Financial Review

Holy Cow

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-02-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Fed leaves rates unchanged; wait for December. S&P 500 down 7 straight. Facebook tops 1 billion daily. ADP says 147k jobs last month. Alibaba grows earnings. A new KFC every 5 hours. Wells Fargo again. Colorado River is drying up. I’ll watch the game on TV. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-02-2016

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Financial Review

Very, Very Quiet

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-23-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSS&P and Nasdaq hit intra-day highs but the markets are still too quiet. Eurozone and UK show strength. Online retail clicks. Home builders finally figure out what to build and it is selling. Uber’s world domination. Fast and electric. GE dredges up old dirt. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-23-2016

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Financial Review

2015 Financial Review

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-31-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-31-2015 DOW – 178 = 17,425 SPX – 19 = 2043 NAS – 58 = 5007 10 Y – .03 = 2.27% OIL + .45 = 37.05 GOLD + .40 = 1060.20 SILV – .03 = 13.81   This is the final day of the year, and so it is appropriate to review where the markets stand; generally, it was ugly. We’ll take a look at stocks, bonds, the dollar and commodities. It was not an easy year for investors. Nearly 70% of investors lost money this year, according to Openfolio, an app that allows people to track their investment performance and compare their portfolio with other users. Warren Buffett is seeing his worst year since 2008, with Berkshire Hathaway shares down more than 11% year to date. Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital sent a letter to investors in December that said 2015 may be the fund’s worst year since it was founded in 2004. 2008 was a terrible year in the stock market, but bonds were up 22%. But this year, not one major asset class had a good year.   If you went to sleep on December 31, 2014 and you just woke up today, you might think nothing happened in 2015. The S&P 500 index started the year at 2058, and closed at 2043, for a loss of 15 points or about 0.7%; with dividends …

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Financial Review

Times Change

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-30-2015   DOW + 235 = 16,284 SPX + 35 = 1920 NAS + 102 = 4620 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.06% OIL – .14 = 45.09 GOLD – 12.40 = 1116.30 SILV – .13 = 14.62   This is the last trading day of the third quarter. China’s main stock market posted its worst quarter since 2008 and its smaller Shenzhen index, posted its worst quarter in at least two decades. Markets in Singapore and Indonesia are set to post their worst quarters since the financial crisis. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index fell 19.1% from the beginning of the quarter. The Nikkei closed out its worst quarter since 2010 and the ASX its worst since 2011.   European stocks moved higher today, but not enough to recover from the worst quarter in 4 years. The Stoxx Europe 600 index is down about 9.5% for the quarter. Germany’s DAX index down 12% for the quarter. France’s CAC index posted a quarterly loss of 7.3%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 down 7.7%. The Eurozone is back in deflation. Consumer prices slipped 0.1% year-over-year in September.   The major U.S. averages had a rough third quarter. Concerns about spillover from slowdown in China and the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike sent markets into correction territory, or more than 10 percent below their 52-week highs, in late August. …

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Financial Review

Remain Buckled Up

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-24-2015 DOW – 588 = 15,871 SPX – 77 = 1893 NAS – 179 = 4526 10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.00% OIL – 2.30 = 38.06 GOLD – 5.50 = 1155.90 SILV – .56 = 14.89   The “Fasten Your Seatbelt” sign stayed on for the entire trip.   The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1089 points, or 6%, to 15,441 to start the session; that was the largest intraday drop in Dow history. The S&P 500 opened 100 points, or 4.9%, lower at 1,874. The Nasdaq Composite began the day down 360 points, or 7.6%, to 4,349. All three major US market indexes are now in correction territory, a 10% drop from a recent high. The latest round of selling comes on the heels of the worst week for the broad S&P 500 since 2011 that stripped more than $1 trillion in market value from US equities.   Before the market opened, Dow futures, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures triggered circuit breakers after falling at least 5%. The New York Stock Exchange operator NYSE Group invoked the rarely used “Rule 48,” which relaxes some trading rules in a bid to ensure a smooth opening to trading. The rule is instituted when trading before the start of the regular session is especially volatile. At the market open, a slew of single stocks and exchange-traded products triggered single-stock …

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Financial Review

Solid Guesses

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-29-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 121 = 17,751 SPX + 15 = 2108 NAS + 22 = 5111 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.28% OIL + .91 = 48.89 GOLD + 1.20 = 1097.70 SILV + .13 = 14.91   The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting wrapped up earlier today. They issued a statement but there was no press conference. The Fed did not change monetary policy; no surprise, nobody expected a change from this meeting. The next FOMC meeting is in September and we might see changes then, or maybe December. There really weren’t many clues in the statement. There were a few subtle changes in wording of the statement; specifically on jobs, the Fed said: “The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year.” “Solid job gains” is a fairly strong phrase for the Fed. No indication of slack in the labor market.   The actual decision to raise rates will come when the Fed sees “some” further improvement in the labor market. The word “some” was new. What does “some” mean? You can give it whatever meaning you want but I think it means the labor market is headed in the right direction and as long as it stays on the tracks and continues to …

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Financial Review

Spend Your Time Wisely

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 23 = 17,619 SPX + 5 = 2063 NAS + 28 = 4986 10 YR YLD un = 2.33% OIL + 1.14 = 59.47 GOLD – 7.50 = 1173.60 SILV – .09 = 15.77   Today marks the end of the second quarter; we are halfway through the year. The stock market has been trading in an extremely tight range. After a weak January and a rebound in February, the major indices have moved sideways for 4 months. The Dow Industrials are down 204 points for the first half; the Nasdaq Composite is up 250 points for the first six months; the S&P 500 gained 5 points year to date. The S&P 500 is in the tightest trading range for the first half of a year in more than 2 decades. At some point it will break up or break down; as it is 2015 marks the worst first half of a year for the S&P 500 since 2010.   For the month of June, the Dow fell 2.2 percent, the S&P 500 fell 2.1 percent and the Nasdaq fell 1.6 percent. For the second quarter, the Dow fell 0.9 percent, the S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent. For the Dow and the S&P, that snaps a string of 9 consecutive quarters of gains. The Nasdaq rose 1.8 percent in its tenth straight quarterly advance. During the quarter, the Nasdaq hit its first records since …

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Financial Review

Live Long and Prosper

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 81 = 18,132 SPX – 6 = 2104 NAS – 24 = 4963 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.00% OIL + 1.03 = 49.20 GOLD + 4.50 = 1214.70 SILV + .04 = 16.67   We are wrapping up the first 2 months of trading. January was a down month for stocks, but February turned positive, with record high closes posted for the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. The Nasdaq went almost entirely green for the month, closing in on 5000, and actually setting a new monthly closing high, taking out the March 2000 monthly close of 4572.   For the month, the Dow Industrial Average gained 5.6%, the S&P 500 gained 5.5% and the Nasdaq added 7.1%, and the Russell 2000 added 5.8%. Year to date, , Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.7% YTD, S&P 500 +2.2% YTD, Nasdaq Composite +4.8% YTD,  and the Russell 2000 +2.4% YTD,   Junk bonds are poised to deliver gains of 2.3% for February, the best monthly result since 2013, while investment-grade debt has registered losses. Investors are also returning to the equity markets, with the MSCI All-Country World Index touching a record Thursday after two losing months. Markets in Germany, the United Kingdom and Sweden hit all-time highs. Japan, the poster child of deflation, saw its stock index reach its highest point in 15 years. This …

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Financial Review

Risk On

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-20-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 154 = 18,140 SPX + 12 = 2110 NAS + 31 = 4955 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.13% OIL – .82 = 50.34   Eurozone finance ministers are meeting in Brussels today for the latest round of emergency talks aimed at breaking the deadlock with Greece. Yesterday, Germany rejected a request by Athens to extend a loan program, calling the Greek proposal a Trojan horse. Now it looks like there will be an extension of the bailout loan agreement, probably for four months; the current deal was scheduled to expire on February 28th.   Euro zone officials said the accord required Greece to submit by Monday a letter to the Eurogroup listing all the policy measures it planned to take during the remainder of the bailout period, to ensure they complied with conditions. So, they haven’t worked out all the details or even come close to resolving the problems; they didn’t have to; they just needed to avoid making a big, irreversible mess of everything. So, they have hit the pause button. It might be the smartest thing they could have done.   Greece has a new government, barely one month on the job. It is not reasonable to expect the new government to have fully formulated all the details of a bailout and recovery plan. They might not come up with a decent plan after 3 or …

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Financial Review

Admit It

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-08-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 323 = 17,907 SPX + 36 = 2062 NAS + 85 = 4736 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.01% OIL + .08 = 48.73 GOLD – 2.20 = 1209.90 SILV – .16 = 16.48 Since 1928, the Standard & Poor’s 500 has started the year with 3 straight losing days eight times. And only once has the S&P 500 finished one of those years in the red. During the 8 years since 1928 that the S&P started with 3-day losing streaks, the index has returned 8.3% on average. For all years since 1928, the S&P has returned 7.5% on average. Maybe it’s a good thing to start the year with 3 straight losing sessions. Then there is the idea that the first 5 trading sessions of the year can be used to extrapolate the direction of the market for the year. If that is the case, then we might expect some rough sledding for the markets in the early part of the year followed by a strong second half of the year. This is a variation on the idea of the January barometer, which says (basically) that if January is positive, the year will be positive, and vice versa; that didn’t work last year, but it is accurate about 89% of the time. Of course, that’s just probabilities and tendencies. We don’t know where the market …

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Financial Review

Buckle Your Seat Belts

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-05-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:19 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 331 = 17,501 SPX – 37 = 2020 NAS – 74 = 4652 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.04% OIL – 2.82 = 49.87 GOLD + 15.40 = 1206.20 SILV + .40 = 16.29 If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall. That is the old saying and most people think the Santa Claus rally covers the month of December, or maybe the week leading to Christmas; actually, the rally time frame covers the last 5 trading days of the year and the first 2 trading days of the New Year, which would include today. And today the markets were down; the worst day in 3 months. The Santa Claus rally is really an indicator. In 1999-2000 rally timeframe suffered a horrendous 4% loss. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, on January 14, 2000, the Dow started its 33-month 37.8% slide to the October 2002 midterm election year bottom. NASDAQ cracked eight weeks later falling 37.3% in 10 weeks, eventually dropping 78% by October 2002. Saddam Hussein cancelled Christmas by invading Kuwait in 1990. Energy prices and Middle East terror woes may have grounded Santa in 2004. In 2007 the third worst reading since 1950 was recorded as subprime mortgages and their derivatives lead to a full-blown financial crisis and the second worst bear market in history. For the past 4 trading sessions, …

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Financial Review

Some Perspective on the Markets

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-16-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 111 = 17,068 SPX – 16 = 1972 NAS – 57 = 4547 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.07% OIL – .58 = 55.33 GOLD + 1.50 = 1196.00 SILV – .47 = 15.82 Allow me to provide some perspective. On December 5th the S&P 500 index hit an intraday high of 2079 and a closing high of 2075. That was 7 trading session in the past, which may be a long time if you are trading on the minute bars, but in the grander scheme of things it was just a few days ago. The downturn has been fast and sharp, as downturns are want to be. This downturn has lopped about 90 points off the S&P, or about a 4.3%; which does not qualify as a correction and certainly not a crash, but it does catch your attention.

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Financial Review

At Least it Wasn’t a 100 Point Drop

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-15-2014_A.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW -99.99 = 17,180 SPX – 12 = 1989 NAS – 48 = 4605 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.11% OIL – 2.53 = 55.28 GOLD – 28.30 = 1194.50 SILV – .85 = 16.29 The S&P 500 index traded below its 50 day moving average for the first time since the end of October. At its session low, the S&P 500 was down about 5 percent from its record intraday high hit earlier this month but up more than 8 percent from a low hit in October. Oil continues to be a drag on the stock market, and West Texas Intermediate hit a 5 ½ year low; now down right at 50% from the highs of June. OPEC’s Secretary General reiterated the oil producing organization will not cut production despite the current low prices and glut of supply coming out of the US and elsewhere. That’s leaving supply plentiful and prices low even as demand has been waning. We have seen the lower prices at the pump and that basically means everybody gets a break, a few extra dollars in your pocket. That’s a good thing. So, why is the stock market reacting badly to lower oil prices? Quite simply there are a lot of companies involved in the energy sector, and that is where we get the drag. Also, the decline in oil prices alongside other …

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Financial Review

Forget Complacency

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-13-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 223 = 16,321 SPX – 31 = 1874 NAS – 62 = 4213 10 YR YLD closed 2.28% OIL – .69 = 85.05 GOLD + 14.10 = 1238.10 SILV + .10 = 17.60 The major indices were up and then down; small moves earlier in the session; then, in the final hour stocks slipped and kept falling. The S&P 500 has fallen 6.8 percent from its Sept. 18 record, making this the worst pullback in two-and-a-half years. The Russell 2000 sank 4.7 percent last week. The small-cap index entered a correction after sliding more than 10 percent from an all-time high in March. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 5.5 percent from its record last month, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has slumped 8.3 percent from a 14-year high reached in September. The Volatility Index, or VIX, rose 13 percent today to 24, the highest level since June 2012. Forget complacency. The final hour collapse coincided with a report that an Emirates Airline plane in Boston was surrounded by medical crews and they removed five passengers over concerns about Ebola. But there is more to today’s trading than an Ebola scare. Oil prices continued to slide. Saudi Arabia is saying they are comfortable with oil prices in the sub-$90 range. The Saudis don’t necessarily want prices to slide further, but they are unwilling to shoulder production cuts unilaterally and …

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Financial Review

Be Careful Out There

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1_2-08-22-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 20:28 — 9.4MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08222014 LISTEN HERE DOW – 38 = 17,001 SPX – 3 = 1988 NAS + 6 = 4538 10 YR YLD un = 2.40% OIL – .46 = 93.50 GOLD + 4.30 = 1281.60 SILV un = 19.51 All three major indices posted gains for the week, with the Dow up 2%, the S&P up 1.7% and the Nasdaq up 1.6%. It was the strongest week of gains for both the Dow and the S&P since April, and the third straight week of gains for all three indices. There is a lot to cover before we can wrap up the week. First we go to Jackson Hole Wyoming, where the Fed has been having a friendly get together of economists. Janet Yellen kicked off the event with a speech this morning. She said what you might expect: “There is no simple recipe for appropriate policy,” and she called for a “pragmatic” approach that gives officials room to evaluate data as it arrives without committing to a preset policy path. And she backed up her comments with a new tool, the Labor Market Conditions Index, which measures 19 labor market indicators, and it isn’t new data, just combining it all together, but it showed she is monitoring the data. Yellen referenced the possibility that labor markets may be a bit tighter than they seem and that the Fed may consider having to raise interest rates …

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Financial Review

Rarified Air

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-21-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08212014 DOW + 60 = 17,039 SPX + 5 = 1992 NAS + 5 = 4532 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.40% OIL + .45 = 93.90 GOLD – 15.10 = 1277.30 SILV – .04 = 19.52 The S&P 500 broke two records during today’s session, climbing past its previous intraday all-time high of 1,991.39 and ending above its previous record close of 1,987.98. Both had been set on July 24. Family Dollar has rejected a $9 billion dollar buyout offer from Dollar General, opting instead for a smaller $8.5 billion dollar offer from Dollar Tree. The thinking is that a combination of the largest dollar store – Dollar General with the #2 Family Dollar, would be unlikely to win antitrust approval. Once upon a time, Sears was the largest retailer in the nation. Today, Sears Holdings announce it lost $975 million in the first half of the year; $573 million in the second quarter. This was the 9th consecutive quarter of losses, and the past quarter also marked the heaviest losses. Quarterly revenue dropped about 10%. The plan now is to close underperforming stores, or, in a classic example of corporate-speak “rationalizing our physical footprint.” The company successfully spun off Lands End earlier this year, to the benefit of shareholders. But its Sears Canada and Sears Automotive stores have been on the block for some time, indicating either a lack of interest …

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Financial Review

Monday, June 09, 2014 – Record Highs and a Few Crumbs

Record Highs and a Few Crumbs by Sinclair Noe DOW + 18 = 16,943 SPX + 1 = 1951 NAS + 14 = 4336 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.61% OIL + 1.73 = 104.39 GOLD – .30 = 1253.00 SILV + .05 = 19.16   The major indices are now up for 4 consecutive sessions. The Dow Industrials hit a record high close for the 10th time this year. The S&P is now up 14 of the last 17 trading sessions. The last time the Dow experienced a 10% correction was back in October 2011; since then, the Dow has gained almost 60% over 32 months without a 10% correction. Typically, you can expect a correction about every 12 months on average. The longest period without at least a 10% pullback was an 82 month run from 1990-1997. The S&P 500 hit a record high close for the 19th time this year. The S&P bull market is now at 62 months and counting, the best run since 1994 to 2000.   The CBOE Volatility Index moved a little higher today to 11.34. On Friday, the VIX hit a low of 10.73, the lowest level since January 2007. The VIX can go low and stay low for an extended period of time. In 2007, after hitting a low, the VIX steadily rose for the remainder of the year but stock prices didn’t peak until the end of 2007. The VIX measures options trades, but does it really mean investors …

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Uncategorized

Friday, November 22, 2013 – Big Round Numbers

Big Round Numbers by Sinclair Noe DOW + 54 = 16,064SPX + 8 = 1804NAS + 22 = 399110 YR YLD – .04 = 7.74%OIL – .60 = 94.84GOLD + 1.30 = 1244.70SILV – .16 = 19.93 Record highs for the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500; we also have Dow Transports confirming the movement of the industrials, and small caps, as represented by the Russell 2000 are looking strong, pricey but strong. This was the 41st record high close for the Dow Industrials this year. The S&P 500 is above 1800 and that round number now becomes support. The 1800 level is 17% above the record highs from the Spring of 2000. So, if you just followed the buy and hold, you made 17% over 13 ½ years; which is lousy; and even worse if you dig into the numbers. Adjusted for inflation, the 1800 level is 14% lower than the highs of 2000. Then you should also consider the S&P 500 is a capitalization weighted index, meaning the bigger companies have a bigger impact on the index. Back in 2000 there were 25 companies that accounted for 45% of the value of the 500 stock index; so, really back then it was more like a 25 stock index, and a 475 stock index. And really, the S&P is a dynamic index; meaning, the companies change. Back in the day, the high flyers were Lucent, MCI Worldcom, AIG, Sun Micro, Dell. This year, we’re seeing about 450 of the …

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Uncategorized

Thursday, October 17, 2013 – No Winners, No Free Lunch

No Winners, No Free Lunch by Sinclair Noe DOW – 2 = 15,371SPX + 11 = 1733NAS + 23 = 386310 YR YLD – .08 = 2.58%OIL – 1.59 = 100.70GOLD + 37.40 = 1321.10SILV + .47 = 21.99 The S&P 500 closed at a record high. We don’t celebrate a record high on the S&P. When the Dow hits a record high we have milk and cookies. No particular reason, we just don’t celebrate. “There are no winners here,” that was the declaration from President Obama this morning. He then cited the damage done: families going without paychecks, home buyers and small businesses unable to get loans, consumers cutting back on spending, businesses pushing back hiring plans, and increased borrowing costs which add to the deficit. Washington’s budget battle could result in a $24 billion hit to the US economy. That estimate comes courtesy of ratings firm Standard & Poor’s; they say the 16-day government shutdown and the wrangling over the debt limit shaved at least 0.6%, maybe a full point, off fourth quarter GDP growth. They had been estimating 3% annualized growth in the fourth quarter; now they peg it at 2%. The $24 billion loss is substantial, especially for a self inflicted wound. But wait, there’s more. Macroeconomic Advisers says the whole fiasco likely cost 900,000 jobs and possibly more in the months ahead. And one of the little noticed side stories is that the fiscal cliff inspired sequestration cuts, inspired by the debt ceiling debates of …

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Uncategorized

Tuesday, July 23, 2013 – Woman Gives Birth to a Baby

Woman Gives Birth to a Baby by Sinclair Noe DOW + 22 = 15,567SPX – 3 = 1692NAS – 21 = 3579 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.51%OIL + .09 = 107.00 GOLD + 12.50 = 1348.70SILV – .05 = 20.59 The Dow Industrial Average hit a new record high close. The S&P 500 was down slightly after four straight gains, including a record high yesterday. It’s still earnings reporting season, and the big report today came after the close of trade. Apple reported better than expected sales and profits. Generally, we’re seeing revenues are coming in pretty lackluster and profits seem to be doing a little better than gains in sales. In the first quarter of 2013, we saw an interesting and unexpected development. While the corporate earnings of S&P 500 companies were better than expected, their revenues weren’t nearly as impressive.  Just 46% of S&P 500 companies reported revenues above estimates. And the second-quarter corporate earnings might be similar, if not worse. Keep in mind that before second-quarter earnings season began, we had 87 S&P 500 companies issue negative earnings guidance. The information technology and consumer discretionary sectors of the S&P 500 had the largest number of companies issuing negative guidance about their corporate earnings relative to their five-year average. Many stock advisors are staying optimistic and not taking into consideration the reliability of corporate earnings. Consider the Investors Intelligence Advisor Sentiment index. It has been increasing for three consecutive periods and is closing in on highs …

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