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September, Thursday 22, 2011

DOW – 391 = 10,733SPX – 37 = 1,129NAS –82 = 245510YR YLD 1.71%OIL – 5.39 = 80.53GOLD – 64.90 = 1733.80SILVER -.54 = 36.03 In August, the S&P 500 dropped down to 1,101, the Dow Industrials dropped to 10,604. Today the Dow went to a low of 10,597 and found support. The S&P made it down to 1,114 and found support. The European markets set the tone for Wall Street this morning. We saw a gap down at the open. A reminder that a day like today can lead some traders to act or rather react; and the last thing you want to do is chase a gap down. If you want to short these markets, fine, but you really want to short before a gap down, not after a gap down. You do not want to sell into fear – just the opposite; you want to sell into greed. Quite simply, yesterday we got the FOMC announcement discussing “significant downside risks” accompanied by Operation Twist. The results kicked the legs out from under the remaining bulls on Wall Street and confirmed a chart pattern that has been setting up for the past month and a half, a bearish flag pattern – Well this looks like the breakdown of that congested flag pattern. And just in case you needed further confirmation of a bearish move – there was extremely heavy volume today Meanwhile, the results were bullish for bonds and the 20-Yr jumped 2.50% to challenge its multi-year highs …

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September, Tuesday 20, 2011

The Corporate Bank Run Has Started: Siemens Pulls €500 Million From A French Bank, Redeposits Direct With ECB http://www.zerohedge.com/news/shocker-siemens-pulls-%E2%82%AC500-million-french-bank-redeposits-direct-ecb Greece Nears the Precipice, Raising Fear http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/20/business/global/as-greece-struggles-the-world-imagines-a-default.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss Turnaround Tuesday – Greece is Fixed (again)http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/turnaround-tuesday-greece-fixed-again Stocks Shrug Off Italian Downgrade http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/21/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html?ref=business Bill Clinton’s Advice to President Obama on Jobs: Start With Clean Energy http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/bill-clinton-advice-president-obama-jobs-start-clean-142127429.html;_ylt=AkKxIsraPGO2y2pwscOqBUi7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1YzduN2FkBHBvcwMzBHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNiaWxsY2xpbnRvbnM-?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode= Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/20/us-usa-fed-idUSTRE78J3HB20110920 Global energy use to jump 53% http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/19/markets/global_energy_use/ Guest Post: Will Tokyo Be Evacuated Due to Fukushima Radiation? http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/09/guest-post-will-tokyo-be-evacuated-due-to-fukushima-radiation.html DOW + 7 = 11,408SPX – 2 = 1,202NAS – 22 = 2,59010 YR YLD = 1.94%OIL + 1.05 = 86.75GOLD + 26.60 = 1,801.50 Stocks were in positive territory for most of the day and then prices faded into the close. Once again, the story is Greece. A teleconference between Greek officials and international lenders, may have spurred sellers late in the day. After the teleconference, the European Commission said debt inspectors would continue to review Greece’s progress on its budget goals early next week. So, there will be no resolution to Greece’s debt crisis for at least the next few days. When debt grows to certain levels, then default is almost inevitable. The only question is whether the default is quick and painful or slow an painful. And who feels the pain. Greece is working frantically in concert with other European nations to avoid default, by embracing further austerity measures it has promised in return for more European bailout money to help pay its debts; but Greece keeps inching closer …

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September, Monday 19, 2011

Obama proposes new taxes on wealthy for half of debt planWhy the White House changed courseFed Runs Risk of Doing Less Than Investors ExpectRearranging the Deck ChairsTreasury bond yields dive as market bets on new Fed buying planGreek creditor talks to continue Tuesday Greek creditor talks end without decision on return of inspectors, to continue Tuesday Soros: Crisis ‘Worse Than Lehman’ Geithner denies ignoring Obama’s request on banksGeithner denies new book’s allegations that he ignored Obama’s request on banking industry Obama’s Economic Quagmire: Frank Rich and Adam Moss Talk About What’s Really in Ron Suskind’s Revealing New Book About the White House SEC moves to limit firms’ bets against clientsNews International to pay $4.7 million to settle hacking Wall St. Protesters Say They’re Settled In DOW – 108 = 11401SPX – 11 = 1204NAS – 9 = 261210 yr. Yld = 1.94%GOLD – 30.40 = 1788.00OIL – .14 = 85.56 We have three major stories in today’s market: President Obama’s debt plan, the Federal Reserve’s two day FOMC meeting later in the week, and the European meltdown.Let’s start with the President’s plan: Obama came out with a plan to cut the deficit by $3 trillion dollars; half with spending cuts and half with tax increases. Obama threatened to veto any plan to tame the debt that does not pair cuts to Medicare and Medicaid with increases in taxes on the rich.“We can’t just cut our way out of this hole,” Obama said. “It’s going to take a balanced approach.”So, Obama …

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September, Friday 09, 2011

DOWSPXNas10yr NoteGoldOil Stocks decidedly lower today. The Dow Industrials with another triple digit move. We haven’t seen this kind of volatility since October 2008. And there are some other things going on here. Treasury debt prices rose and that pushed the yield on the 10-year note to the lowest levels in 60 years. The dollar moved to a 6-month high against the Euro. This is not so much a move based on the strength of the dollar, but rather the weakness of the Euro. President Obama took his $447 billion dollar jobs plan on the road. The package includes $245 billion in tax cuts, $140 billion in infrastructure improvements, and $62 billion in unemployment assistance. Specific items include cutting the payroll tax for employers and workers, as well as projects such as roads, bridges, and schools. It was a good speech, as speeches go. The next question is whether the other politicians can manage to get behind the President’s plans or any plans to deal with the unemployment problem. Still another question is whether any plans will be enough to make an appreciable difference in actually lowering the unemployment rate substantially. I don’t have great confidence in the Job Plan to actually create jobs. I don’t have great confidence in the plan’s ability to lift the economy out of the downturn. I do have great confidence in our politicians… to continue being completely dysfunctional. Another question on investors’ minds this week was whether the Federal Reserve would weigh in with …

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September, Wednesday 07, 2011

DOWSPXNAS102 Day 2 of the Financial Review. I received a few notes on yesterday’s Review. It was suggested that there was an overload of information. Don’t worry; this will get easier as we go along. You are all very smart and I am confident that you will handle the information presented. Today, we have a tremendous amount of information to cover. A little later, we’ll be talking with Scott Paul, Executive Director of the American Manufacturing Association; we’ll cover some ideas for getting manufacturing jobs back on the growth path. Then in the second half hour we’ll be talking with Dr. John Mathis, Professor of Global Finance at the Thunderbird School. Then we’ll check in with Dr. Lee McPheters from ASU. Another note said yesterday’s program was “scary like Halloween”. To which I say, keep listening. I am not preaching doom and gloom. There is nothing that can’t be overcome but there is plenty that could “whup you upside the head” if you’re not paying attention. Even more, there are opportunities if you are alert. I will try to keep us all alert but I’m not going to sugar coat things; in other words, I’m not going to lie. If you want a saccharine sweet economic analysis, you can just watch the main stream media, you can just read and blindly accept the pablum spewed forth by the Federal Reserve. Today, the Fed published their Beige Book, and they described the economy as subdued, slow, and sluggish. What you haven’t …

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Wealth Protection Conference 2011 ScriptPresented April 22, 2011 – Tempe, AZ Over the past few week’s I have been filling in as substitute host of Hard Money Watch on KFNN Sunday mornings at 10:00 AM PDT, until Pat returns to the microphone. I’ve had the pleasure of interviewing several of the speakers that will be featured at this year’s WPC. If you want to listen to the archived programs, go to www.buysilvernow.com and click on the radio tab. I have also been writing. Last year, my book “Eat the Bankers: The Case Against Usury” was published. It is available at amazon.com. The book premises that removing restrictions against usury led to the economic crisis and wasted a great economy by shifting investment capital away from productive purposes; usury stunted economic development and perpetuates poverty. The result has been the greatest redistribution of wealth in history. Usury enslaves the borrower and oppresses the poor. Today’s corporate nobility is no different than the monarchs, oligarchs, and tyrants of old; the difference is that enslavement is now accomplished with economic tools and usury is the blunt axe that chops away at our incomes, our savings, the economy, and our freedom. You can’t create fiat money without usury and I believe that limiting usury is the key to honest money, even more than a gold or silver standard. This book tends to make people angry. My day job is as an estate planner; my office is in Los Angeles. If you would like to …

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Friday Night Frights – Aug. 6, 2010

The over/unders were 5. The private sector added jobs but Census workers are now out of work; the result was a net loss of jobs. The participation rate was revised down to 64.6% from 64.7% so the monthly jobs report shows unemployment holding steady at 9.5%. Yes, Virginia the numbers are all make believe. People aren’t participating in the labor market because there are almost no jobs to be had. The real unemployment number is just over 21%. Consumers aren’t consuming; this is understandable because they don’t have jobs. They are holding onto their dollars until the eagle grins. Consumer credit outstanding shrank for the fifth straight month in June. Second quarter Gross Domestic Production was revised to 2.4 percent growth compared to 3.7% GDP growth in the first quarter. The worst depression since the Great Depression just keeps getting more depressing. Much of the first half growth was attributed to inventory adjustments. So we are setting up for a second half decline. Unless consumers go on a wild spending spree, businesses won’t be restocking inventories. Second half growth will have a hard time topping 2%. We predicted this back in March. The next sixty days on Wall Street will likely be ugly. Don’t believe me? Goldman Sachs is now betting on deflation. After all, what can business do? Cut costs by laying off more workers? Maybe, but that just adds to the deflationary spiral. Also, liquidity is drying up; the money supply isn’t growing; the banks aren’t lending. The …

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Friday Night Frights 07-30-2010

The over/unders were 5. It’s a push. Five banks failed. “My feet hurt” and “I’m tired of giving in.”* Citigroup agreed to pay $75 million in fines. When the subprime problem began to unravel Citi lied to regulators, claiming they only had $13 billion in exposure to subprime loans when they really had closer to $43 billion in exposure. When Citi’s losses started to cascade, the government ultimately bailed them out. In reaching the settlement, Citi did not admit or deny wrongdoing. Only real people go to jail, not corporations. About 19 million homes were vacant in the second quarter. Home ownership is at the lowest level in a decade. More than 3 million home owners will receive foreclosure notices this year and more than one million will lose their homes to foreclosure. For every house on the market there are at least two homes sitting vacant, waiting to be sold; it’s called “shadow inventory”. Shadow inventory doesn’t include people who want to sell but can’t because the market is so weak. Mix in high unemployment and the fact that wages for 98% of Americans have dropped over the past 30 years and you have the recipe for further declines in home prices. You might think more problems in the housing market would be bad for the big banks but it would be foolish to bet against them. The megabanks actually make money on foreclosures; it’s the rest of the economy, the small banks, the local businesses, municipalities, and families …

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