorious for misses. From 2005 to 2014, forecasters have over-estimated the initial August payrolls print seven times, including in each of the past four years. What’s more, the Labor Department (excluding annual and benchmark revisions) has marked up its first estimate in subsequent months in eight of the past 10 years. Part of the puzzle of forecasting August payrolls is the difficulty in adjusting for annual changes in the school-year calendar. Financial-market turmoil, at least, probably did little to impact hiring decisions in August. The government surveys households and businesses in the week that contains the 12th of the month, so the data will reflect responses covering the Aug. 9-15 period; that was a few days before the market …

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Financial Review

To Be Fair

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:19 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 6 = 18,105 SPX – 1 = 2104 NAS – 3 = 5007 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.88% OIL + 12 = 56.51 GOLD – 3.70 = 1198.90 SILV – .04 – 16.37   Yesterday the ECB pledged to fulfill its €1 trillion-euro bond-buying program; today Eurozone government borrowing costs slid to new lows. Germany’s 10-year yield fell almost a basis point to 0.087% in early trade, while yields on all German government debt out to January 2024 were negative. Other notable levels include France’s 30-year yield, which fell below 1%, and the yield on two-year Portuguese bonds, which is on its way below zero.   The price of Greece’s three-year notes dropped the most since February and Greek corporate bonds also slumped. Credit-default swaps suggested there was a 79 percent chance of the country being unable to repay its debt in five years. Greece’s three-year yield is at a multiyear high, up 359 basis points at 27.7%. Expectations are low that Greece can reach a deal with its creditors at next week’s Eurogroup meeting. Standard & Poor’s has downgraded Greece’s credit rating to CCC+ with a negative outlook, citing a substantial risk of a default due to the country’s drawn out negotiations with its creditors. Greece has been pushed a step closer to default and potential exit from the euro after one of its main lenders, the International Monetary …

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Financial Review

Times Change

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 117 = 17,959 SPX – 10 = 2089 NAS + 9 = 4992 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.97% OIL – .81 = 43.85 GOLD + 4.10 = 1172.00 SILV+ .22 = 16.21   The Federal Reserve wrapped up a two-day FOMC meeting yesterday; and the stock market responded with a rally; the dollar dropped initially. After a day of consideration, stocks slipped and the dollar clawed back gains.  Oil prices rose yesterday and dropped again today. You could make the case that the Fed has maintained an overly accommodative monetary policy for too long, or you could argue that the economy will take a hit if the Fed hikes interest rates too soon. The Fed removed its pledge to be patient in tightening policy, while also cutting its forecast for the economy. Go figure.   Initial jobless claims edged up by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 291,000 in the period stretching from March 8 to March 14.  New claims have tracked below 300,000 for the second straight week after spiking to a 10-month high of 325,000 at the end of February in what now appears to have been weather-related quirk.   The Commerce Department said the current account gap, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments into and out of the country, increased to $113 billion from a $98 billion deficit in the …

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Financial Review

Proportional Response

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-18-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 421 = 17,778 SPX + 48 = 2061 NAS + 104 = 4748 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.20% OIL – 1.88 = 54.59 GOLD + 9.00 = 1198.90 SILV + .13 = 15.98 If you were waiting for confirmation, you got it. The major indices went through about 7 days of doom and gloom. Maybe this has something to do with the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement yesterday. The central bank said in its official statement Wednesday it would “be patient” in deciding when to start raising interest rates from near zero. But then it added that it sees “this guidance as consistent with its previous statement” pledging to keep rates very low for “considerable time.” When asked what “patient” meant, Chairwoman Yellen said the Fed would not begin hiking rates for “a couple” of meetings. Pressed further, she confirmed “a couple” means two. But I’m not sure whether it was hawkish or dovish; more likely it was just a continuation. Here’s my guess and it is only a guess because I don’t know and probably nobody knows. My guess is that a lot of money has come out of oil lately and now that money is moving back into stocks. It’s the buy on the dip mentality, with a little sector rotation on the side. Whatever it was, it was the best day for the …

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Financial Review

More Jobs

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-03-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 33 = 17912 SPX + 7 =2074 NAS + 18 = 4774 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.29% OIL + .49 = 67.37 GOLD + 11.60 = 1211.10 SILV – .04 = 16.52 Record high for the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500. About 2 weeks before the Federal Reserve FOMC meets to determine monetary policy they gather together reports from across the nation on how the economy is doing; the Fed then binds those reports in a Beige folder, or what we call the Beige Book. As the name would imply, the Beige Book is not always a page turner, but it can provide some useful information as well as an indicator of what the Fed policymakers are thinking, and then there is the occasional surprise nugget of information. The Beige Book was released today and it shows the US economy holding up well despite global slowing; economic activity continued to expand in October and November, with lower gasoline prices boosting consumer spending. Despite a sharp drop in crude oil prices, drilling activity in shale production districts remained steady; oil and gas exploration activity decreased in North Dakota and increased in Montana relative to a month earlier; production remained at record levels. Lower oil prices have some oil companies concerned and closely monitoring prices, which are close to many firms’ breakeven price. Employment gains were …

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