Financial Review

Record High Close

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-12-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Dow, S&P 500 ad Nasdaq hit record highs. JOLTS shows tight labor market. Median household income hits 17 year high, sort of. Home prices climb. Florida is powerless. Apple unveils X. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-12-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

No Reason Not To

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-11-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Stocks hit records. Irma not quite catastrophic. OJ, cotton tumble. Yes, talk about climate change. Reporters in floodwaters. Dollar bounces. $1,000 phones. Equifax – no excuse. China goes EV. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-11-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

The Bar is Set Low

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 28 = 18,047 SPX + 3 = 2100 NAS + 5 = 4899 10 YR YLD + .12 = 2.14% OIL + .27 = 53.05 Another record high close for the S&P 500 index and the Russell 2000 index. As of February 11, 356 S&P 500 companies have reported and 71.3% beat earnings expectations. Total revenues are up +1.5% with 55.6% beating top-line estimates. Earnings growth with little or no revenue growth means companies are cutting costs or repurchasing shares to boost earnings. The Health Care and Telecom Services sectors were the best performers on the quarter. The energy sector was badly beaten down. The 12-month forward P/E currently sits around 16, putting it well above the 10-year average of 14; a little pricey but not excessive. Guidance has been disappointing but the game is to set the bar very low and then stop over it.   Eurozone officials and the new government in Greece have been playing hardball. Greece is running out of money. A report from JPMorgan shows Greek banks were losing deposits at the rate of €2 billion a week. The Greek government has so far insisted that budget cuts and economic overhauls mandated by the current €240 billion bailout are hurting its economy and society and that the currency union’s finance ministers haven’t offered sufficient leeway on implementing those measures. Yesterday, Eurozone ministers gave the …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

It’s About to Get Hot

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 46 = 18,019 SPX + 8 = 2096 NAS + 36 = 4893 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.02% OIL + 1.43 = 52.46 GOLD + 6.20 = 1228.90 SILV + .48 = 17.42 The S&P 500 Index closed at an all-time high, taking out the previous record close from December 29. Whenever the S&P 500 hits a record high, we acknowledge it, but for some reason we don’t have a big celebration. When the Dow Industrials hit records we have the orchestra, the parade, milk and cookies; it’s a big ridiculous mess, but S&P 500 record high close; well done, attaboy, next.   Next would be the Russell 2000 index of small and mid-cap stocks hitting a record high close. Well done, next.   The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished above 18,000 for the first time this year. The Nasdaq Composite ended at its highest level since March 2000. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 2%. The Dow Industrial Average was up 1.1% on the week. For the second day, American Express led declines for the Dow, following news Costco was ending its exclusive business arrangement with AmEx. The Nasdaq Composite gained 3% over the past week, and is now within a few percentage points of record highs. The Russell 2000 gained 1.5% on the week.   In economic news, consumer sentiment slipped in …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Sprinting Up a Mountain

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-14-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 18 = 17634 SPX + 0.49 = 2039.82 NAS + 8 = 4688 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.32% OIL + 1.74 = 75.95 GOLD + 26.40 = 1189.30 SILV + .64 = 16.41 The recent rally in the S&P 500 has been really, really strong. Today marked the 41st record high close for the S&P. In mid-September, the index dropped, and that continued until October 16th. On October 17th we told you about a bullish reversal pattern, and since then the S&P 500 has gained about 160 points. The S&P 500 has traded above its 5 day moving average for 21 consecutive sessions; this is unusual; it means the rally has been extremely strong and nearly non-stop; there were a couple of days where the index paused, but never really went down. The past 21 days resulted in a 12% gain; that’s like a runner sprinting up a mountain. The market is now extremely overbought. Typically, when the market is overbought, you might anticipate a pullback. We haven’t seen it yet, but we can anticipate and wait for the market to show us. There are plenty of reasons to think the stock market will continue higher. First reason is that it is in an uptrend right now; a trend in place is more likely to continue than it is to reverse. Another reason is that there is a …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Net Neutrality

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-10-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 39 = 17,613 SPX + 6 = 2038 NAS + 19 = 4651 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.36% OIL – 1.43 = 77.22 GOLD – 26.90 = 1152.60 SILV – .22 = 15.71 Record highs for the Dow Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index, plus new records for the Dow Transportation Average. We enjoy milk and cookies. The S&P 500 has rebounded 9.4 percent from a six-month low on Oct. 15. We’re still a couple of weeks away from Thanksgiving but third quarter earnings season is wrapping up, and analysts are already looking to next year, anticipating earnings will rise another 7% or so to around $126. And while stock prices have been hitting highs, volatility has dropped; the VIX is back down to 12 or so, indicating a fair amount of complacency, even as stocks hit highs. Commodity prices have been scraping the bottom of the barrel, with oil and gold near multi-year lows; one exception is cattle prices. Live-cattle futures last week hit an all-time high on CME, and prices are unlikely to come down anytime soon. In addition to increasing demand for beef, the recent drought in Texas and Oklahoma dented cattle herds, which has forced farmer to undergo a lengthy cattle replacement process. Stock market analysts aren’t the only ones looking to next year. The World Economic Forum is out with its new …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

The Terror Threat Level is Flashing Magenta

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-29-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08292014 FINANCIAL REVIEW LISTEN HERE DOW + 18 = 17,089 SPX + 6 = 2003 (record) NAS + 22 = 4580 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.34% OIL + 1.30 = 95.85 GOLD – 2.00 = 1288.20 SILV – .02 = 19.56 The S&P 500 set another record high close, the 32nd of the year. The S&P 500 gained 3.8% for the month, representing the benchmark’s best August performance since 2000. The S&P 500 also achieved its largest monthly percentage jump since February, when it rose 4.3%. The Dow and S&P have posted gains for four weeks in a row. For the week, the S&P 500 tacked on nearly 0.8%. The Dow scored advances of 0.6% for the week and 3.2% for the month, while the Nasdaq climbed 0.9% for the week and 4.8% for August. Don’t forget that August saw rates on the 100 year Treasury note drop from 2.55% to 2.34%. And oil prices had dropped from 98.15 a barrel to 95.85. It’s always tricky to say “this time it’s different”, but it is. Remember, back in 2000? The Nasdaq was trading right about where it is now, but back then, people were quitting their day jobs to become day traders; the market was irrationally exuberant. Not so much anymore. People are skeptical; they don’t’ trust the market and they don’t trust the rally. And distrust is healthy, at least for …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Tax Weasels

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-25-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08252014 Tax Weasels by Sinclair Noe LISTEN HERE DOW + 75 = 17,076 SPX + 9 = 1997.92 (record) NAS + 18 = 4557 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.38% OIL – .27 = 93.38 GOLD – 4.60 = 1277.20 SILV – .05 = 19.45 The S&P 500 crossed above 2000 intraday, closing off the high for the day, but still closing in record territory. We recognize it but we don’t have a big celebration. It’s just a number, a nice big round number. For reference, the S&P 500 topped 1,000 back in February 1998. Economic data today includes: Sales of new single family homes dropped for a second month in June. New home sales slipped 2.4%, but data from the past 3 months was revised to show 33,000 more new homes were sold than previously reported. The median sales price increased 2.9% from a year ago. At July’s sales pace it would take 6.0 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, the highest since October 2011. Tomorrow, we’ll see the latest data on existing home sales from S&P/Case-Shiller. Separately, financial data firm Markit said its preliminary services Purchasing Managers Index dipped to 58.5 this month from 60.8 in July.A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Last Friday ECB President Mario Draghi delivered the luncheon speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium; Draghi said the ECB had done all it could for …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Friday, May 23, 2014 – Always Check Your Spreadsheets

Always Double Check Your Spreadsheets by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 63 = 16,606 SPX + 8 = 1900 NAS + 31 = 4185 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.54% OIL + .67 = 104.41 GOLD – .80 = 1293.90 SILV – .01 = 19.58   The S&P 500 Index closed at a record high of 1900.53. It was a record high close but not a record high considering intraday pricing. The S&P hit an intraday high of 1902 on May 13, however it closed on that day at 1897. Today, the intraday high was 1901, but I’ve always considered the close to be a more significant number than the intraday high. Since the start of the year we’ve been on a roller coaster ride in the markets, but as of today the Dow is up 0.2% year to date, the Nasdaq is up 0.2% for the year, and the S&P is up 2.8% since the start of the year.   If you are a regular, you might wonder why we aren’t celebrating a record high. The first answer is that 1900 is just a number with no special significance; the second answer is that we only celebrate when the Dow Industrial Average hits a record high, and the last record high close on the Dow was May 13 at 16,715. We don’t celebrate S&P records, and like so many things, the reasoning is entrenched in archaic traditional dogma.   An example would be Memorial Day, which started after …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Monday, February 24, 2014 – Wine and Neurosis

Wine and Neurosis by Sinclair Noe DOW + 103 = 16,207SPX + 11 = 1847NAS + 29 = 429210 YR YLD + .01 = 2.75%OIL + .64 = 102.84GOLD + 10.50 = 1337.60SILV + .11 = 22.07 The S&P 500 hit a new high today; topping out at 1858; surpassing the intraday high of 1850 set back January 15th, and finishing at 1847.61, just below the record high close of 1848.38, again from January 15. So, we couldn’t hold on to a record close, but it was tempting. The S&P was banging up against resistance, briefly floating above the ceiling and into new, rarified air. And we would all love to be on that rocket, if it really is going to soar. Patience, patience. Now, we know that fundamentals, the news of the day, only offers justification for movement, and we know that the fundamentals can also prove to be contrary indicators. Still, the best explanation I’ve heard today for the enthusiasm is the recent M&A activity has created something of a halo effect. There has been quite a bit of merger action. Consider: RF Micro Devices will merge with Triquint Semiconductor in an all stock deal announced this morning, last week was news of Men’s Warehouse upping its offer for Joseph A. Bank conditioned on Bank dropping its bid for Eddie Bauer, Actavis is buying Forest Laboratories, Comcast buying Time Warner Cable in a deal to create the world’s biggest consumer complaint, and Facebook buying WhatsApp. And suddenly everybody …

READ MORE →