Financial Review

Nobody Knows Normalization

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-12-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-12-2016   DOW + 313 = 15,973 SPX + 35 = 1864 NAS + 70 = 4337 10 Y + .10 = 1.75% OIL + 2.77 = 28.98 GOLD – 9.40 = 1238.00 The Nikkei Stock Average finished down 11% for the week, its biggest weekly percentage drop since October 2008. For the day, the index ended off 4.8% at 14,952, the lowest since October 2014. The Nikkei is down 21% year-to-date. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held a meeting with his top financial diplomat today, as well as the BOJ’s governor, following a report that the “architect of Abenomics” called for a Group of 20-wide response to the recent market rout. Friday’s high-level gathering came as the country’s stock markets plunged again and the yen hit highs not seen since October 2014. Speculation is also rampant that Tokyo could conduct yen-selling intervention.     The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland Chinese companies trading in Hong Kong fell 2% Friday and was off 6.8% for the week. Trading was halted on the Kosdaq, the smaller cap, tech focused exchange in South Korea as the index dropped by more than 8%.     Here in the US, we’re not quite in bear territory for the major indices: the Nasdaq dropped 18% from last summer’s high; the S&P 500 dropped 15% from last year’s high.     And then …

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Financial Review

Times Change

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-30-2015   DOW + 235 = 16,284 SPX + 35 = 1920 NAS + 102 = 4620 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.06% OIL – .14 = 45.09 GOLD – 12.40 = 1116.30 SILV – .13 = 14.62   This is the last trading day of the third quarter. China’s main stock market posted its worst quarter since 2008 and its smaller Shenzhen index, posted its worst quarter in at least two decades. Markets in Singapore and Indonesia are set to post their worst quarters since the financial crisis. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index fell 19.1% from the beginning of the quarter. The Nikkei closed out its worst quarter since 2010 and the ASX its worst since 2011.   European stocks moved higher today, but not enough to recover from the worst quarter in 4 years. The Stoxx Europe 600 index is down about 9.5% for the quarter. Germany’s DAX index down 12% for the quarter. France’s CAC index posted a quarterly loss of 7.3%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 down 7.7%. The Eurozone is back in deflation. Consumer prices slipped 0.1% year-over-year in September.   The major U.S. averages had a rough third quarter. Concerns about spillover from slowdown in China and the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike sent markets into correction territory, or more than 10 percent below their 52-week highs, in late August. …

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Financial Review

Canoe Trips on Mars

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-28-2015   DOW – 312 = 16,001 SPX – 49 = 1881 NAS – 142 = 4543 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.09% OIL – .03 = 44.40 GOLD – 14.20 = 1133.10 SILV – .53 = 14.70   Well, this was just ugly. All three major indices traded in correction territory today or more than 10 percent below their 52-week highs. For the Nasdaq Composite, the 50 day moving average crossed the 200 day moving average, forming a pattern that goes by the catchy name “death cross”. The Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF closed down 6.3%, following a 5% drop on Friday.   Shares in mining and trading company Glencore fell almost 30 percent and closed at a record low, wiping out more than $5 billion in market valuation. The fall followed publication of a note by analysts at investment bank Investec which raised doubts about Glencore’s valuation if spot metal prices do not improve. The note pointed to high debt levels and a need for deeper restructuring. The analysts wrote: “If major commodity prices remain at current levels, our analysis implies that, in the absence of substantial restructuring, nearly all the equity value of both Glencore and Anglo American could evaporate.” Glencore, a Swiss based company, has said it will suspend dividends, sell assets and raise cash with a $2.5 billion share placement, among other measures, to cut its …

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Financial Review

To Hike or Not To Hike

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-11-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-11-2015   DOW + 102 = 16,433 SPX + 8 = 1961 NAS + 26 = 4822 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.18% OIL – 1.12 = 44.80 GOLD – 3.70 – 1108.20 SILV – .13 = 14.68   The S&P 500 index was up 2.1% for the week, the best weekly gains since July.  The Dow was up 2.1% for the week, and the Nasdaq gained 3%.   The Senate has blocked an anti-Iran deal resolution. Senate Democrats successfully fended off an effort by the Republican-led Congress to dismantle the Iran deal with a disapproval resolution. While the Senate killing the resolution should mean that Congress’s bid to undo the deal is over, the House is fighting on with several bills aimed at expressing their disapproval. There’s even talk of filing lawsuits against the president.   Russia is calling for Washington to restart direct military-to-military cooperation to avert “unintended incidents” near Syria, at a time when U.S. officials say Moscow is building up forces to protect President Bashar al-Assad’s government. The U.S. is leading a campaign of air strikes against ISIS fighters in Syrian air space, and a greater Russian presence would raise the prospect of the Cold War superpower foes encountering each other on the battlefield. Both Moscow and Washington say their enemy is ISIS, but Russia supports the government of Assad, while the U.S. …

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Financial Review

Timing is………..Everything

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-10-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 54 = 17, 068 SPX + 7 = 1995 NAS + 34 = 4586 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.53% OIL – 1.13 = 91.67 GOLD – 6.80 = 1250.00 SILV – .12 = 19.04 Later today, at 6PM local time or 9PM eastern, President Obama will address the nation and lay out his strategy to degrade and destroy the Islamic State insurgency operating in Iraq and Syria. This will likely involve significant escalation of the US military role in the area, but we aren’t sure about the intervention in Syria; probably a combination of airstrikes, and support for more moderate Syrian forces willing to carry out attacks on both ISIS and Assad; along with regional allies providing on the ground support. The president has pledged there will not be boots on the ground. He said: “This is not the equivalent of the Iraq war. What this is similar to is the kinds of counter-terrorism campaigns that we’ve been engaging in consistently over the last five, six, seven years.” Which sounds like a distinction without a difference. Earlier today an administration spokesman said: “The president will discuss how we are building a coalition of allies and partners in the region and in the broader international community to support our efforts, and will talk about how we work with the Congress as a partner in these efforts.” That doesn’t mean …

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Financial Review

A Few Old Sayings

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-26-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08262014 DOW + 29 = 17,106 SPX + 2 = 2000.02 (record) NAS + 13 = 4570 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.40% OIL + .55 = 93.90 GOLD – .70 = 1280.90 SILV – .08 = 19.38 The S&P 500 notched its 30th record of the year and closed above 2000 for the first time ever. The Dow also rose but fell short of its record closing high after setting an all-time intraday high earlier in the session. There are a few old sayings about the market that seem to fit. The first is, “the trend is you friend”; we have seen a few minor pullbacks since the bottom in 2009, but since the start of 2013 there has been a strong and steady uptrend. “A trend in place is more likely to continue than it is to reverse, until it reverses” and today marked a continuation of the trend, not a reversal. Why is the market going up? Who knows? There are plenty of problems around the world. The US economy looks sluggish, but “stocks climb a wall of worry to march into bullish territory”; that’s a phrase that’s been thrown around for more than 60 years, but was made popular by Joe Granville in the 1980s. Another financial proverb claims “Worry is interest paid on trouble before it falls due.” And the opposite of the “wall of worry” is “Bear …

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Friday, September 27, 2013 – Swords to Plowshares

Swords to Plowshares by Sinclair Noe DOW – 70 = 15,258SPX – 6 = 1691 NAS – 5 = 3781 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.62%OIL – .16 = 102.87GOLD + 12.40 = 1337.20SILV + .05 = 21.88 The war hasn’t started,… yet. And it looks like it won’t start any time soon; I refer, of course to US military intervention in Syria; the Syrian Civil War is ongoing, but the US didn’t jump into that quagmire. A funny thing happened in New York last night, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council have agreed on a resolution that will require Syria to give up its chemical weapons; yes, that means Russia and China signed off on the deal, but there will be no automatic penalties if the Syrians fail to comply. If Syria fails to comply, there would need to be further UN agreement on what measures to impose for noncompliance. Still, it is a remarkable turn of events considering that a few short weeks ago we had destroyers in the Mediterranean and it looked like bombs would fly at the drop of a hat. The diplomatic breakthrough on Syria came as Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Zarif, said progress had been made toward a resolution of the nuclear dispute between his country and the West, suggesting it could happen in a year. Zarif met face to face with Secretary of State John Kerry in one of the highest-level discussions between the two countries in more …

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Friday, September 13, 2013 – Five Years After

Five Years After by Sinclair Noe DOW + 75 = 15,376SPX + 4 = 1687NAS + 6 = 372210 YR YLD – .02 = 2.88%OIL – .39 = 108.21GOLD + 6.90 = 1328.90SILV + .53 = 22.37 The war hasn’t started…, yet. That’s good. Peace talks continued in Geneva today. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, and somehow at the peace table was Henry Kissinger, or maybe that was just an apparition; the ghost of Salvador Allende; nope, it was Henry. Anyway, no cruise missiles flying, no poison gas bombs exploding. It’s a good day. The road to peace is full of potholes, and one of the biggest obstacles is the time to round up the poison gas in Syria and get rid of it, against the backdrop of a fast moving kaleidoscope of warring factions. Even in a tranquil setting, the disposal of poison gas is apparently a momentous task, but Assad has signed the Chemical Weapons Convention treaty to get rid of the poison gas. When the convention came into force in 1997, participating countries agreed to destroy their stockpiles within 10 years, with an option to apply for a five-year extension. Five countries – the US, Russia, South Korea, India and Albania – all missed the main 2007 deadline. Two years ago, the United States, Russia and Libya were granted further extensions to a previously agreed final deadline for destroying their weapons. There is probably some gas in Libya that isn’t fully …

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Thursday, September 12, 2013 – Going Interstellar

Going Interstellar by Sinclair Noe DOW – 25 = 15,300SPX – 5 = 1683NAS – 9 = 371510 YR YLD – .01 = 2.91%OIL + .02 = 108.62GOLD – 44.80 = 1322.00 SILV– 1.48 = 21.84 The war hasn’t started…, yet. The peace talks are underway in Geneva between Secretary of State Kerry and his Russian counterpart Lavrov. In a news conference ahead of the Geneva talks, Foreign Minister Lavrov said the resolution of the chemical weapons issue in Syria would make any military strike by the United States unnecessary. The UN has confirmed it has received documents from Syria on joining the Chemical Weapons Convention, a key step in the Russian plan. Syria’s president said it would submit arms data one month after signing, but Mr Kerry has rejected that time-frame. Even before the talks, Russian President Vlad Putin weighed in with an op-ed in the New York Times arguing that a military strike risked “spreading the conflict far beyond Syria’s borders” and would violate international law, undermining postwar stability. Putin says poison gas was used in Syria but not by Assad; he also didn’t say who sold the poison gas to Syria; he talks about peace and democracy; and he finishes the editorial by saying “We are all different, but when we ask for the Lord’s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal.” It’s all quite bizarre, to have Putin lecturing the US on democracy and morality and God. The good news is that the …

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Wednesday, September 11, 2013 – Twelve Years After

Twelve Years After by Sinclair Noe DOW + 135 = 15,326SPX + 5 = 1689NAS – 4 = 372510 YR YLD – .04 = 2.92%OIL – .08 = 107.31GOLD + 2.50 = 1366.80SILV + .25 = 23.32 The war hasn’t started…, yet. The war with Syria hasn’t started yet. We’re still at war; troops still in Afghanistan, slowly exiting; but, we’re still at war, 12 years after. The Dow Industrials have climbed for 6 out of the last 7 sessions, which coincides with the announcement by Obama to seek a Congressional vote on Syria. The Dow has added over 500 points since then. The price of oil hit highs for the year in the buildup to war. We’ve grown averse to war. Even on Wall Street, the idea of not going to war is a good thing. Maybe that is something we’ve learned from the last 12 years. War is bad; not going to war is good. And so last night we listened to the president trying to sell the necessity of more war, this time in Syria. He called it military intervention, but whenever you drop bombs on another country, it is war. I’m still not sure what the objective would be. I’m not sure what the cost would be, but the cost of the past 12 years has been much higher than anyone thought at the time. And then, halfway through the speech last night, we heard the possibility of a diplomatic solution. Today, diplomatic efforts intensified. France …

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