Financial Review

Carry On

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-06-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Stocks bounce back. A 3 month deal on debt ceiling. Highest taxes? Nope. Fischer resigns from Fed. Beige Book moderation. Trade deficit up. Service sector solid. Irma on the way. Closing the Gap. RH bounce. Intel win. New Leaf. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-06-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

End of Easy

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-03-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Rate hike coming and that right soon. Prepare for the end of easy. ISM services stay strong. Sessions recusal. Pence private email. EPA budget cut. After multiple sticks, Wilbur Ross offers Mexico a carrot. Visa for Eurozone. May chastises Scots. Spotify grows. Making money in a Snap. Mercedes made a pickup truck, and you can’t have it. Banks reap record profits. Amazon’s typo crashes the internets. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-03-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

When Others Are Greedy

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-16-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Another Dow record, barely. What’s sparking the rally. It’s a mess, except it isn’t. Optimism abounds. Fed sees strengthening economy. Philly Fed Mfg Survey at 33 year high. Housing starts down but permits up. Jobless claims still look strong. $16 billion for an app – Snap. Oil higher. OPEC is cutting but US is exporting. Biggest coal plant in the west slated to close.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-16-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Turkey

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-21-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all hit all-time highs. Dollar slips. OPEC wants higher prices. Fischer ready for fiscal stimulus and a rate hike. Dividends drop. Anthem-Cigna deal goes to DOJ. Symantec buys LifeLock. Nokia in a drone world. Alibaba attacks the Cloud. Microsoft builds a quantum supercomputer. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-21-2016.

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Like a Bird on a Wire

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-11-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow record high. Commodities, financials up. Bonds, tech and emerging markets down. Fed jawbones for higher rates. Trump transition takes shape. Trumpcare takes shape vaguely. Happy Singles Day. App judgment. Super moon rising. Veterans Day thanks. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-11-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Decent August Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-02-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSJobs report Friday. The economy added 151,000 job. The unemployment rate holds at 4.9%. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-02-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Taxman Bites Apple

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-30-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSS&P stays in tight, tight range. EU wants $14.5 billion chunk of Apple for sweetheart tax deal in Ireland. Apple, Ireland, and the US are outraged. Election day in AZ. Home prices higher. Consumer confidence is higher but it’ll get worse. TTIP in jeopardy. Stopping a revolving door. Banks’ profits grow. Zika reaches Asia. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-30-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

No Argument for Bulls

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-19-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSThe Fed chases the bulls away. Say it ain’t so Lefty. What you see in the mirror. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-19-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Or Just Google It

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-01-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-01-2016 DOW – 17 = 16,449 SPX – 0.86 = 1939 NAS + 6 = 4620 10 Y + .04 = 1.97% OIL – 2.23 = 31.39 GOLD + 10.20 = 1129.00   Following the S&P’s worst January since 2009 ( down -5.1%), and a volatile month for oil prices, about a fifth of S&P 500 companies will report earnings this week, while lots of economic data (manufacturing figures, auto sales and Friday’s jobs report) could also help determine the future direction of stocks. The consensus estimate calls for about 185,000 net new jobs in January, down from 292,000 in December. And just a reminder that last Friday brought the first look at fourth quarter GDP, which grew at an anemic 0.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That’s a bad quarter to be sure, and real GDP is up only 1.8% from a year ago. That’s a weak year judged by the US postwar average of 3.1%, but is not far from the 2.1% annual growth we’ve been averaging since 2009. The Atlanta Fed model’s initial estimate for first-quarter growth has been published; the “Nowcast” of first-quarter growth calls for 1.2% annualized growth. Weak, but not recessionary.   Also on Friday, the Bank of Japan moved to negative interest rates; this Wednesday BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is scheduled to speak. Today, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi addressed …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

What Puzzle?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-20-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-20-2015 DOW + 91 = 17,823 SPX + 7 = 2089 NAS + 31 = 5104 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.26% OIL – .15 = 40.39 GOLD – 4.80 = 1078.00 SILV – .16 = 14.23     The S&P gained 3.3% for the week, its best showing since December. The Dow rose 3.4% for the week and the Nasdaq added 3.6%. And now we begin the Santa Claus rally on Wall Street, which kicks off with the Turkey Shoot. For 35 years prior to 1987, the Wednesday before and the Friday after Thanksgiving combined were up 33 times. The only declines were in 1964 and 1965. Subsequently, this trend changed. In the 28 years since 1987, there have been 12 declines and 16 advances. As Thanksgiving bullishness lost steam in 1987, the rally afterwards occurred more frequently. Since 1987, DJIA has logged gains in 22 of 28 years from the close on Friday after Thanksgiving to yearend. The S&P 500 is up 0.5% in November and 1.5% thus far in 2015. There are 28 trading days remaining in 2015.  And going back to 1950, December is the best month of the year for the S&P 500 with the final 30 days of a year producing a mean gain of 2.36%. There could still be a black swan or some other exogenous event. This does not …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

It Was All Yellow

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-31-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-31-2015 DOW – 114 = 16,528 SPX – 16 = 1972 NAS – 51 = 4776 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.20% OIL + 2.80 = 48.02 GOLD + .60 = 1135.40 SILV + .04 = 14.73   Both the Dow and S&P had five days of gains or losses of more than 2 percent in August, making it the most volatile month in nearly four years. In August, the S&P lost 6.3 percent, the Dow fell 6.6 percent and the Nasdaq declined 6.9 percent. As far as Augusts go, this has been the worst performance for the Dow in 17 years. Overall it was the sixth worst monthly performance for the Dow and the worst since May 2010, when the Dow dropped 7.9%. For the S&P 500, it was the worst August since 2001; all 10 of the major S&P sectors were down for the month.   Investors are still divided over whether the Federal Reserve will hike rates next month, with Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer adding to the doubts in Jackson Hole over the weekend, saying: “At this moment, we are following developments in the Chinese economy and their actual and potential effects on other economies even more closely than usual.” Fischer was careful to announce he wasn’t signaling an impending rate rise, but the remarks suggest a September move hasn’t been ruled out of the FOMC’s next …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Fired Up

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-26-2015 DOW + 619 = 16,285 SPX + 72 = 1940 NAS + 191 = 4697 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.17% OIL – .44 = 38.87 GOLD – 15.00 = 1126.40 SILV – .58 = 14.21   Stocks finally snapped a weeklong string of severe declines. The gain was the third-highest point gain in history for the Dow Jones industrials but, on a percentage basis, the 4% gain was not even in the top 20 historically. The Dow opened with a 443-point surge, pulled back and then rallied again to finish near its highs of the day, unlike yesterday when stocks surrendered their entire early gains and turned negative in the final hour of trade.   In China, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.3%, despite a new $22 billion injection from Beijing to shore up growth. Chinese equities have now extended their steepest five-day drop since 1996, losing half their value, or $5 trillion, since mid-June. Shares elsewhere in Asia ended mixed; European stocks were deep in the red.   We started with some strong economic data. Durable-goods orders rose a seasonally adjusted 2% last month after a 4.1% gain in June. Bookings for new cars and trucks and military hardware led the way. Orders rose 4% for autos and 22.3% for large defense goods such as fighter jets, missiles and tanks. Orders for aircraft dropped 6%. …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Half True

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-10-2015 DOW + 241 = 17,615 SPX + 26 = 2104 NAS + 58 = 5101 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.24% OIL + .95 = 44.82 GOLD + 10.30 = 1105.10 SILV + .41 = 15.33   Berkshire Hathaway is buying Precision Castparts for $235 per share in cash in a deal worth about $37 billion. On Friday, Precision Castparts closed at $193.94, meaning Berkshire is paying a 21% premium to own the company. Berkshire originally began investing in Precision Castparts in 2012 and had already acquired a 3% stake before today’s announcement. Berkshire Hathaway posted disappointing earnings on Friday. Revenue for the second quarter came in at $54 billion. Precision Castparts makes parts for the aerospace industry, and also the energy industry; their major customers are Boeing, General Electric, and Airbus. This is a company with a large moat; there is a big barrier for new competition; GE isn’t going to outsource parts inside a jet engine for a couple of dollars savings. And there is a good chance that PCP can make some decent sized acquisitions to consolidate its industry, or what Buffett calls “bolt-on’ acquisitions.   When you consider some of the recent acquisitions by Warren Buffett, it becomes clear that Berkshire Hathaway is no longer a pseudo-hedge fund or quasi-mutual fund. It is a diversified conglomerate with interests in heavy industry, transportation, …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Spend Your Time Wisely

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 23 = 17,619 SPX + 5 = 2063 NAS + 28 = 4986 10 YR YLD un = 2.33% OIL + 1.14 = 59.47 GOLD – 7.50 = 1173.60 SILV – .09 = 15.77   Today marks the end of the second quarter; we are halfway through the year. The stock market has been trading in an extremely tight range. After a weak January and a rebound in February, the major indices have moved sideways for 4 months. The Dow Industrials are down 204 points for the first half; the Nasdaq Composite is up 250 points for the first six months; the S&P 500 gained 5 points year to date. The S&P 500 is in the tightest trading range for the first half of a year in more than 2 decades. At some point it will break up or break down; as it is 2015 marks the worst first half of a year for the S&P 500 since 2010.   For the month of June, the Dow fell 2.2 percent, the S&P 500 fell 2.1 percent and the Nasdaq fell 1.6 percent. For the second quarter, the Dow fell 0.9 percent, the S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent. For the Dow and the S&P, that snaps a string of 9 consecutive quarters of gains. The Nasdaq rose 1.8 percent in its tenth straight quarterly advance. During the quarter, the Nasdaq hit its first records since …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

A Short Week

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 190 = 18,041 SPX – 21 = 2104 NAS – 56 = 5032 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.14% OIL – 1.37 = 58.35 GOLD – 18.10 = 1188.80 SILV – .35 = 16.82   The S&P/Case-Shiller Home price index shows prices for existing homes rose in March. Both the 10- and 20-City Composites increased significantly, reporting 0.8% and 0.9% month-over-month increases, respectively. Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites saw year-over-year increases in March. The 10-City Composite gained 4.7% year-over-year, while the 20-City Composite gained 5.0% year-over-year.  Phoenix saw prices increase 0.6% in March,

READ MORE →