Financial Review

Not Fixed Yet

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-05-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-05-2016   DOW – 211 = 16204 SPX – 35 = 1880 NAS – 146 = 4363 10 Y – .02 = 1.85% OIL – .73 = 30.99 GOLD + 18.40 = 1174.50   The S&P 500 extended its loss for the week to 3%.  The index is now down more than 8 percent in 2016. The Nasdaq closed at its lowest since October 2014.   Today is a jobs report Friday. If you are a regular listener, you know that I go into quite a bit of detail. The reason is simple. The jobs report is the single most important economic data we can look at each month. So, here are the numbers:   The economy added 151,000 nonfarm jobs in January; that’s below the consensus estimate of 185,000. The unemployment rate dropped from 5% to 4.9%, the lowest reading since 2008; and an indicator the economy is still creating more than enough jobs to keep up with increases in the size of the labor force. The December jobs report was revised down from 292,000 jobs to 262,000. November’s gain was raised to 280,000 from 252,000. In the past three months job growth averaged 231,000 jobs per month. In the past 12 months the economy added 2.67 million jobs. Since the beginning of 2010, the American economy has gained nearly 14 million jobs. Total employment is now 4.9 …

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Financial Review

Labor Day Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-04-2015 DOW – 272 = 16,102 SPX – 29 = 1921 NAS – 49 = 4683 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.13% OIL – .71 = 46.04 GOLD – 2.30 = 1123.70 SILV – .13 = 14.70   This is a Jobs Report Friday, and I tend to get a little wonkish about the monthly jobs reports, mainly because I believe jobs are pretty much the most important part of the economy; we’ve even set aside a holiday to recognize the importance of labor. Today’s report is especially important because it comes right before a Federal Open Market Committee Meeting where the Fed just might raise interest rates.   The US economy added 173,000 jobs in August, and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%. While this was the smallest increase in new jobs since March, the June and July numbers were revised higher by 44,000 jobs. The Labor Department said 245,000 new jobs were created in July instead of 215,000. June’s gain was revised up to 245,000 from 231,000. The 173,000 new jobs missed estimates of 210,000 to 220,000 but the August numbers are notorious for underestimating – only to be revised higher in following months. The unemployment rate of 5.1% is down from July’s 5.3% rate, and beats estimates that the rate would hold steady.   Between 2005 and 2014, August was the month with the …

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Financial Review

Jobs Report Friday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 278 = 17,856 SPX – 29 = 2071 NAS – 55 = 4927 10 YR YLD + .13 = 2.24% OIL – 1.02 = 49.74 The first Friday of the month is all about jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the economy added 295,000 new jobs in February. The unemployment rate dropped from 5.7% to 5.5%. The results topped estimates of 235,000 jobs, and also beats the revised 239,000 reported for January (revised down from 257,000); and also up from 188,000 a year ago.   The estimates were lower, mainly because most of the country has been experiencing harsh winter weather, and on the West Coast there was a shutdown and a slowdown at the ports. None of that seemed to matter, and if you are thinking ahead, you might imagine that the economy will just keep getting stronger as the weather gets better.   Now, you might look at how Wall Street responded to this very good news about jobs and you might be scratching your head, you might even think Wall Street is opposed to honest, hardworking Americans. Well, maybe a little, but the reason for the sell-off is that a stronger economy means higher interest rates. Investors are looking and focusing entirely on what the Federal Reserve will do in the coming months. Effectively good news in this data point supports the notion …

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Uncategorized

Friday, April 04, 2014 – The March Jobs Report

The March Jobs Reportby Sinclair Noe DOW – 159 = 16,412SPX – 23 = 1865NAS – 110 = 4127 (-2.6%)10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.73%OIL + .77 = 101.06GOLD + 15.50 = 1303.30SILV + .14 = 20.06 Today is a jobs report Friday. Let’s get geeky. The Labor Department reported nonfarm payrolls increased by 192,000 jobs last month after rising by 197,000 in February (that’s revised from 175,000). The prior 2 months were revised to show 37,000 more jobs than previously estimated; the revisions indicate that the bad winter weather was not a huge problem for the labor market; it did have an effect but not huge, and we certainly shouldn’t hear any more weather related excuses. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7% as more people were looking for jobs. The consensus estimate was 200,000 jobs, so the figures were a little below expectations. Private employment rose to 116.09 million, finally moving beyond the previous high of 115.98 million recorded at the very start of the recession in January 2008.Total employment is just a little below the pre-financial crisis days; we still have about 437,000 fewer jobs than the peak in 2008, but private employment is now above the peak by 110,000 and at a new all-time high; the difference is that more than a half million government jobs have been cut during that time; also, the population and the labor force has grown over the past 6 years, so the unemployment rate remains fairly high. And the …

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