Financial Review

Jobs Report Friday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 278 = 17,856 SPX – 29 = 2071 NAS – 55 = 4927 10 YR YLD + .13 = 2.24% OIL – 1.02 = 49.74 The first Friday of the month is all about jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the economy added 295,000 new jobs in February. The unemployment rate dropped from 5.7% to 5.5%. The results topped estimates of 235,000 jobs, and also beats the revised 239,000 reported for January (revised down from 257,000); and also up from 188,000 a year ago.   The estimates were lower, mainly because most of the country has been experiencing harsh winter weather, and on the West Coast there was a shutdown and a slowdown at the ports. None of that seemed to matter, and if you are thinking ahead, you might imagine that the economy will just keep getting stronger as the weather gets better.   Now, you might look at how Wall Street responded to this very good news about jobs and you might be scratching your head, you might even think Wall Street is opposed to honest, hardworking Americans. Well, maybe a little, but the reason for the sell-off is that a stronger economy means higher interest rates. Investors are looking and focusing entirely on what the Federal Reserve will do in the coming months. Effectively good news in this data point supports the notion …

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Financial Review

Job Seekers Find Their Place Again

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 60 = 17,824 SPX – 7 = 2055 NAS – 20 = 4744 10 YR YLD + .12 = 1.94% OIL + 1.60 = 52.08 GOLD – 31.20 = 1234.30 SILV – .54 = 16.79   The U.S. added 257,000 new jobs in January. The unemployment rate edged up to 5.7% from 5.6%, but that’s because more people looked for jobs. The January report topped expectations of 230,000 to 245,000 new jobs.   The Labor Force Participation Rate increased 0.2% to 62.9%. The Labor Department’s survey of households, used to derive the unemployment rate, showed about 1.05 million people entered the labor force and 759,000 found work. These numbers also reflect new estimates on the size of the population. Even as the labor-force participation rate rose last month, it’s held to roughly the same level for the past year and a half. The hope is that there is a trend developing of more people looking for work. Consumers believe job prospects have improved. That perception was evident in last week’s confidence report that showed a jump in the number of consumers who think jobs were “plentiful” last month.  Better confidence in job availability should lead to a jump in the number of people quitting. That’s one data series the Fed tracks as a sign of labor-market tightening beyond what the jobless rate says.   The economy has …

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Financial Review

The December Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 170 = 17,737 SPX – 17 = 2044 NAS – 32 = 4704 10 YR YLD – .05 = 1.97% OIL – .54 = 48.25 GOLD + 14.50 = 1224.40 SILV + .14 = 16.62 Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports on total nonfarm payroll employment. The Jobs Report is usually released on the first Friday of each month. Last Friday was still considered part of the holidays, so we got the report this morning. In December the economy added 252,000 net new jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.6% from 5.8%. Job gains from November and October were revised higher by 50,000 additional jobs. November now posted 353,000 jobs, and October revised up to 261,000. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, construction, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing. The economy has now added 200,000 or more jobs each month for the past 11 consecutive months. 2014 was the best year for total employment since 1999, and the best year for private employment since 1997. And for the past 3 months we’ve average 289,000, which is about as good as I can recall. Private-sector employment, which in December clocked in at 118 million, has grown 10.4% from its 2009 low. The nation has gained back all the jobs it lost during the recession, and added some more. The economy …

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Financial Review

Fed Should Avoid Knee Jerk Hikes

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-08-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 106 = 17,852 SPX – 15 = 2060 NAS – 40 = 4740 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.26% OIL – 2.80 = 63.04 GOLD + 11.10 = 1205.20 SILV + .09 = 16.48 No records today. Energy stocks pulled the market lower; 42 of the 43 energy stocks in the S&P 500 posted losses today. Falling oil prices have also hit exchange rates of energy producers, especially in emerging markets. Russia’s ruble continues to slide, and an index tracking 20 key exchange rates has fallen to levels last seen more than a decade ago, down 10.2 percent this year and headed for the biggest annual slide since 2008. While some developing nations may welcome a weaker currency because it makes their exports more competitive, for others the pace of decline is destabilizing their economies by fueling inflation and eroding investor confidence. While the International Monetary Fund expects developing economies to pick up next year, it still sees them falling short of their longer-term growth. The IMF predicts expansion of 4.95 percent across emerging markets in 2015, up from a forecast of 4.43 percent this year and compared with average growth of 6.44 percent over the past decade. Let’s start with a quick recap of Friday’s jobs report. The economy added 321,000 jobs in November, well above estimates, the highest monthly gain since January 2010 and …

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Financial Review

November Jobs Report – Progress Not Perfection

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-05-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:19 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 58 = 17,985 SPX + 3 = 2075 NAS + 11 = 4780 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.31% OIL – 1.12 = 65.69 GOLD – 15.50 = 1192.00 SILV – .20 = 16.39 Record highs for the Dow and the S&P 500. For the past week I’ve been telling you we could see a wild number on the jobs report. We did. The economy added 321,000 net new jobs in November. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.8%. Job gains for September and October were revised higher. September was revised from 256,000 to 271,000, and the change for October was revised from 214,000 to 243,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 44,000 more than previously reported. And that pushes the 3 month average up to about 277,000 jobs per month. November marked the biggest monthly jobs gain since January 2012. So far in 2014 the economy has gained an average of 241,000 jobs a month. This was the tenth consecutive month of job gains greater than 200,000, and an all-time record 50th consecutive month of job gains. Total employment is now 1.7 million above the previous peak. Total employment is up 10.4 million from the employment recession low. So far this year, the United States has added some 2.65 million jobs, putting the country on track for its best year …

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Financial Review

Jobs Report Friday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-07-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS[powerpress Financial Review DOW + 19 = 17,573 SPX + 0.71 = 2031 NAS – 5 = 4632 10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.31% OIL + .60 = 78.51 GOLD + 36.50 = 1178.80 SILV + .32 = 15.85 The economy added 214,000 net new jobs in October. The unemployment rate dropped from 5.9% to 5.8%. The 5.8 percent official unemployment rate is the lowest since the summer of 2008. The August report was revised higher to 203,000 and the September report was revised higher to 256,000; for a net increase of 31,000 jobs added from revisions. Employment is now up 2.64 million year-over-year, and up 2.3 million year to date. So far in 2014 the US has gained an average of 229,000 jobs a month, the fastest pace since 1999. October was the ninth consecutive month of 200,000 or more jobs gained, and that hasn’t happened since 1994. Total employment is up 10 million from the employment recession low and up 1.3 million from the previous peak; although it should be noted that full-time employment has not returned to the previous peak, while part-time employment is quite a bit higher than the peak. Private employment is up 10.6 million from the employment recession low. This latest report represents 56 consecutive months of private-sector job growth, which represents the longest streak in US history, but it isn’t the strongest streak of job growth. …

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Financial Review

September Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-03-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 208 = 17,009 SPX + 21 = 1967 NAS + 45 = 4475 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.44% OIL – 1.31 = 89.70 GOLD – 23.60 = 1191.70 SILV – .24 = 16.96 There is an old saying in the markets, “Sell Rosh Hashana, Buy Yom Kippur”, and when Yom Kippur falls on the first Friday of the month and coincides with a strong monthly jobs report, there is wisdom in the adage. Each month we focus on the jobs report and try to tell you everything you need to know; let’s go. The economy added 248,000 net new jobs in September. The unemployment rate dropped from 6.1% to 5.9%, falling below the 6% level for the first time since July 2008. Most estimates had called for job gains in the range of 210,000 to 220,000. In August the jobs report was far less than expected, coming in at just 142,000 jobs, however, today the August report was revised up to 180,000. And the July number was revised higher from 212,000 to 243,000. So, the two month revisions added a combined 69,000 more jobs than previously reported. The gain in payrolls over the last six months was the strongest for any six-month period since before the 2007-09 recession. Employment is now up 2.63 million year-over-year. The economy has added 2,040,00 jobs year to date. At the current pace, …

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Financial Review

Everything You Need to Know About the Jobs Report

http://SINCLAIR_NOE_-_SEG_1_-_09-05-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review 09-05-2014 DOW + 67 = 17,137 SPX + 10 = 2007.71 (record) NAS + 20 = 4582 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.46% OIL – 1.00 = 93.45 GOLD + 7.50 = 1269.40 SILV + .13 = 19.29 The S&P 500 index closed at a record high; the Dow Industrials closed just short of a record high. The S&P 500 and the Dow recorded their fifth consecutive weekly gains. For the week, the Dow and the S&P each gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq rose 0.06%. Today is a jobs report Friday. In August, the economy added 142,000 net new jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.1%. This was a weaker than expected report. The economy had been averaging more than 200,000 new jobs a month for the past 6 months. Economists expected somewhere around 220,000 to 230,000 new jobs. Employment gains for July and June were lowered by a combined 28,000; June was revised from 298,000 to 267,000, and the change for July was revised from 209,000 to 212,000. The August report will likely be revised as well. Each job report starts with an initial estimate on the first Friday of the month, followed by two revisions. The month of August is prone to sharp revisions; over the past 5 years, the difference between the first and third estimates have averaged more than 70,000 per month; and each of the …

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Financial Review

Friday, June 06, 2014 – Jobs Report Friday

Jobs Report Friday by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 88 = 16,924 SPX + 8 = 1949 NAS + 25 = 4321 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.59% OIL + .31 = 102.79 GOLD – .90 = 1253.30 SILV – .02 = 19.11   Another record high close for the Dow Industrial Average and the S&P 500.   It’s said that it takes a war to end a war; 70 years ago, 150,000 soldiers invaded Normandy, and it’s estimated that about 4,400 lost their lives in the biggest military assault in history, D-Day. There were ceremonies on the beach today, as well as locations around the world, to honor the soldiers lost and the veterans still with us; their numbers are dwindling with the passage of time, but about 3,000 made the pilgrimage to Normandy today.  For the rest of us, it’s hard to imagine what happened 70 years ago, but whatever difficulties we may face in our day to day lives seem small compared with what those men faced. This is a special day, one that should never be forgotten.   Each month we analyze the jobs report. The jobs number came in about as expected. Non-farm payrolls added 217,000 jobs in May. The unemployment rate, which is drawn from a different survey of households, remained unchanged at 6.3%.   April’s employment numbers were revised down to 282,000 jobs added from 288,000. March payroll figures were not revised, remaining at 203,000 jobs added. This is the fourth consecutive …

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Financial Review

Financial Review for Friday, May 02, 2014 – April Jobs Report

April Jobs Report by Sinclair Noe DOW – 45 = 16,512SPX – 2 = 1881NAS – 3 = 412310 YR YLD – .01 = 2.59%OIL + .57 = 99.99GOLD + 15.70 = 1301.60SILV + .44 = 19.56 Today is another Jobs Report Friday. We will go into quite a bit of detail here because really, most everything we talk about in regard to economics begins with work and jobs. It is my hope that you will join us here on the first Friday of each month to get your comprehensive, fact based coverage of the jobs report. Last month the economy added 288,000 net new jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.3%. April marked the biggest monthly gain in jobs since January 2012, when the economy added 360,000 jobs. Employment gains for February and March were revised higher by a combined 36,000; that raised the monthly average to 214,000 jobs a month since the start of the year. Through the first 4 months of 2014, the economy has added 857,000 payroll jobs, slightly better than the first 4 months of 2013, despite the harsh winter this year. In the current 58 month expansion, employers have added more than 200,000 jobs per month in 38% of the months. Current job creation performance is stronger than it was in the business-cycle expansion that occurred during the recovery in the early 2000s, even when a real estate construction bubble fueled growth.  Today’s job creation pace lags well behind previous recent economic recoveries, …

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