Financial Review

The End of Summer

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-21-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-21-2015 DOW + 125 = 16,510 SPX + 8 = 1966 NAS + 1 = 4828 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.21% OIL – .26 = 46.42 GOLD – 6.50 = 1134.40 SILV + .03 = 15.31   The National Association of Realtors says sales of previously owned homes fell 4.8% in August to an annual pace of 5.31 million, marking the first decline in four months. The sales rate in July was revised down slightly to a seasonally adjusted 5.58 million, but that was still the highest level in eight years. The median price of homes sold was up 4.7% to $228,700 from 12 months ago. Inventories of existing homes on the market rose 1.3% to 2.29 million, representing 5.2 months’ supply at current sales trends. Sales fell in all major regions except the Northeast, where they were unchanged.   The Federal Reserve reports businesses racked up new debt at an annual rate of 8.3% in the second quarter. That was the fastest growth since the first quarter of 2008 and was driven mostly by corporate bond issuance. While issuing debt, the corporate stockpile of cash rose to $2.06 trillion from $1.99 trillion. The Fed report also shows that households and nonprofits saw their net worth increase by $695 billion in the second quarter, mostly due to the rise in home values but also due to the …

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Financial Review

Into the Ditch

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-21-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW -181 = 17,919 SPX – 9 = 2119 NAS -10 = 5208 10 YR YLD – 3 = 2.34% OIL + .21 = 50.36 GOLD + 3.30 = 1102.00 SILV + .18 = 14.95     Earnings reporting season continues with about one-quarter of S&P 500 companies scheduled to report this week. Among the gainers: Harley Davidson posted second quarter earnings and revenue that topped expectations, Travelers posted a second-quarter profit that was better than expected, due to fewer losses from catastrophes. Among the decliners: United Technologies issued a profit warning and announced that its aerospace and elevator units will be below expectations due to a strong dollar and China’s economic slump, IBM’s second quarter earnings fell 17% and revenue dropped 13%, Verizon posted better than expected earnings but revenue missed estimates, Lexmark swung to a loss and announced it will cut 500 jobs.   The big news in earnings came from some of the biggest names: Apple and Microsoft. Apple sold 47.5 million iPhones, a 35 percent gain, in the period that ended in June. Analysts had anticipated 48.8 million shipments. Net income in the fiscal third quarter, which ended in June, was $10.7 billion, or $1.85 a share, while revenue rose 33 percent to $49.6 billion. Analysts on average had forecast third-quarter profit of $1.81 a share on sales of $49.4 billion. The gross margin was 39.7 percent, …

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Wednesday, June 19, 2016 – Don’t Fight It

Don’t Fight It by Sinclair Noe DOW – 206 = 15,112 SPX – 22 = 1628NAS – 38 = 344310 YR YLD + .13 = 2.31%OIL – .52 = 98.15GOLD – 17.00 = 1352.30SILV – .34 = 21.45 One of the best known adages in the financial world is “Don’t fight the Fed”. Marty Zweig is credited with that sage wisdom. Zweig was a professor of finance, and a financial analyst; he went on to become a hedge fund manager and he wrote a newsletter. He famously bet that the market would go down in 1987, and by October of that year he was short the market and made a big profit while most other money managers were getting clobbered. “Don’t fight the Fed”; that meant, according to Zweig’s theory, that if interest rates were going down, stocks would go up, and vice versa. He also claimed the way to make money was to be risk-averse, rather than taking chances on the upside. He said he was a big poker player while at Wharton, but had stopped playing when he became a money manager because he hated losing. In addition to “Don’t fight the Fed”, Zweig is credited with the adage, “Don’t fight the tape”; in other words, the market will have the last word, and complaining that the market is wrong is an excellent way to lose money. Zweig had a third rule: “Never relax”. Today the Federal Reserve concluded their Federal Open Market Committee meeting; they issued a …

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Thursday, May 30, 2013 – The Money Laundering Criminals at HSBC and Standard Chartered Continue to Skate

05302013 Script The Money Laundering Criminals at HSBC and Standard Chartered Continue to Skate by Sinclair Noe DOW + 21 = 15,324SPX + 6 = 1654NAS + 23 = 349110 YR YLD un = 2.12%OIL + .45 = 93.58GOLD + 21.00 = 1414.70SILV + .32 = 22.88PLAT + 31.00 = 1487.00PAL + 8.00 = 761.00 So, apparently Wall Street moved higher today because the economy looks weaker and that means the Fed won’t taper or quit QE. It’s twisted logic, but we figured it out a while back. The weak economic news started with this week’s initial claims for jobless benefits; applications increased by 10,000 to 354,000. One week does not make a trend. Next week we’ll get the jobs report for the month of May. Today’s figures were just a reminder that the Fed won’t have an easy path to end QE without crushing the labor market. In a separate report, the Commerce Department said first-quarter gross domestic product was revised down to 2.4%, down from an initial estimate of 2.5%.  The gain in first-quarter growth follows a sluggish increase of 0.4% in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending increased, but that was likely due to higher prices for gasoline and electricity. Government expenditures fell by 4.9%, up from initial estimates of a 4.1% drop. The bulk of the decline was in military spending. Inflation as measured by the PCE index was muted, rising just 1.0% overall or by 1.3% excluding food and energy. So, the economy is slowing, the …

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Friday, March 22, 2013 – And the Award Goes to…

And the Award Goes to… by Sinclair Noe DOW + 90 = 14,512SPX + 11 = 1556NAS + 22 = 324510 YR YLD – .02 = 1.91%OIL + 1.35 = 93.80GOLD – 5.60 = 1610.20SILV – .42 = 28.86 For the second time this year, the S&P 500 was down on the week, slipping 0.2% over the past five trading sessions. The Dow and the Nasdaq Comp also ended just a smidge lower for the week. Cyprus has been a big concern this week. It is a tiny little island in the Mediterranean, and it is just a blip on the overall Euro-economy, but it could have big implications for the Euro-zone; which is something like the Hotel California; you can check in any time you please, but you can never leave. If Cyprus does leave, or get kicked out of the Euro, others may follow suit. If Spain or Italy leaves the Euro, there is no more Euro. It has also not helped confidence in the euro that the Cypriot crisis has erupted at a time when other troubling problems are now raising their ugly heads in Europe. Less than a month ago, the electorate in Italy, the euro area’s third largest economy and a country with around 2 trillion-euro in public debt, voted overwhelmingly against austerity and structural reform. Imposing fiscal austerity on the periphery in those circumstances only seems to drive the periphery ever deeper into economic recession. Actually, depression may be more descriptive. In Greece and …

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Monday, December 10, 2012 – The Fed After the Twist, Italy After Monti, China After 2030, Warming After Doha

The Fed After the Twist, Italy After Monti, China After 2030, Warming After Doha by Sinclair Noe DOW + 14 = 13169SPX +0.48 = 1418NAS + 8 = 298610YR YLD -.01 = 1.62%OIL -.25 = 85.68GOLD + 8.10 = 1713.60SILV + .16 = 33.37 Economic reports due this week are not likely to be market movers. Tomorrow we’ll see data on wholesale trade, plus the trade deficit; a report on how many new job opening exist. Later in the week, we’ll find out about retail sales. The big event this week is the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting Tuesday and Wednesday. The Fed will be looking at the unemployment numbers from Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 7.7% from 7.9%, but that was because more people dropped out of the labor force. Usually that’s not a good sign because it means jobs are harder to find. Ultimately the Fed wants to see the jobless rate fall to 6% or less, the same levels that prevailed before the 2008 meltdown. Nobody seems to think there will be a big uptick in new jobs. Lackluster hiring means consumer spending is unlikely to rocket higher. Too many people remain out of work and the growth in the average worker’s paycheck isn’t even keeping up with the low increase in annual inflation. Business are waiting for the consumer to spend, consumers are waiting for businesses to hire. Something needs to happen to kick start the economy, a jolt of stimulus, but don’t hold out for …

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Thursday, December 6, 2012 – Dude, Watch Out for That Cliff

Dude, Watch Out for That Cliff by Sinclair Noe DOW + 39 = 13,074SPX + 4 = 1413NAS + 15 = 298910 YR YLD -.01 = 1.58%OIL – 1.44 = 86.44GOLD + 5.70 = 1701.00 SILV + .12 = 33.13 So, Barack Obama and John Boehner have figured out a way to deal with this whole fiscal cliff, man. There going to go to Seattle, Washington and they’re gonna smoker reefers and drink coffee until they come up with, like a really great idea, dude. Why not? It wouldn’t be any worse than what they’re doing now. In economic news: New applications for unemployment benefits dropped for the third straight week, but we’re still not back to the levels before Hurricane Sandy. Initial jobless claims declined by 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 370,000 in the week ended Dec. 1. Tomorrow is the monthly jobs report; don’t expect it to reveal any long term trend; it will be distorted by the Hurricane and also by the holiday shopping season. The guess is for about 75,000 new jobs in November, well below the average for the past few months. The Federal Reserve issues a quarterly flow of funds report; the most recent volume shows households trying to cut back on debt in the third quarter; or at least cutting mortgage debt, while student loan debt and car loan debt piled up. When factoring in inflation, American households have deleveraged by about 13% since the meltdown of 2008. In the third quarter, a …

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Tuesday, September 18, 2012 – Maybe We’ll Just Keep Plugging Along

Maybe We’ll Just Keep Plugging Along -by Sinclair Noe DOW + 11 = 13,564SPX – 1 = 1459NAS -0.87 = 317710 YR YLD -.03 = 1.81%OIL +.24 = 95.53GOLD + 8.60 = 1772.10SILV + .53 = 34.88PLAT – 38.00 = 1635.00 FedEx lowered its outlook for global growth and industrial production when it reported fiscal first-quarter earnings. That has negative implications for energy demand. The world’s No. 2 package delivery company forecast a continued slowdown in global trade. Yesterday, we told you about the little flash crash in oil. The price of a barrel of oil dropped $3 in about one minute for no apparent reason. There were rumors of an announced or leaked SPR release decision, then there were rumors of an algorithmic trade gone bad. The timing was suspect; the equity and other markets have rallied due to all of the announced and expected easing measures from the Fed and the ECB; the belief is that consumption and economic growth will necessarily follow due to extremely low interest rates and the positive effect of inflation on asset values. And commodity prices, including oil, moved higher after QE 1&2. So, it was strange to see prices just drop for no apparent reason; they seemed to collapse of their own weight. Maybe the outlook for the economy is more dire than we think. Maybe demand for oil is far less than projected. Maybe the Fed has done all they can and they’ve run out of firepower. Maybe the odd price …

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Friday, August 17, 2012 – We All Want Justice but You’ve Got to Have Money to Buy It

We All Want Justice but You’ve Got to Have Money to Buy It-by Sinclair Noe  DOW + 25 = 13,275SPX + 2 = 1418NAS + 14 = 307610 YR YLD -.02 = 1.82%OIL + .61 = 96.21GOLD + 1.10 = 1616.80SILV – .13 = 28.19 PLAT + 34.00 = 1479.00 We had a bunch of economic reports this week. Here’s a quick review:The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, measures inflation at the retail level; in July the overall consumer prices were unchanged, while the core gauge rose 0.2%. The CPI rose 1.4% over the year through July, the smallest 12-month change since late 2010.  The Producer Price Index, or PPI, measures inflation at the wholesale level; it rose 0.3% in July. Higher  food prices were only slightly offset by lower energy prices. In the 12 months ending in July, producer prices rose 0.5%, the smallest gain since October 2009.  However, food prices jumped, with corn prices leading the way, up 34.5% for the month. That will filter through the economy. Energy prices were down in July, but they’ve been moving higher. Inflation is not a problem right now, but wait.  Initial filings for unemployment benefits climb by 2,000 to 366,000 in the latest week, but the four-week moving average dropped to its lowest level since March. While the July unemployment figure rose a tenth of a point from June to 8.3 percent, the government says 44 states saw their jobless rates increase. Nevada has the highest unemployment rate at 12%. California …

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Wednesday, August 15, 2012 – I’ve Never Been to Spain and I’ve Never Seen a Flash Flamenco

I’ve Never Been to Spain and I’ve Never Seen a Flash Flamenco– by Sinclair Noe DOW – 7 = 13,164SPX  + 1 = 1405NAS + 13 = 303010 YR YLD +.08 = 1.80%OIL -.07 = 94.26GOLD + 4.10 = 1604.10SILV un = 27.93PLAT un = 1400.00 JPMorgan Chase, Barclays, UBS,  Deutsche Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, HSBC Holdings, and Lloyd’s are the seven banks subpoenaed in the past week in New York and Connecticut’s investigation into alleged manipulation of Libor. Citigroup and UBS received subpoenas earlier this year as part of the investigation. New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman and Connecticut Attorney General George Jepsen are jointly investigating alleged manipulation of the London interbank offered rate, or Libor.  Meanwhile, HSBC has handed over details of current and former employees to the US authorities as part of a tax probe that almost sank rival bank UBS in 2009. As a result, the bank may be sued by the former employees claiming banks infringed the criminal code and Swiss privacy laws. HSBC claims it has avoided breaching strict Swiss banking secrecy laws by redacting from the documents any information that could lead to the identification of clients. Yesterday, I told you that Standard Chartered had reached a settlement with New York State regulators. There will be no criminal prosecutions as a result of the settlement, mainly because the New York state regulator doesn’t have prosecutorial powers. You may also recall that when this story broke last week, one of the first things …

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