Financial Review

Trump Budget

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-23-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Trump budget proposal includes big increases in defense spending and big cuts to social programs. Based on 3% GDP growth. Hits Social Security and Medicaid. Let the budget battles begin.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-23-2017

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Financial Review

Go Placidly

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-S_EG_1-05-19-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Stocks bounce today but down for the week amid the noise and hast. Oil tops $50. Brazil’s faces more corruption problems. AT&T weekend strike. Fiat-Chrysler and VW work on diesel scam fix. Student loan debt collection wasted. Americans don’t have a cash cushion. We know where the money is hiding.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-19-2017

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Financial Review

Slow Motion Domino

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-10-2015 DOW + 27 = 17,758 SPX + 3 = 2081 NAS – 12 = 5083 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.32% OIL + .22 = 44.09 GOLD – 2.50 = 1090.40 SILV – .14 = 14.54   Crude prices are set for a slow recovery, according to the latest report from the International Energy Agency, which warned against the deep investment cutbacks in the industry. In its World Energy Outlook, the IEA’s central scenario for oil prices forecast that the market would rebalance at around $50 to $80 per barrel in 2020, (a not very precise guess) “with further increases in price thereafter.” It also predicted that collectively, the U.S., EU and Japan would see their oil demand drop by around 10 million barrels a day by 2040.   Oil production from the Bakken and Eagle Ford shale plays in the U.S. has been falling since March. Total oil output from seven major U.S. shale regions is expected to fall by 118,000 barrels a day to about 4.95 million barrels a day in December. There is no evidence at current prices that rig drilling activity will recover any time this year, so we can expect ever lower production every month well into 2016. That doesn’t mean a quick increase in prices, in part because Iranian oil is expected to come online as sanctions are lifted, and also …

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Financial Review

Monday, June 09, 2014 – Record Highs and a Few Crumbs

Record Highs and a Few Crumbs by Sinclair Noe DOW + 18 = 16,943 SPX + 1 = 1951 NAS + 14 = 4336 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.61% OIL + 1.73 = 104.39 GOLD – .30 = 1253.00 SILV + .05 = 19.16   The major indices are now up for 4 consecutive sessions. The Dow Industrials hit a record high close for the 10th time this year. The S&P is now up 14 of the last 17 trading sessions. The last time the Dow experienced a 10% correction was back in October 2011; since then, the Dow has gained almost 60% over 32 months without a 10% correction. Typically, you can expect a correction about every 12 months on average. The longest period without at least a 10% pullback was an 82 month run from 1990-1997. The S&P 500 hit a record high close for the 19th time this year. The S&P bull market is now at 62 months and counting, the best run since 1994 to 2000.   The CBOE Volatility Index moved a little higher today to 11.34. On Friday, the VIX hit a low of 10.73, the lowest level since January 2007. The VIX can go low and stay low for an extended period of time. In 2007, after hitting a low, the VIX steadily rose for the remainder of the year but stock prices didn’t peak until the end of 2007. The VIX measures options trades, but does it really mean investors …

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Financial Review

Wednesday, May 21, 2014 – Congratulations Graduates, Yada, Yada, Yada

Congratulations Graduates, Yada, Yada, Yada by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 158 = 16,533 SPX + 15 = 1888 NAS + 34 = 4131 10 YR + .02 = 2.53% OIL – 33 = 103.74 GOLD – 2.40 = 1292.90 SIL  un = 19.49   Earnings season is winding down; about 96% of S&P 500 companies have reported results, with profit growth this quarter of 5.5% and revenue up 2.8%. While more companies have topped earnings expectations than usual, fewer have beat on the revenue side. This has been an ongoing theme for corporate profits; bottom line growth without corresponding sales. If this formula sounds unsustainable, it is, unless there is some other factor pumping up the markets.   Follow-up from yesterday: China has signed a 30-year deal to buy Russian natural gas worth about $400 billion. The gas deal gives Moscow an economic boost at a time when Washington and the European Union have imposed visa bans and asset freezes on dozens of Russian officials and several companies over Ukraine. It allows Russia to diversify its markets for gas, which now goes mostly to Europe; essentially opening the door to Asia’s gas market and potentially closing the door on the petro-dollar.   The Federal Reserve today released the minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting. Fed policymakers considered several approaches to tightening monetary policy, but decided to remain flexible; which is another way of saying QE is a big experiment and they are just hoping nothing explodes in their …

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Wednesday, July 03, 2013 – Independence Day

Independence Day by Sinclair Noe DOW + 56 = 14,988SPX + 1 = 1615NAS + 10 = 3443 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.50%OIL + 1.64 = 101.24GOLD + 10.10 = 1253.50SILV + .34 = 19.82 Today is Independence Day. I know; the Fourth of July is tomorrow, but it is Independence Day in Egypt, or Coup Day, or something. They had huge crowds in Tahrir Square and they celebrated with fireworks, so let’s called it Independence Day. We’re not really sure what it is, but we know a few things. There has been a revolution. The Egyptian army has overthrown President Mohamed Morsi, announcing a roadmap for the country’s political future that will be implemented by a national reconciliation committee. The head of Egypt’s armed forces issued a declaration today suspending the constitution and appointing the head of the constitutional court as interim head of state. Morsi’s presidential Facebook page quoted the disposed president as saying he rejected the army statement as a military coup. Morsi was the head of the Muslim Brotherhood and he had served for one year as president, after being democratically elected, following the revolution that overthrew the sort-of democratically elected dictator Hosni Mubarak. Democracy can be messy. And these are messy, noisy, uncertain and unpredictable days for Egypt. The country is in unchartered territory. The economy is under severe pressure. Most institutions are weak. A credible leader is yet to emerge with widespread support. And, to make things worse, there is no play …

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Wednesday, May 15, 2013 – Have Another Cookie

Have Another Cookie by Sinclair Noe DOW + 60 = 15275SPX + 8 = 1658NAS + 9 = 347110 YR YLD – .01 = 1.94%OIL + .18 = 94.39GOLD – 33.30 = 1393.50SILV – .82 = 22.69 More record highs on Wall Street. We celebrate with milk and cookies, and remembrances of the days of rice and beans and tins of tuna. Record highs are fleeting, almost ephemeral. I know the trend is your friend; don’t fight the Fed; a rising tide lifts all boats; yada, yada. Why is this starting to feel like an asset bubble? Stock Traders Daily did a comparison of quarter to quarter earnings and revenue growth rates for the S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials: “For the past two consecutive quarters, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had zero growth. In fact, this quarter revenue growth declined by 2.65% (25 companies reporting thus far) and earnings have barely budged. Last quarter, there was negative earnings growth with revenue growth less than 1%, and since the third quarter of 2010, the EPS growth rate for the Dow has been declining steadily.” So, the growth rate is at zero and the prices keep going higher. Don’t worry, have another cookie; after 13 years in the market, you should be back to break even. Meanwhile, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing-market index rose to 44 in May from 41 in April. The NAHB says builders are noting an increased sense of urgency among potential buyers as …

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Wednesday, April 10, 2013 – The Real Question on the Economy

The Real Question on the Economy by Sinclair Noe DOW + 128 = 14, 802SPX + 19 = 1587NAS + 59 = 329710 YR YLD +.06 = 1.80%OIL +.35 = 94.55GOLD – 25.70 = 1560.30SILV – .33 = 27.75 The Federal Reserve released the minutes of their Federal Open Market Committee meeting held March 19-20. The minutes leaked out 5 hours early. The Fed inadvertently sent the report to congressional aides and trade organizations yesterday, and since the details are actually trade-able information, they had to make it public quicker than not. Make no mistake, this was a serious breach of protocol. Once the minutes were made public, it depressed bond prices, mainly because of disagreements among the Fed’s 19 policymakers about carrying on with buying $85 billion in Treasury and mortgage bonds per month to stimulate the economy. Of the 12 officials who have a vote on monetary policy this year, “a few” expected to taper the purchases around midyear and to end them later this year. “Several others thought that if the outlook for labor market conditions improved as anticipated, it would probably be appropriate to slow purchases later in the year and to stop them by year-end.” Proving once again that the prognosticating skills of the Federal Reserve are roughly equal to the singing skills of a fish on a bicycle. Just like the release of the minutes, their ideas about exiting QE seem a bit premature, especially in light of last week’s jobs report, which you …

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Thursday, December 6, 2012 – Dude, Watch Out for That Cliff

Dude, Watch Out for That Cliff by Sinclair Noe DOW + 39 = 13,074SPX + 4 = 1413NAS + 15 = 298910 YR YLD -.01 = 1.58%OIL – 1.44 = 86.44GOLD + 5.70 = 1701.00 SILV + .12 = 33.13 So, Barack Obama and John Boehner have figured out a way to deal with this whole fiscal cliff, man. There going to go to Seattle, Washington and they’re gonna smoker reefers and drink coffee until they come up with, like a really great idea, dude. Why not? It wouldn’t be any worse than what they’re doing now. In economic news: New applications for unemployment benefits dropped for the third straight week, but we’re still not back to the levels before Hurricane Sandy. Initial jobless claims declined by 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 370,000 in the week ended Dec. 1. Tomorrow is the monthly jobs report; don’t expect it to reveal any long term trend; it will be distorted by the Hurricane and also by the holiday shopping season. The guess is for about 75,000 new jobs in November, well below the average for the past few months. The Federal Reserve issues a quarterly flow of funds report; the most recent volume shows households trying to cut back on debt in the third quarter; or at least cutting mortgage debt, while student loan debt and car loan debt piled up. When factoring in inflation, American households have deleveraged by about 13% since the meltdown of 2008. In the third quarter, a …

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Wednesday, August 29, 2012 – Today’s Debt and GDP

Today’s Debt and GDP  By Sinclair Noe DOW + 4 = 13, 107SPX + 1 = 1410NAS + 4 = 308110 Yr Yld +.02 = 1.65% OIL – 1.02 = 96.80GOLD – 10.50 = 1657.10SILV – .17 = 30.83PLAT – 3.00 = 1521.00 The month of August has been basically flat, looking at the major market indices, just a couple of points movement. You may recall that last March I was warning you about the worst six months in the market, the old idea of “sell in May and stay away”. On May 1st, the S&P 500 closed at 1405. So, if you did get out in May, you’re doing O.K. Of course, the theory looks at the worst and best six months of the market, and based upon that you would avoid the market volatility in September and October. September is historically the worst month for stocks. The Dow Industrial Average has declined 1.4 percent on average in September since 1929. Taking a broader look at the market, September is by far the worst month for the S&P 500. It has posted an average decline of 1.3 percent since 1929. Over that period, it’s the only month to drop more than 50 percent of the time. Of course, there are no guarantees in the stock market; might go up, might go down; but I think it’s a safe bet that the lazy, hazy days of summer will give way to more volume and more volatility and it could start …

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