Financial Review

November Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-07-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Economy adds 155,000 jobs in November. Unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%. U6 jumps to 7.6%. slightly weak report but not enough to change Fed. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-07-2018

READ MORE →
Financial Review

October Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-02-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Economy adds 25,000 jobs in October. Unemployment rate holds at 3.7%. Wages grow at 3.1% annualized pace. Green light for Fed rate hike. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-02-2018

READ MORE →
Financial Review

September Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-05-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….134,000 new jobs in September; 3.7% unemployment rate. Wages flat. Variations by geography, race, gender, age, and education. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-05-2018

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Jobs Report Friday – Bounce Back Edition

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-03-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..261,000 new jobs in October, bouncing back from hurricanes. 4.1% unemployment rate. Wages flat, again. Wages and taxes explained. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-03-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

July Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-04-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:01 — 6.9MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow record close, again. Economy adds 209,000 jobs in July. Unemployment rate at 4.3%. Wages up 0.3%. Getting closer to full employment but not yet. Fed on track. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-04-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

June Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-07-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….US adds 222,000 jobs in June. Unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. Wages up 0.2%. U6 at 8.6%. Reasons for flat wage growth. Fed will stay the course. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-07-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

May Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-02-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow, S&P, Nasdaq hit record highs. The economy added 138,000 jobs in May – below expectation. Unemployment rate drops to 4.3% – because people fall from labor market. U6 down to 8.4%. Wages show small gains. Employers lament and the solution. Fed on glide path to raise rates in June.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-02-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

April Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-05-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Economy adds 211,000 jobs last month. Unemployment rate drops to 4.4%. U6 drops to 8.6%. Wages up 2.5% YoY. 79th straight month of job growth. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-05-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

March Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-07-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  …..98,000 jobs added in March – missing expectations. Unemployment rate drops to 4.5%. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-07-2017

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Exasperating November Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-02-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Economy adds 178,000 jobs in November. Unemployment rate drops to 4.6%. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-02-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Decent August Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-02-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSJobs report Friday. The economy added 151,000 job. The unemployment rate holds at 4.9%. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-02-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Jobs Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-01-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS215,000 new jobs in March, the unemployment rate at 5%; a solid, steady jobs report.

READ MORE →
Financial Review

The February Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-04-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-04-2016 DOW + 62 = 17,006 SPX + 6 = 1999 NAS + 9 = 4717 10 Y + .05 = 1.88% OIL + 1.24 = 35.81 GOLD – 4.30 = 1260.60   The US economy added 242,000 new jobs in February, almost 50,000 more than estimates. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%. Employment gains for January and December were revised up by a combined 30,000.   Total employment is now 5.1 million above the previous peak.  Total employment is up 13.8 million from the employment recession low. Private payroll employment increased 230,000 in February, and private employment is now 5.5 million above the previous peak. Private employment is up 14.3 million from the recession low. In February, the year-over-year change was 2.67 million jobs. The private sector has chalked up 72 months of uninterrupted job gains, the longest streak on record. As we look at the different sectors where jobs were created or lost, a theme develops; the sectors involving energy, natural resources, and international trade were hit while the sectors that mainly involve the domestic economy seem to be prospering. The mining sector, which includes oil and gas producers, cut jobs for the 17th straight month amid falling oil prices (down 18,000). After a 23,000 gain in January, manufacturers cut 16,000 jobs – that could be a one-month blip but could also suggest falling demand …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

The Last Jobs Report of 2015

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-08-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-08-2015 DOW – 167 = 16,346 SPX – 21 = 1922 NAS – 45 = 4643 10 Y – .02 = 2.13% OIL – .34 = 32.93 GOLD – 4.60 = 1105.60   The economy added 292,000 new jobs in December, much higher than estimates of 205,000 to 215,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0%. The October and November reports were revised higher to show an additional 50,000 new jobs. In the final three months of 2015, the U.S. added an average of 284,000 jobs. That’s the fastest pace in almost a year. For the past year the economy added 2.7 million jobs. In 2014 the economy added 3.1 million jobs; that’s the best 2 years for job growth since the late 1990s. The economy has added jobs for 70 consecutive months; right at 14 million jobs during that time.  Over the past year the unemployment rate has dropped from 5.7% to the current 5%.   Hiring in December was led by professional firms. They added 73,000 jobs, though almost half were temporary. Construction companies added 45,000 new workers (but that might be more a sign of mild winter weather across much of the country in December, rather than a big upsurge in construction). Over the year, construction added 263,000 jobs, compared with a gain of 338,000 jobs in 2014. Health care employment rose by 39,000, with most …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Another Strong Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-04-2015 DOW + 369 = 17,847 SPX + 42 = 2091 NAS + 104 = 5142 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.28% OIL – 1.01 = 40.07 GOLD + 25.30 = 1087.90   The economy added 211,000 jobs last month, beating estimates of about 200,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 5% as more workers entered the labor pool. The Labor Force Participation Rate increased in November to 62.5%, from 62.4% in October. The last two months’ jobs numbers were revised higher. The government said 298,000 new jobs were created in October instead of 271,000. September’s gain was raised to 145,000 from 137,000. Over the past 12 months, the economy has added 2.64 million jobs.   Let’s break down jobs by sector: Employment in construction rose by 46,000 in November, with much of the increase occurring in residential specialty trade contractors (+26,000). Over the past year, construction employment has grown by 259,000. Professional and technical services added 28,000 jobs. Over the year, professional and technical services has added 298,000 jobs. Health care employment increased by 24,000 over the month, following a large gain in October (+51,000). In November, hospitals added 13,000 jobs. Health care employment has grown by 470,000 over the year. Employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in November (+32,000) and has risen by 374,000 over the year. Retail trades added …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Jobs Report Friday: meh

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-02-2015 DOW + 200 = 16,472 SPX + 27 = 1951 NAS + 80 = 4707 10 YR YLD – .05 = 1.99% OIL + .92 = 45.66 GOLD + 24.90 = 1139.40 SILV + .74 = 15.37   The economy added a seasonally adjusted 142,000 jobs in September, missing estimates by about 60,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1%. More people dropped out of the labor force.   The Department of Labor revised the August employment numbers from 173,000, down to just 136,000.  The disappointing back-to-back employment reports were the worst pair in three years. Employment gains for July were also revised down from 245,000 to 223,000. The combined revisions for July and August lopped off 59,000 jobs from previous reports. Normally, the August jobs number is revised higher, not lower. Because of education related jobs and other variables, the August report has been notorious for upward revisions; typically at least 35,000 positions are added to the initial count. Not today. Six of the past eight reports have been revised lower in subsequent months.   Taken together, the three months averaged 167,000, a total that, while representing expansion, also signifies a major slowdown from the 260,000 per month clip for all of 2014. Moreover, at the beginning of the year, the three-month average was 312,000. Overall in 2015, job creation is now below the 200,000 milestone, …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Tuesday, October 2, 2013 – Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs by Sinclair Noe DOW + 75 = 15,467SPX + 10 = 1754NAS + 9 = 392910 YR YLD – .10 = 2.51%OIL – 1.57 = 98.11GOLD + 24.60 – 1342.20SILV + .47 = 22.81 The Labor Department reported the economy added 148,000 net new jobs in September. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +104,000 to +89,000, and the change for August was revised from +169,000 to +193,000. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 9,000 more than previously reported. The unemployment rate declined in September to 7.2% from 7.3% in August. This is the lowest level for the unemployment rate since November 2008. The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged in September at 63.2%. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The participation rate looks at the people who are actually in the labor pool. As the Boomer generation retires, willingly or not, they get out of the labor pool, and this is why we’ve seen the unemployment rate decline, even though the economy isn’t really doing a great job of adding jobs. There are 4.146 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This was down from 4.290 million in August. This is generally trending down, but is still very high.  Long term unemployment remains one of the key labor problems in the US. Is the Affordable Care Act causing a surge in part-time employment? Apparently not. …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Friday, August 02, 2013 – Jobs and Side Bets

Jobs and Side Bets by Sinclair Noe DOW + 30 = 15,684SPX + 2 = 1709NAS + 13 = 368910 YR YLD – .11 = 2.60%OIL – .95 = 106.94GOLD + 4.60 = 1314.50SILV + .26 = 19.99 The stock market started lower, with tepid news on the jobs front, but managed to claw back into positive territory, confirming the perverse Wall Street logic that bad is good. The weakness in the jobs market was seen as proof positive the Fed will continue with QE to infinity and beyond, and talk of taper can be set aside for the next Fed Chairman, whoever he or she may be. The economy added 162,000 jobs last month; that was less than the estimates of 185,000 and less than the recent averages of about 192,000. Also, May and June payroll gains were revised down by 26,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.4% down from 7.6%. This is the lowest level for the unemployment rate since November 2008. Most of the decline in unemployment was due to more people getting jobs but part of it was due to a slight fall off in the labor force, a signal of not-too-strong labor demand, as 37,000 workers dropped out of the labor market. In July, the number of unemployed fell by 263,000 but the number of employed increased by only 227,000.  The participation rate ticked down one-tenth, to 63.4%, lower than it was a year ago at 63.7 %. The participation rate is at its lowest …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Thursday, June 06, 2013 – The World is Changing

The World is Changing by Sinclair Noe DOW + 80 = 15,040SPX + 13 = 1622NAS + 22 = 342410 YR YLD – .03 = 2.07OIL + .91 = 94.41GOLD + 11.00 = 1414.70SILV + .04 = 22.69 Today is June 6; on this date 69 years ago, nearly 200,000 Allied troops invaded the Normandy coast. Today is and will always be D-Day. The world is changing. For the first time in modern times, the emerging markets now account for more than half of global GDP. And they are continuing to grow; the majority of global growth the rest of this decade will happen in the developing world. India and China alone will make up almost half of it. The growth in emerging markets is partly a matter of playing catch up. Emerging markets have more room to grow; developed markets have already experienced the growth. The center of world economics is shifting, and it is shifting to the east. The International Labor Organization released its annual “World of Work” (PDF)report today. The employment rate won’t return to pre-crisis levels in emerging markets until 2015, while advanced economies will have to wait until 2017 for their work woes to end. But even then, the number of unemployed people is still set to grow 4% to 208 million in 2015. How can the employment rate and unemployment levels rise simultaneously? Because the unemployed are dropping out of the work force: In more than half of the countries surveyed, labor force participation …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Friday, May 03, 2013 – Jobs on the First Friday in May

Jobs on the First Friday in May by Sinclair Noe DOW + 142 = 14,873SPX + 16 = 1614NAS + 38 = 337810 YR YLD + .12 = 1.75%OIL + 1.47 = 95.46GOLD + 3.30 = 1471.70SILV + .30 = 24.23 If you’ve been a regular listener over the years you know that I get a little wonkish on the first Friday of each month. That’s the day we get the monthly jobs report. I consider this to be one of the most important economic reports and so I spend a little extra time covering it. Stick around, and we’ll make you an expert. Today, the Labor Department reports there were 165,000 net jobs added to the economy in April. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.5%, down from 7.6% in March; that’s the lowest level since December 2008. The number of jobs added beat estimates of a gain of 135,000 to around 155,000. The number of new jobs created in March was revised up to 138,000 from 88,000, while February’s figure was revised up to 332,000 from 268,000.With the revision, the 332,000 jobs gained in February was the biggest monthly gain in jobs since November 2005. So, the economy created 114,000 additional jobs in March and February than initially estimated.The average for the past three months is about 211,000 jobs. It is widely estimated that the economy needs to add 250,000 over an extended period of time in order to see the unemployment rate drop below 6%. The number of …

READ MORE →