Friday, February 28, 2014 – Tantrums

Tantrums by Sinclair Noe DOW + 49 = 16,321SPX + 5 = 1859 NAS – 10 = 430810 YR YLD + .02 = 2.66%OIL + .05 = 102.45GOLD – 5.10 = 1327.70SILV – .06 = 21.30 Broadcasting from the Renaissance Esmerelda in Indian Wells for Financial Fest Palm Springs edition.   Remember last summer when various Fed officials floated the taper balloon? The hinted that the Fed might taper from $85 billion a month in QE asset purchases. The result: Wall Street had a taper tantrum; the yield on the 10 year note spiked up to 3%; mortgage rates shot up and made many question the strength of the housing recovery; stocks swooned as the froth escaped the market. The tantrum didn’t last long, even when the Fed announced the actual taper. Markets treated the announcement with a yawn. Stocks resumed their climb to record highs; Treasuries settled down; the housing market, well that’s always a local story, so it depends; and the economy continued to muddle. The markets seemed to accept the idea that the economy could handle a little less Fed stimulus, after all, they gave forward guidance that interest rates would remain low until the cows come home. In retrospect, last summer’s taper tantrum seems nothing more than a blip. Not so fast. A new paper released today before the Monetary Policy Forum in New York argues that the tantrum might portend a negative response as taper continues and as the Fed moves closer to someday raising …