Financial Review

Preview

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-06-2015   DOW – 120 = 17,419 SPX – 16 = 2083 NAS – 83 = 5056 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.23% OIL – .31 = 44.84 GOLD + 5.00 = 1090.50 SILV + .06 = 14.76   Jobless claims rose by 3,000 to 270,000 in the week ended August 1. Firings are at historically low levels as employers hold on to more workers. More hiring would help convince Federal Reserve policy makers that the economy can withstand an increase in the benchmark interest rate this year. Claims have remained below the 300,000 level since March.   Outplacement consult Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports employers announced 105,696 layoffs last month. A year ago, U.S. companies announced plans to cut 46,887 jobs. The Army accounted for more than half of the total with 57,000 cuts expected over the next two years. The technology sector also contributed to July’s announced job reductions, with computer and electronics companies announcing 18,891 layoffs in July.   Tomorrow is the big monthly jobs report; and it probably represents the most important data the Fed will consider before the September 17 FOMC meeting. And the Fed will need to communicate any action beforehand to avoid disruption in the financial markets. We may be seeing a rate hike being priced in right now. The major averages came off session lows in the close. The …

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Author Interviews

Ashlee Vance

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/ASHLEE_VANCE_07-31-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 19:48 — 9.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSSinclair Noe audio interview with Ashlee Vance, author of “Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future”

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Financial Review

The Last Century of Fossil Fuels

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 82 = 17,766 SPX – 13 = 2079 NAS – 46 = 5021 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.38% OIL + .14 = 58.28 GOLD + 1.40 = 1174.70 SILV – .17 = 16.06   The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed out 2014 at 2,058, and since then it has been trading in a fairly tight range, from about 2050 to 2130. It’s been 3 1/2 years since the broad stock market suffered a 10% drop. At some point the market will either break out or breakdown, but we didn’t see any real indications today. Even though the major market indices have hit record highs this year, the Dow, with today’s loss, is in negative territory year to date.   In contrast, international markets have been anything but boring. Germany’s DAX entered correction territory, down 10%, as European stocks declined on continuation of Greek debt negotiations. And Wednesday could be a very interesting day for Chinese stock exchanges, where the Shenzen has been on a run; up 50% year to date. Index provider MSCI will announce tomorrow whether to include China’s domestic markets in its widely followed emerging-market and global indexes. Rival index provider FTSE Group has already inaugurated transitional indexes for emerging markets to include Chinese A-shares, while S&P Dow Jones Indices said it would likely add the shares to its indexes in September. The new step …

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Financial Review

Assume They Are Still Listening

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-07-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 82 = 17,924 SPX + 7 = 2088 NAS + 25 = 4945 10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.18% OIL – 1.95 = 58.98 GOLD – 7.00 = 1185.20 SILV – .19 = 16.40   Britons voted today in one of the tightest elections in decades. Final opinion polls showed Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservatives and Ed Miliband’s opposition Labour Party almost in a dead heat, indicating neither will win enough seats for an outright majority in the 650-seat parliament. Exit polls indicate a victory for the Conservatives but not enough for a majority, so talks will begin tomorrow with smaller parties to strike deals.   And those smaller parties could have a big influence on major decisions. The U.K. Independence Party is on track to become the country’s third largest political party. Its key goal is putting Britain’s EU membership up for an in-or-out referendum, sooner rather than later. UKIP is expected to prop up a Conservative government in exchange for an EU vote. For the financial markets, this is the No. 1 worry.  The Scottish National Party looks set for big gains in Scotland, which it wants to see split off from the rest of the U.K.   So, in addition to worrying about a possible Greek exit from the Euro-union, we now are supposed to be concerned with a British exit, and the whole thing is putting pressure …

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Financial Review

May Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 183 = 18,024 SPX + 22 = 2108 NAS + 63 = 5005 10 YR YLD + .07 = 2.11% OIL – .29 = 59.34   For the week, the Dow dropped 0.3%, the S&P 500 fell 0.4% and the Nasdaq was down 1.7%. May kicks off what has been the worst six months for stocks historically which has brought rise to the old saying “sell in May and go away.” Sometimes it works but no guarantees.   The Detroit 3 automakers reported solid April sales as new models and cheap loans lured even more buyers into what’s already a brisk-moving new-vehicle market. Fiat Chrysler reported sales jumped 6% in April, GM gained 5.9% and Ford rose 5%. Still, their stocks were mixed. Ford and GM were higher, Fiat Chrysler was down.   Merchants displeased with the high fees American Express charges them are permitted to steer customers toward less expensive cards without fearing retaliation from the credit card company. A Judge in Brooklyn federal court has ruled that American Express is not allowed to stop stores from offering discounts, rebates or other incentives for using lower-fee cards – an activity known as steering.    Construction spending fell in March to a six-month low as outlays on private residential construction spending declined sharply. Construction spending slipped 0.6 percent to an annual rate of $966 billion, the lowest level since …

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Financial Review

Month End Review

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 195 = 17,840 SPX – 21 = 2085 NAS – 82 = 4941 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.05% OIL + 1.19 = 59.77 GOLD – 20.60 = 1185.00 SILV – .44 = 16.20   For the month, the Dow was up 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 gained 0.9 percent and the Nasdaq rose 0.8 percent. For the month of April, the dollar index fell about 3.7 percent. Some month end portfolio buying pushed yields on ten year notes to 2.05% after hitting a 7 week high of 2.11% earlier in the session. The big mover in April was in the energy market, where crude oil jumped more than 21%. S&P 500 earnings for the first quarter now are forecast to have increased 1.1 percent from a year ago, Thomson Reuters data showed, while revenue is forecast to be down 3.2 percent.   The Commerce Department reports consumer spending rose 0.4% in March as households stepped up purchases of big-ticket items like automobiles; that follows a 0.2% gain in February. The savings rate fell for the first time in four months to 5.3% from 5.7%. A year earlier, Americans were saving at a 4.8% rate. Consumer spending rose 1.9% in the first quarter, down from 4.4% and 3.2% in the prior two quarters. That might indicate there is pent-up demand, but a rebound in economic activity could be …

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Financial Review

Times Change

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 117 = 17,959 SPX – 10 = 2089 NAS + 9 = 4992 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.97% OIL – .81 = 43.85 GOLD + 4.10 = 1172.00 SILV+ .22 = 16.21   The Federal Reserve wrapped up a two-day FOMC meeting yesterday; and the stock market responded with a rally; the dollar dropped initially. After a day of consideration, stocks slipped and the dollar clawed back gains.  Oil prices rose yesterday and dropped again today. You could make the case that the Fed has maintained an overly accommodative monetary policy for too long, or you could argue that the economy will take a hit if the Fed hikes interest rates too soon. The Fed removed its pledge to be patient in tightening policy, while also cutting its forecast for the economy. Go figure.   Initial jobless claims edged up by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 291,000 in the period stretching from March 8 to March 14.  New claims have tracked below 300,000 for the second straight week after spiking to a 10-month high of 325,000 at the end of February in what now appears to have been weather-related quirk.   The Commerce Department said the current account gap, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments into and out of the country, increased to $113 billion from a $98 billion deficit in the third …

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Financial Review

What Happens When We Run Dry

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:19 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 228 = 17,977 SPX + 27 = 2081 NAS + 57 = 4929 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.10% OIL – 1.12 = 43.88 GOLD – 4.30 = 1155.30 SILV – .01 = 15.73   Halfway through March, the S&P 500 is almost exactly flat year to date after a January tumble and February recovery, as we head into a Federal Reserve FOMC policy meeting later this week. Halfway through March a year ago, that was exactly the same situation: US stocks flat for the year directly ahead of the March Fed meeting, when the Fed’s intent to slowly tighten up policy was affirmed. It is widely expected that Fed policy setters will remove the word “patient” from their statement, opening the door for a rate increase in June.   The Fed has kept its benchmark lending rate near zero for more than six years, underpinning a strong rally in stocks. Wall Street loves to feed at the zero interest rate trough. Wall Street has a history of whining about tighter monetary policy; remember the “taper tantrum”, and so today’s gains feel like a sucker’s rally. Or the Fed could surprise us and they could very well remain patient. Crude fell for a fifth day, dropping to its lowest intraday price since March 2009. Crude oil closed $43.88 a barrel, closely following the IEA’s prediction on Friday that …

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Financial Review

How Low Did We Go

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 138 = 17,995 SPX +8 = 2079 NAS + 15 = 4942 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.20% OIL – 26 = 50.00 GOLD – 1.80 = 1167.90 SILV – .20 = 15.83   “How Low Can Stocks Go?” That was the headline in the Wall Street Journal 6 years ago. The Dow was still slogging through 4 straight weeks of losses to close at 6547. The S&P 500 was at a 12 year low of 676. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 1268.   Not many people called it at the time. A few did. John Bogle called it 2 weeks early. Barack Obama called it 5 days early. Mark Haines called it one day late. Of course, after all four tires go flat you might not make the prediction that there will be a fifth flat tire. Nobody was really confident about a bottom until about the end of the year. The current bull market is the fourth-longest on record; it’s also the fourth strongest. When will the bull market end? No idea. I could call the end of the bull market every day, and one day I would be right but that would be a waste off time for all of us.   For now, we have a nice bounce from the sell-off on Friday. Friday we learned the economy added 295,000 jobs last month …

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Financial Review

Upside-Down World

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 110 = 17,972 SPX + 19 = 2088 NAS + 56 = 4857 10 YR YLD un 1.98% OIL + 2.28 = 51.12   A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is scheduled to start February 15, which apparently means that Putin’s little green men still have 2 days to grab as much land as they can. The agreement follows a 17 hour, four-way meeting between Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany in Minsk. The new deal revived a failed September ceasefire agreement, with commitments from each side to pull back heavy weapons, as well as greater autonomy for separatist regions in eastern Ukraine. IMF chief Christine Lagarde also announced today that Ukraine will receive about $40B in funding over the next four years.   Along with the new cease-fire agreement, that won’t actually end the fighting; there was a non-agreement agreement between Eurozone finance ministers to put off decisions on Greece’s bailout terms until next week. Greek officials were unable to reach a deal over its bailout program yesterday, but will return to Brussels on Monday to try to end the deadlock.   Meanwhile, Sweden’s central bank cut its main interest rate into negative territory and announced a bond-buying program this morning. Sweden now joins Denmark and Switzerland and the European Central Bank in negative rate land. So, now, if you want to make a deposit in Sweden, you have …

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