Financial Review

Consistency

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-12-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…About face on Syria. About face on TPP. The Fed and inflation. Banks kick off earnings season. Delta, Blackrock deliver. Bed, Bath & Beyond Bad. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-12-2018

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Tariffs

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-08-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:55 — 7.4MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Tariffs signed – 25% steel, 10% aluminum – Canada & Mexico get a reprieve. TPP signed – minus US. Cigna buying Express Scripts. Tomorrow is 9-year anniversary of market bottom – tech has been the leader in the bull market. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-08-2018

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Minutes. Poof.

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-21-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:45 — 7.3MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Stocks drop after FOMC minutes. 10-year note closes in on 3%. Home sales drop – no inventory. Small biz optimistic. No change in take home pay. ECB tomorrow. Apple hunting cobalt. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-21-2018

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Sun Tariff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-23-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Dow slips slightly – elsewhere, more record highs. Netflix boffo. J&J and P&G slip. Disney bonus. Kimberley Clark layoffs. Oxfam: inequality grows. Trump to Davos. Tariffs on solar and dishwashers. TPP a go. 3X FANG ETNs. Apple HomePod late to the show. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-23-2018

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Let’s All Go to the Movies

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-24-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..S&P and Nasdaq hit records. TPP dead. Keystone and DAP revived. Breakfast with Big 3. South China Sea simmers. UK loses Article 50 case. Aetna-Humana and a big threat. Earnings season in full bloom (or bust, depending.) Home resales dry up in December. It’s a La La Land world we live in. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-24-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Year of the Rooster

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-23-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..TPP axed. Baseline 25 million jobs and 4% GDP. Emoluments matter. Foxconn TVs in USA. Kroger to add jobs. IBM to add jobs – after firing workers. Yahoo under SEC investigation. McDonald’s post-breakfast come down. Halliburton reports mixed earnings. OPEC cuts as expected. Everett Washington sues Purdue Pharma for OxyContin epidemic. United grounded. Hong Kong most expensive. South Korea most innovative. Happy Year of the Rooster. Tax season starts. Have a cookie. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-23-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

19,000

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-22-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow, S&P, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 hit record highs again; passing milestones along the way. Trump policy goals; the trend is in place but the details are fuzzy. Existing home sales surge. Japan quakes again. Amazon goes live. VW goes electric. Turkey dips. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-22-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Transitioning

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-10-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow hits a record high close. Treasuries flop. Trump and Obama meet for transition. A few protests. TPP is dead. Obamacare is almost dead. Aetna is shocked. Pfizer spinoff. Conoco selling oil. We should all be TubeMoguls. Goldman calls the moving van. Sarao spoofs his way to jail. Shake Shack shines. Taser shocks (in a good way). Mylan whiffs. Oil glut continues. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-10-2016.

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Crash

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 261 = 17,515 SPX – 34 = 2046 NAS – 87 = 4909 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.20% OIL – .68 = 51.65 GOLD + 3.00 = 1159.00 SILV + .08 = 15.22   The stock market crashed today. Before you accuse me of over exaggerating, I do not consider a 261 point drop on the Dow to be a crash; that’s just a down day, with a dollop of ugly. No, I mean the actual New York Stock Exchange crashed. The computers malfunctioned. Trading stopped for 3.5 hours. Open orders were cancelled. Other orders were re-routed. This was an actual technical crash. It started with a few squirrelly trades in the morning, and at 11:32 AM, the New York Stock Exchange surrendered, halted trading, and tried to reboot the computers.   And for the most part, it did not stop trading in NYSE listed stocks. The other exchanges picked up the trades. First, the Nasdaq did not crash; next the BATS system just re-routed trades, ARCA picked up more trades, and the Philly exchange handled some trades as well. So, in many ways, it was a typical trading day. The New York Stock Exchange is really more of a TV studio these days than a central force behind buy and sell orders. CNBC broadcasts there; tourists gawk; all the trades are electronic, in a …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Dignity

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 56= 17,946 SPX – 0.82 = 2101 NAS – 31 = 5080 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.48% OIL – .07 = 59.63 GOLD + 1.30 = 1175.20 SILV – .09 = 15.85   For the week, both the Dow and S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent while the Nasdaq fell 0.7 percent. Nike rose 4.3 percent to $109.71 and was the biggest boost to the Dow after reporting a better-than-expected quarterly profit, lifted as it sold more high-margin shoes and apparel at higher prices.   Micron Technology sank 18 percent to $19.66 a day after forecasting a further decline in prices of chips used in personal computers. It also gave a revenue outlook for the current quarter that was well below market estimates. The PHLX Semiconductor index (SOX) fell 2.4 percent.   The Supreme Court has ruled that same sex couples have a constitutional right to marry nationwide. Voting 5-4, the justices said states lack any legitimate reason to deprive gay couples of the freedom to marry. The ruling in support of marriage equality was widely expected, given the Supreme Court’s previous ruling on the issue. In June 2014, the Supreme Court overturned the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, opening up federal benefits to same-sex married couples. It heard two cases: Hollingsworth v. Perry, the successful challenge to California’s Proposition 8 measure, a 2008 ballot initiative that …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Sorry McFly

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 178 = 17,966 SPX – 15 = 2108 NAS – 37 = 5122 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.37% OIL – .74 = 60.27 GOLD – 3.00 = 1179.00 SILV + .04 = 15.98   The American economy shrank in the first quarter by a smaller amount than previously reported. Gross domestic product declined by 0.2% annual rate from January to March. Previously the Commerce Department had estimated a seasonally adjusted 0.7% drop. This is the third and final revision to first quarter GDP; so this final estimate, while still negative, isn’t as bad as we thought.  Household spending was revised up to 2.1% from 1.8%. Consumers spent more at restaurants and on transportation.  Private sector investment also rose a bit more, up 2.4% vs. a prior 0.7% estimate; and digging deeper, most of the move in private investment came from residential investment – up 6.5% in the final reading. Now this indicates signs of life in the housing market, but we still aren’t seeing enough in the way of business investment. Companies seem to have piles of cash and all they do is buy back their own stock.   Inflation as measured by the PCE price index fell at a 2% annual rate. The core rate that excludes food and energy was up 0.8% in the same span, well below the Federal Reserve’s preferred rate …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

A Spidey Monday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 103 = 18,119 SPX + 12 = 2122 NAS + 36 = 5153 10 YR YLD + 9 = 2.36% OIL + .07 = 59.68 GOLD – 14.40 = 1186.90 SILV + .09 = 16.27   The Nasdaq Composite set a new closing and intraday record, topping the highs set on Thursday. The Russell 2000 gained 7 to close at 1292, a record high. The S&P 500 is a stone’s throw from record highs at 2130. Eurozone leaders are held an emergency summit today to “urgently discuss the situation of Greece at the highest political level.” The summit comes just eight days before Athens needs to make a crucial €1.6-billion-euro payment to the IMF. Over the weekend, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras submitted a new reforms package to foreign creditors, signaling eleventh-hour concessions to avoid a possible default. The Greek government said its proposals included steps to eliminate early retirement options, hike the sales tax, increase tax surcharges that middle- and high-income earners pay and to introduce a levy on companies with annual net income of more than about $570,000.   Eurozone finance ministers welcomed the Greek proposals for a cash-for-reform deal but said they required detailed study and it would take several days to determine whether they can lead to an agreement to avert a default. The ministers agreed to reconvene later this week. And even if there …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

A Tight Range

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-21-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 0.34 = 18,285 SPX + 4 = 2130.82 NAS + 19 = 5090 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.18% OIL + 1.71 = 60.69 GOLD – 3.00 = 1207.80 SILV + .05 = 17.23   The S&P 500 closed at a record high today.   We had a slew of economic data this morning. The leading economic index rose 0.7% in April, indicating the US economy is still expanding.   Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 274,000 for the week ended May 16. Despite last week’s increase, claims remained below 300,000, a threshold associated with a strengthening labor market, for an 11th straight week. The four-week average for jobless claims decreased to 266,250, a 15-year low.   The National Association of Realtors reports sales of existing homes fell 3.3% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million. April’s sales pace was up 6.1% from a year earlier. The median sales price of used homes hit $219,400 in April, up 8.9% from the year-earlier period.   The jobless claims and existing home sales are pretty important because they are strong indicators for second quarter growth. We know the Fed is watching the labor market. It would be very difficult for the Fed to hike rates if the labor market starts showing signs of weakness. The housing data is …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Magnitude of Falsity is Enormous

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 36 = 18,068 SPX – 6 = 2099 NAS – 17 = 4976 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.25% OIL + 1.50 = 60.75 GOLD + 9.50 = 1194.00 SILV + .21 = 16.58   The Treasury market continued to sell-off this  morning, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury up to 2.35% intraday, the highest point since Nov. 21. The selling eased by the afternoon, sending the yield down to 2.25 percent. The intense selling in the Treasury market was fueled by a similar meltdown in the Eurozone’s government bond market which has been going on for more than two weeks. Germany’s 10-year bund yield is 14 times higher than a month ago.  The yield on the 10-year benchmark German bond known as the bund increased 12 basis points to 0.71% intraday and European peripherals, such as Spain, Italy and Portugal, also saw their yields jump between 10 and 13 basis points.   At a panel discussion in Zurich this morning, NY Fed President William Dudley outlined that he does not know when interest rates will rise but repeated recent comments that the policy tightening will depend on the US economy. In other words, the Fed won’t send out engraved invitations and you will need to stay alert but the markets shouldn’t be surprised when the Fed raises rates. Dudley said the conditions that will determine …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Thursday, November 14, 2013 – These are the Days of Milk and Cookies or, If You Prefer, Wine and Neurosis

These are the Days of Milk and Cookies or, If You Prefer, Wine and Neurosis by Sinclair Noe DOW + 54 = 15,876SPX + 8 = 1790NAS + 7 = 397210 YR YLD – .03 = 2.69%OIL + .08 = 93.96GOLD + 5.00 = 1288.30SILV + .13 = 20.85 More record highs for the Dow and the S&P 500. Celebrate with your beverage of choice. You will likely hear a bunch of stupidity with regard to Janet Yellen as she works her way through the confirmation process. Today, she delivered prepared remarks to a Senate Committee. She did not surprise and she did not disappoint. Yellen is dovish; we knew that. She believes in monetary stimulus; we knew that. She believes in regulations to prevent a repeat of past mistakes; we knew that. She is probably the most qualified Fed Chair nominee ever. A little bit of background: Economics degree from Brown University; Phd. From Yale; taught at Harvard, the London School of Economics, and UC Berkeley; Fed Governor from 1994 to 97; San Francisco Fed president in 2004; vice chair of the Fed since 2010; a member of multiple economic councils and committees, including the Council of Economic Advisors, CBO, MIT, etc, etc; married to Nobel Prize winning economist George Akerlof, considered more accurate than her Fed peers in foreseeing the housing crisis and the financial downturn. Indeed, Yellen was “one of the only top Fed policy makers who warned about the housing bubble before the crisis.” – (NYTimes) …

READ MORE →