Financial Review

Maalox Friday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-09-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks bounce at the end of a very bad week. Another (short) government shutdown. Winners and losers Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-09-2018

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Financial Review

A New Record for Record Highs

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-28-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Dow and S&P hit record highs, again. Copper 4-year high. Oil up. North Korea caught red handed. South Korea clamps down on bitcoin. A shift in the Senate. A very bad weather year. Looking for loopholes in the tax plan…. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-28-2017

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Financial Review

Quads

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-19-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow, S&P, Nasdaq and Russell all close at record highs. Passive investors continue to add money. Big money pros still act skittish. Earnings looking good for now. CBO scores repeal only and it is ugly. House tries a reset with the budget. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-19-2017

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Financial Review

Halftime

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-30-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Stock wrap for the day, month, quarter and first half – mainly higher. Wheat wins. Dollar down. Oil down. Buffett wins again. Consumer spending up. Sentiment down. Illinois teeters on junk. Send in the ATF. Happy 4th. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-30-2017

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Financial Review

Computer Says

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-13-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow, S&P, and Russell hit record highs. Computers have taken over stocks. Wholesale inflation flat. Home prices pop. NFIB small biz optimism flat. CFO optimism wanes. Waiting on the Fed. Mr. Sessions in the briar patch. Russian cyberattack was bigger than thought. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-13-2017

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Financial Review

Cats and Dogs

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-25-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..S&P and Nasdaq hit record highs. Retail leads? Trade gap grows. OPEC extends cuts. GM cheats on diesel, too. Appeals court slams immigration ban. Trump and NATO like cats and dogs. Senate to repeal Obamacare in 2020. Nvidia’s charmed existence. Hurricane season. We’re number 5!   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-25-2017

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Financial Review

The Last Jobs Report of 2015

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-08-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-08-2015 DOW – 167 = 16,346 SPX – 21 = 1922 NAS – 45 = 4643 10 Y – .02 = 2.13% OIL – .34 = 32.93 GOLD – 4.60 = 1105.60   The economy added 292,000 new jobs in December, much higher than estimates of 205,000 to 215,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0%. The October and November reports were revised higher to show an additional 50,000 new jobs. In the final three months of 2015, the U.S. added an average of 284,000 jobs. That’s the fastest pace in almost a year. For the past year the economy added 2.7 million jobs. In 2014 the economy added 3.1 million jobs; that’s the best 2 years for job growth since the late 1990s. The economy has added jobs for 70 consecutive months; right at 14 million jobs during that time.  Over the past year the unemployment rate has dropped from 5.7% to the current 5%.   Hiring in December was led by professional firms. They added 73,000 jobs, though almost half were temporary. Construction companies added 45,000 new workers (but that might be more a sign of mild winter weather across much of the country in December, rather than a big upsurge in construction). Over the year, construction added 263,000 jobs, compared with a gain of 338,000 jobs in 2014. Health care employment rose by 39,000, with most …

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Financial Review

Shoddy Excuse for a Market

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-25-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-25-2015 DOW – 204 = 15,666 SPX – 25 = 1867 NAS – 19 = 4506 10 YR YLD + .14 = 2.13% OIL + 1.07 = 39.31 GOLD – 14.50 = 1141.40 SILV .10 = 14.80   Leading Asian markets fell again with the Shanghai Composite Index closing with a 7.6% loss and the Nikkei down 4.0%, while other key Asian markets closed with milder losses and Hong Kong ended up in positive territory. European markets were broadly higher, led by the first rise in the FTSE 100 in 11 sessions; the FTSE closed up over 3%; the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 4.7 percent.   China’s stock market has dropped 22% in the past 4 sessions. Today, their central bank responded by cutting interest rates for one-year lending by 25 basis points to 4.6%, while the one-year deposit rate will fall a quarter of a percentage point to 1.75 percent. The required reserve ratio will be lowered by 50 basis points for all banks to cover funding gaps. China’s surprise yuan devaluation on Aug. 11 led to a tightening in liquidity as the PBOC subsequently bought its currency to stabilize the exchange rate and curb capital outflows. Roughly $4.5 trillion has evaporated from the Chinese markets since the middle of June – real, tangible wealth that no longer exists. Equities on mainland Chinese exchanges still trade at …

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Financial Review

Glitch/Print

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 163 = 17,568 SPX – 22 = 2079 NAS – 57 = 5088 10 YR YLD un 2.27% OIL – .31 = 48.14 GOLD + 9.10 = 1100.50 SILV + .08 = 14.84   Well, this turned out to be an ugly week. The Dow lost 600 points from the high a week ago. The Dow lost 2.8% on the week, dropping below its 200 day moving average. The S&P lost 2.1%; Nasdaq down 2.2%. The Russell 3000 was down 3.1% for the week. Amazon gave back about half of yesterday’s gain. Crude oil hit a 4-month low.   And if you are not quite sure what to make of the markets, that is understandable; they aren’t going up and they aren’t going down, we are in a sideways market; this might be the mother of all sideways markets. The Dow is in slightly negative territory year to date. The Dow has moved on either side of breakeven 21 times so far this year. According to research from Bespoke Investment, no other year has been so fickle, the closest being the 20 times the blue chip index swung in both 1934 and 1994. The S&P 500 went through the first half of the year without moving more than 3.5 percent in either direction.   Hedge funds are holding the first ever bet on a decline in gold …

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Financial Review

Flowers for Angela

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:19 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 6 = 17, 678 SPX + 5 = 2057 NAS + 13 = 4771 10 YR YLD + .01 = 1.83% OIL – .49 = 45.10 GOLD – 12.80 = 1282.30 SILV – .39 = 18.01 It’s snowing in New York; this is a really, really big blizzard and it could dump up to 3 feet of snow across the northeast, with winds up to 60 miles per hour. The storm has already caused more than 1,800 flight cancellations, roads are closed in New York City except for emergency vehicles, rail traffic is also shut down, and schools are closed, and expect power outages across the Northeast. The Super Bowl will be this weekend in Glendale, and temperatures are expected to be mid-70’s. The folks at the Phoenix Chamber of Commerce are doing their happy dance. This week’s economic calendar is packed, plus we are in earnings reporting season and some big names will post results this week. Microsoft reported after the close today, and we’ll get to that in just a moment. Apple reports tomorrow. Shell, Europe’s largest oil company, reports results on Thursday; it could be an early indicator of the damage being done to company earnings by lower oil prices. Ford Motor, the nation’s second-largest automaker, reports fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday. On Wednesday, the Fed will end its two-day policy meeting with a statement …

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Financial Review

Finally, Holograms

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-21-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 39 = 17,554 SPX + 9 = 2032 NAS + 12 = 4667 10 YR YLD + .05 = 1.85% OIL + .93 = 47.40 GOLD – 1.30 = 1293.90 SILV + .14 = 18.21 Gold moved above $1300 an ounce today. When was the last time you saw that? Last August. For the past 3 years, gold has been shellacked, but it is now testing an important level of resistance, and it coincides with the European Central Bank’s anticipated Quantitative Easing plan, which should be revealed on Thursday. Today we learned that an ECB executive board has called for bond purchases of roughly €50 billion per month over the next 12 months. The final number and details could change after the full board weighs in on the plan on Thursday. And the devil will be in details, and one of the most important is whether the ECB will let Greece play in their QE games. The Bank of Japan held off expanding its stimulus program today, even as they cut their core inflation forecast to 1% from 1.7%. Two Bank of England policy makers dropped calls for higher interest rates. Elsewhere, the battle against inflation intensified as the Bank of Canada unexpectedly cut interest rates for the first time since 2009, saying the oil price shock will drag down inflation. The Bank of Canada is lowering …

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Financial Review

One Thing Is One Thing

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 27 = 17,613 SPX – 5 = 2023 NAS – 3 = 4661 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.89% OIL – .03 = 46.04 GOLD – 2.30 = 1232.10 SILV + .43 = 17.14 The stock market went south so fast. We started the day with a triple digit gain, up more than 250 points, then down by more than 100; there was a 425 point swing from high to low. It is earnings reporting season. Shares of home builder KB Homes fell 16% after reporting softer demand in the fourth quarter hit gross margins, which will continue to lag prior-year results for some time. CSX, the railroad company, today announced record fourth-quarter 2014 net earnings of $491 million, a 15 percent increase from $426 million for the same period last year. The company also generated record fourth-quarter earnings per share of $0.49, up 17 percent from $0.42 per share in 2013. Tomorrow, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo will report earnings; Bank of America reports on Thursday, and Goldman Sachs on Friday. MetLife wants the government off its back. The US’s biggest life insurer is going to sue to challenge its designation as “systemically important”. The institutions that receive the designation are expected to bolster their capital and liquidity and to submit to heightened monitoring by the Federal Reserve under the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act to prevent another …

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Financial Review

Third World Stuff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-15-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 173 = 16,141 SPX – 15 = 1862 NAS – 11 = 4215 10 YR YLD – .11 = 2.09% OIL – .13 = 81.71 GOLD + 8.90 = 1242.10 SILV + .05 = 17.55 Go back a mere 18 trading sessions and the market was at all-time highs. The Dow hit an intraday high of 17,350 and a closing high of 17,279, on September 19th; that was 18 trading sessions in the past. For the Nasdaq composite we have seen a 10% correction from recent highs. That means this drop happened fast, and it also means the bear may have more room to run; this move is not mature in terms of duration or magnitude. The major indices have dropped under the 200 day moving average; we were waiting for confirmation; we got it. The S&P looked to bounce off a different trendline. If you draw a straight line across the S&P lows beginning with the lows from 2011, which is where we saw support and a bounce today, at the 1820 level; it is also very close to the support levels from April at about 1815, which we talked about on Monday. That is an intermediate level of support, but it held today, and you have to respect the line, unless or until it breaks down. Once we hit certain levels, people start to feel the pain and …

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Uncategorized

Monday, April 07, 2014 – I Don’t Know, They Don’t Know

I Don’t Know, They Don’t Know by Sinclair Noe DOW – 166 = 16,245SPX – 20 = 1845NAS – 47 = 407910 YR YLD – .03 = 2.69%OIL – .44 = 100.70GOLD – 5.40 = 1297.90SILV – .09 = 19.97 The biggest 3 day drop in the markets in about 2 months. All of the sudden we start hearing the Wall Street stock peddlers waxing enthusiastic about the prospects for a correction or a crash or whatever will scare you. Fear sells; with talk about a 1987-like stock market crash, geopolitical unrest in Ukraine and the risk of a debt crisis in China, investors are starting to get jittery. I don’t know, they don’t know. The big pullback so far has been in the Nasdaq, and especially biotech stocks. As always, you want an exit plan in place before you ever get into a trade; and if you don’t have an exit plan, get one now. You don’t make money by letting profits slip through your fingers. Earnings season gets underway this week. Expectations have been ratcheted down; at the start of the year, S&P 500 companies were projected to have grown earnings at 6.5%, now that estimate has slipped to 1.2%. We could see companies beat diminished expectations and start a fresh rally or miss expectations and the markets could get a bit ugly. The simple rule of thumb is that when the trailing P/E ratios hit 10, the S&P 500 is likely undervalued; when the P/E hits 20, …

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