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Friday, February 07, 2014 – Jobs Report Friday

Jobs Report Friday By Sinclair Noe DOW + 165 = 15,794SPX + 23 = 1797NAS + 68 = 412510 YR YLD – .03 = 2.67%OIL + 2.21 = 100.05GOLD + 9.30 = 1268.10 SILV + .07 = 20.12 The best 2 days in a row for stocks in almost 4 months. For the week the Dow was up 97 points, and the S&P 500 was up 15 points on the week. The VIX, the volatility index slipped back down to 15, indicating a general happy go lucky outlook for stocks, with just the slightest hint that the past couple of days were part of a short squeeze; especially considering the lousy nature of the unemployment report. This is Jobs Report Friday and I tend to get a bit wonkish with the numbers but I think it is important economic data, so here goes. The Labor Department reported the economy added 113,000 jobs in January while the unemployment rate dropped slightly to 6.6%. The number of jobs added fell short of expectations; analysts had projected job growth of around 185,000. While weather was believed to have weighed on hiring in December, it did not appear to be a major factor last month. There were strong gains in the weather-sensitive construction sector, and while a survey of households found 262,000 Americans were unable to work due to the weather, the department said that was in line with historical trends. This comes on the heels of an even weaker December jobs report. Today’s …

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Friday, January 10, 2014 – Jobs Report Friday

Jobs Report Friday by Sinclair Noe DOW – 7 = 16,437SPX + 4 = 1842NAS + 18 = 417410 YR YLD – .10 = 2.86%OIL + 1.23 = 92.89GOLD + 20.90 = 1248.60SILV + .63 = 20.27 Jobs report Friday. The US economy created only 74,000 net new jobs in December. The number of jobs created was the lowest in 3 years and was well short of expectations for about 195,000 jobs. In the four months before December, the average number of jobs created in the US was 214,000 a month. The Labor Department said 38,000 more jobs in November were created than the 203,000 previously reported. And the unemployment rate dropped from 7% to 6.7%. If that doesn’t seem to add up, you are correct. The headline news that the unemployment rate dropped to 6.7% is not good. The problem is that a bunch of people fell out of the labor force, 347,000, to be exact. They stopped looking for work, which made them no longer “unemployed” in the eyes of the Bureau of Labor Statistics; they just become invisible. The Labor Force Participation Rate dropped from 63% in November to 62.8% in December. This is a measure of the working age population in the labor force. The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% range that had been considered typical over the past 20 to 30 years. The participation rate has been dropping for the past 12 years. Part of the reason for the drop in …

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Friday, December 06, 2013 – The Goldilocks Job Report

The Goldilocks Job Report by Sinclair Noe DOW + 198 = 16,020SPX + 20 = 1805NAS + 29 = 406210 YR YLD – .02 = 2.85%OIL + .27 = 97.65GOLD + 5.60 = 1231.70SILV + .11 = 19.64 Big gains on Wall Street, the best in about a month. The monthly jobs report came out this morning. It was just a little better than expected; nothing earth shattering but decent. The economy generated 203,000 net new jobs. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.0% from 7.3%. The unemployment rate is now at the lowest level since November 2008. So, this was a Goldilocks report, just good enough to indicate some strength but not so strong as to push the Federal Reserve to taper, to cut back on its monthly bond purchase program. Really, the Wall Street traders got the best possible report today. There is still a slight risk of a Fed taper in December, and we’ll talk about that more in a moment. Let’s dig into the numbers. Hiring in November was strong in most industries, including transportation and warehousing, professional occupations, manufacturing, health care, construction and retail. And there was a shift toward more well-paying jobs compared with October. The number of businesspeople and professionals who found work rose by 35,000 to lead the way. It has been the fastest-growing category over the past year. Companies that warehouse and deliver goods, meanwhile, hired 31,000 new workers; some of that gain may be seasonal. Manufacturers added 27,000 jobs, the biggest …

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Friday, November 08, 2013 – Jobs, Jobs, Jobs Friday

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs Friday by Sinclair Noe DOW + 167 = 15,761SPX + 23 = 1770NAS + 61 = 391910 YR YLD + .14 = 2.74%OIL + .13 = 94.33GOLD – 19.10 = 1289.50SILV – .17 = 21.60 Another record high close for the Dow. For the week, the Dow rose 0.9 percent, the S&P 500 was up 0.5 percent while the Nasdaq was down 0.1 percent. Today was all about jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 204,000 in October and the unemployment rate increased from 7.2% to 7.3%. The 204,000 new jobs was much better than the estimates of about 120,000. Further, the numbers from previous months were revised higher; September was revised from 148,000 new jobs to 163,000 new jobs, and August was revised from 193,000 jobs up to 238,000; for a net gain of 60,000 upwardly revised jobs. So, why did the unemployment rate move higher? Part of this may have to do with the government shutdown and there might be a reversal in the November numbers. The furloughed government workers, at least some, were likely counted as unemployed with regard to the unemployment rate, but for the total number, that 204,000 number, those furloughed workers were not counted as unemployed. The problem with the unemployment rate is that the rate can fall even when the labor market conditions get worse. There are two possible reasons why the unemployment rate drops; either more jobless people find work, or more …

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Friday, September 06, 2013 – Fed Policy Creates Inequality

Fed Policy Creates Inequality by Sinclair Noe DOW – 14 = 14,922SPX + .09 = 1655NAS + 1 = 366010 YR YLD – .04 = 2.93%OIL+ 1.86 = 110.23GOLD + 21.10 = 1389.80SILV + .63 = 23.94 The war hasn’t started …, yet. This morning we got the big monthly jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 169,000 jobs last month falling short of the 175,000 to 180,000 Wall Street had expected. Not only did hiring miss expectations last month, but the job count for June and July was revised to show 74,000 fewer positions added than previously reported. While the unemployment rate fell a tenth of a percentage point to 7.3 percent, its lowest level since December 2008, the decline reflected a drop in the share of working-age Americans who either have a job or are looking for one. That participation measure reached its lowest point since August 1978, a further sign of underlying economic weakness. The rate for men touched a record low. U-6, a measure of underemployment that includes people who want a job but who have given up searching and those working part time because they cannot find full-time jobs fell three tenths of a percentage point to a 4-1/2-year low of 13.7 percent. The private sector accounted for the bulk of the job gains last month, but government payrolls increased 17,000 as local governments hired teachers for the new school year. Factory employment rebounded after falling in July. Construction payrolls were flat as both residential and …

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Friday, March 08, 2013 – Jobs Report and Bad Banks

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click here or call 480-820-5877. Jobs Report and Bad Banks DOW + 67 = 14, 397SPX + 6 = 1551NAS + 12 = 324410 YR YLD +.07 = 2.06%OIL + .29 = 91.85GOLD + .60 = 1580.20SILV + .12 = 29.10 The Dow Industrial hit their fourth consecutive record high close. The S&P 500 is within 1% of record highs. The S&P is up for 6 straight days, and 9 out of the past 10 weeks. Year to date, the Dow is up 9.9 percent, while the S&P 500 is up 8.8 percent and the Nasdaq is up about 7.5 percent. The economy added 236,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate fell from 7.9% to 7.7%. The number of jobs gained beat expectations by about 76,000. The unemployment rate is now at its lowest level since December of 2008. Part of the reason for the drop in the unemployment rate is that fewer people are counted as being in the labor pool, looking for a job; this is known as the participation rate and it dropped to 63.5%, matching a 32 year low. Still, this was a much stronger jobs report than we’ve seen in a while. There was improvement, but not enough. We haven’t yet seen the dramatic upswing that leads to a virtuous cycle of growth and truly low unemployment. The report showed …

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