Financial Review

Can’t Confirm

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-27-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:59 — 7.4MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS— Waiting on G20. Meanwhile, the budget marches into a wall. S&P/Case-Shiller shows home prices flattening. Consumer confidence slips. Clarida speaks; tomorrow Powell speaks. Administration threatens GM. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-27-2018

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Financial Review

No Sense in Wasting Our Time

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-23-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-23-2016 DOW – 188 = 16,431 SPX – 24 = 1921 NAS – 67 = 4503 10 Y – .02 = 1.75 OIL – 2.09 = 31.30 GOLD + 17.10 = 1226.40   The G20 is meeting this weekend in Shanghai. The US will call on G20 countries later to use fiscal policy in order to boost global demand.  American officials will also urge all members to refrain from manipulating exchange rates for competitive purposes, in line with existing G20 commitments.   The world’s oil giants were meeting today. At a conference in Houston, Saudi oil minister Ali Al-Naimi, considered the world’s most powerful energy policymaker, said production cuts will not happen. Last week, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela proposed a freeze that would cap production at January levels. But Naimi said: “Freeze is the beginning of a process, and that means if we can get all the major producers to agree not to add additional balance, then this high inventory we have now will probably decline in due time. It’s going to take time. It is not like cutting production. That is not going to happen because not many countries are going to deliver even if they say they will cut production, they will not deliver. So there is no sense in wasting our time seeking production cuts.” Global production is projected to be 95 million barrels a day …

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Financial Review

Commodity Crush

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-29-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-29-2015 DOW + 192 = 17,720 SPX + 21 = 2078 NAS + 66 = 5107 10 Y + .08 = 2.31% OIL + 1.06 = 37.87 GOLD + .50 = 1070.00   The Commerce Department reports the trade deficit grew to $60.5 billion in November – a three-month high – as exports declined more than imports. Exports of goods shrank 1.9% to $121 billion, the second straight monthly decline. Imports dropped a slim 0.2% to $181.5 billion in November. Trade has been a drag on growth in five of the last seven quarters, as the strong dollar and weak global economies have limited exports.   Home values in 20 U.S. cities rose at a faster pace in the year ended October as lean inventories of available properties combined with steadily improving demand. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values climbed 5.5 percent from October 2014 after rising 5.4 percent in the year ended September. A limited supply of properties for sale has helped prop up home values. Prices in Phoenix were up 0.5% from September to October and up 5.7% over the past 12 months ending in October. At the peak in 2006, prices in Phoenix were up 127% above the January 2000 level. Then prices in Phoenix fell slightly below the January 2000 level, and are now up 55% above January 2000 (55% nominal gain in almost …

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Financial Review

A Short Week

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 190 = 18,041 SPX – 21 = 2104 NAS – 56 = 5032 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.14% OIL – 1.37 = 58.35 GOLD – 18.10 = 1188.80 SILV – .35 = 16.82   The S&P/Case-Shiller Home price index shows prices for existing homes rose in March. Both the 10- and 20-City Composites increased significantly, reporting 0.8% and 0.9% month-over-month increases, respectively. Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites saw year-over-year increases in March. The 10-City Composite gained 4.7% year-over-year, while the 20-City Composite gained 5.0% year-over-year.  Phoenix saw prices increase 0.6% in March,

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Financial Review

Fixing the Unbroken

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-31-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 200 = 17,776 SPX – 18 = 2067 NAS – 46 = 4900 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.93% OIL – 1.15 = 47.53 GOLD – 2.30 = 1183.70 SILV – .06 = 16.73   The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed steady gains in January, up 0.9% from December. Compared to January 2014, prices were up 4.6%.  In Phoenix, resale home prices were unchanged from December to January, and posted a year-over-year gain of 2.6%.   The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index moved up to 101.3% in March from an upwardly revised 98.8 in February. The present situation index, a measure of current conditions, actually fell to 109.1 from 112.1. Yet the future expectations index increased to 96.0 from 90.   We’ve seen quite a bit of volatility in the markets lately. Today marks the 16 session in the month of March where the Dow Industrial Average has closed with a change in excess of 100 points. That is the second most of any month in history; following 20 triple digit moves in October 2008.   Sell in May and go away. You’ve probably heard this stock market advice. The idea is that you can divide the year into the best six months and the worst six months for the stock market; and we are now heading into the worst six months. Like most …

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Financial Review

Gulliver’s Travels

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 92 = 18,209 SPX + 5 = 2115 NAS + 7 = 4968 10 YR YLD – .07 = 1.99% OIL – .29 = 49.16 GOLD – .50 = 1202.30 SILV – .01 = 16.41   The Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 hit record high closes. The Nasdaq rose for the tenth straight session, its longest streak since July 2009. The Russell 2000 Index of small cap stocks closed at a record 1233.   Fed Chair Janet Yellen testified today before the Senate banking committee in her semi-annual report on monetary policy. Yellen said the Fed is preparing to consider interest rate hikes “on a meeting-by-meeting basis.” Yellen described how the Fed’s rate-setting policy committee will likely proceed in coming months: first by removing the word “patient” in describing its approach to rate hikes, then entering a phase in which rate hikes are possible at any meeting. That approach could open the door to an interest rate increase as early as June, but short-term rate futures contracts showed traders had shifted their expectations of an initial rate hike from September to October. And the yield on the ten year Treasury note slipped down below 2%. So, the markets players are placing their bets.   Yellen said she felt labor markets and other key economic indicators “have been increasing at a solid rate.” However, she said she still feels the …

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Uncategorized

Tuesday, November 26, 2013 – The Best Question

The Best Question by Sinclair Noe DOW + 0.26 = 16,072SPX + 0.27 = 1802NAS + 23 = 401710 YR YLD – .02 = 2.71%OIL – .60 = 93.49GOLD – 9.60 = 1243.00SILV – .39 = 19.92 Today we celebrate the Nasdaq. Yes, the Dow is at record highs, again, but the milk and cookies thing is getting old, kind of sickly sweet. Some might argue that you can never have too many cookies; that any day with milk and cookies is a good day. It’s hard to dispute this argument. Still, it bears notice that the Nasdaq has closed above 4,000 for the first time in 13 years. The Nasdaq is up about 33% year to date, and counting. So, today we celebrate with chips and salsa. If you’re thinking the Nasdaq has had quite a run and it’s starting to feel like 1999, you could be forgiven, but when you put it in perspective it’s not quite the same. P/E ratios are around 19, compared with 29 just before the millennium. Price to book is now 2.6 compared to 5.1 back then. Basically, back in 1999, the Nasdaq was extremely overvalued. You can argue that it’s overvalued today, but it isn’t nearly to the old extremes. Two economic reports on the housing market today. Permits for future home construction hit a near 5-½ year-high in October and prices for single-family homes showed big gains in September, suggesting a run-up in mortgage interest rates has not derailed the housing …

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Uncategorized

Tuesday, November 27, 2012 – Economic Data, Geithner’s Cliff, Greek Bailout, Warren’s Pitch, Blankfein’s Irony

Economic Data, Geithner’s Cliff, Greek Bailout, Warren’s Pitch, Blankfein’s Irony by Sinclair Noe DOW – 89 = 12,878SPX – 7 = 1398NAS – 8 = 296710 YR YLD -.02 = 1.65%OIL – .45 = 87.29GOLD – 7.60 = 1742.80SILV – – .13 = 34.15 Durable goods orders leveled off in October, mainly because of slack demand for automobiles and airplanes and a reversal in defense orders. Most other manufacturers saw an uptick in demand; so, conditions aren’t getting worse; they aren’t getting better either. Or at least that is how it looks at first blush. Overall orders for durable goods were virtually flat in October, but factoring out the volatile defense and transportation industries, so-called core capital orders jumped 1.7% last month to mark the strongest gain since May. Home prices rose in September for the sixth straight month. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite posted a non-seasonally adjusted 0.3% increase in September to reach the highest level in two years, following a 0.8% gain in August. Home prices were up 3% from September 2011 for the largest annual percentage growth since July 2010. In the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reports that non-real estate debt jumped 2.3% to 2.7 trillion, with increases in student loans, auto loans, and credit card balances. Overall consumer debt shrank $74 billion to $11.3 trillion as mortgage debt decrease more than $120 billion. Nearly a quarter of a million people had a foreclosure tacked onto their …

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Uncategorized

Tuesday, May 29, 2012 – Dithering About Europe – by Sinclair Noe

DOW + 125 = 12,580SPX + 14 = 1332NAS + 33 = 287010 YR YLD -.01 = 1.73%OIL +.08 = 90.84GOLD – 18.90 = 1555.80SILV -.55 = 27.98PLAT – 9.00 = 1432.00 The reason du jour for today’s market gains: positive news regarding Greece. Really? I’m not buying it. Make up your own reason for today’s gains because we are just as likely to see declines tomorrow. Still, Europe is important. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser said Monday that people in the United States have no need “to get all in a dither” over Europe’s debt crisis. Plosser feels that Europe’s economic problems could even benefit the US in the short term. It is “not an unreasonable argument,” he said, that low US interest rates and gas prices in response to the uncertainty in Europe’s financial situation could offset any potential difficulties for the American economy. Plosser said Europe “is just throwing a lot of noise into the system right now. It makes reading the tea leaves particularly difficult right now.” He noted, however, that a “flood of liquidity” into the US seems much more likely than investors running from US financial institutions. But, he added, the Fed will be able to deal with any fallout from Europe’s economic troubles. He believes the Fed has the necessary tools to deal with the situation, no matter what the situation. So, how is the Euro situation likely to be resolved? Well, the Greek election is June 16, so the Euro …

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