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Wednesday, April 4, 2012

DOW -124 = 13,074SPX – 14 = 1398NAS – 45 = 306810 YR YLD -.04 = 2.24% OIL +.57 = 102.04 GOLD – 25.40 = 1621.40SILV – 1.32 = 31.46PLAT – 43.00 = 1604.00 So, we made it through the first quarter, and it was just delightful, one of the best first quarter rallies in years; the S&P up about 12%, the NASDAQ up 18%. Do you think the S&P will continue at that pace in the second, third, and fourth quarters? Do you think the S&P will gain 48% this year? Actually a bit more. Do you think the NASDAQ will gain 72%? Let’s sort through what it really means. Are we seeing recovery or was it just a cyclical bull in a secular bear? Remember hearing about green shoots? Remember when they withered on the vine? How do recognize a genuine, sustainable recovery? First you have to realize there is an economic ebb and flow and there are some fairly predictable patterns that emerge. There were good years for investors back in the Great Depression but it was still a Great Depression. And we still have threats to the economy. Treasury Secretary Timothy Giethner said today that fallout from the European debt crisis along with fears of Iran and higher oil prices posed the biggest threats to the U.S. economy. “Europe is still facing a very difficult, very challenging period. They are likely to have weak growth. You have, obviously, the fear of Iran and oil prices, even though that is …

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March, Monday 26, 2012

DOW + 160 = 13,241SPX + 19 = 1416NAS + 54 = 312210 YR YLD +.01 = 2.24% OIL + .08 = 107.11GOLD + 27.10 = 1690.90SILV +.60 = 32.94PLAT + 1.36 = 22.00 Last week was the worst week of 2012 for the S&P 500. No big collapse last week, just a down week. The S&P 500 is still up 25% since the end of September. We have a nice bull market, likely a cyclical bull underway, and with good reason. We’ve seen some improvement in the economy; the unemployment rate has been moving lower; economic activity has picked up in the manufacturing and services sectors; central banks have been shoveling money out of helicopters from Athens to Rome to New York. C’est si bon! Let the good times roll. Of course, you probably remember the almost total collapse and meltdown of the global financial system a few years back and you might be wondering what was done to correct the malinvestment; and the answer is nothing. Everything is still as screwed up as ever; nothing was fixed. And then you remember that even though we have this nice cyclical bull market, we are still in a secular bear, at least for now; and that means the recovery is perilous at best. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke gave a speech today and he basically said we’re not out of the woods just yet. Bernanke said he’s encouraged by the unemployment rate’s decline to 8.3 percent, continued accommodative monetary policy will …

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March, Wednesday 07, 2012

DOW + 78 = 12,837SPX + 9 = 1352NAS + 25 = 293510 YR YLD +.03 = 1.97%OIL + 1.46 = 106.16GOLD + 9.70 = 1685.30SILV +.48 = 33.53PLAT + 18.00 = 1633.00 Yesterday the Dow Industrials dropped a couple of hundred points. That was all it took; now the talk is about more free money from the Fed. The Murdoch Street Journal is reporting the Fed is considering a new type of bond-buying program. The Fed would print new money to buy long-term mortgage or Treasury bonds but effectively tie up that money by borrowing it back for short periods at low rates. I’m sure we’ll hear more details in the days and weeks ahead, but this goes in line with the idea that the Fed will try to juice the housing market in an election year. The initial guess is that this move might lower long term rates and mortgage rates. This quantitative easing, the article calls it “sterilized” quantitative easing, would use reverse-repurchase agreements to keep the money from flowing to bank reserves, the thinking there is that it would not be a big boost of inflation. The Fed has an existing program in place to lower long-term interest rates. Since September, the Fed has been replacing short-term securities on its balance sheet with longer-term securities, a program known as Operation Twist. This $400 billion program ends in mid-June. So, this is no surprise. We’ve been telling you the Fed would have some form of QE3 and …

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February, Monday 27, 2012

DOW – 1 = 12,981SPX + 1 = 1367NAS + 2 = 296610 YR YLD -.06 = 1.92%OIL – 1.07 = 108.70GOLD – 5.50 = 1769.10SILV +.05 = 35.56PLAT – 3.00 = 1711.00 Let’s look at the price of a gallon of gas and the factors that have been pushing prices higher. You may recall that last May, oil prices moved up to $114 per barrel. So one of the first considerations is that this is a seasonal move. You will also recall that last spring, the oil production in Libya was disrupted. After a while, Khadafi was deposed and by last October, prices had dropped to $75 a barrel. Now the concern is Iran, and any disruption in Iranian oil supply would be considerably larger than Libya, and might lead to even more widespread disruption of oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran produces about 4.3 million barrels per day. So, now we are looking at the imposition of sanctions on Iran. What are the implications? The most likely result of sanctions is that the countries participating in the sanctions would have to cut back demand and find new sources, and the countries not participating could buy the oil from Iran. China and India would buy more oil from Iran, while Europe would buy more oil from Saudi Arabia. There would still be the same amount of oil in the global market, just have to buy it from different sources. Maybe sanctions could alter global production, or maybe …

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February, Friday 24, 2012

DOW  – 1 = 12,982SPX + 2 = 1365 NAS + 6 = 296310 YR YLD – .01 = 1.98% OIL +1.86 = 109.69 GOLD – 6.50 = 1774.60 SILV +.04 = 35.51PLAT – 13.00 = 1717.00 We’ve almost made it through the first two months of the year and if you haven’t noticed, things are getting better. This is not to say that everything is good or even great, just that things are getting better. And of course, there is the caveat that things might get worse and that could happen fast and it could be severe, but for this specific moment in time, things are getting better. Some people would like to deny this; they claim this getting better notion is a false meme; we’re being manipulated into believing that things are getting better when they are not. Despite the presence of bright sunlight, we know that the darkness of night is right around the corner; and even cold, hard numbers are unconvincing. Let’s look at the numbers: the S&P 500 has doubled in less than 3 years, and it’s up more than 8% year to date; just this week home sales showed strength and inventories dropped, the unemployment rate has been steadily dropping and the initial claims for jobless benefits fell to the lowest level since March, 2008; and consumer confidence in January moved to its best level in a year. Maybe these numbers don’t apply to you personally; fair enough. And it’s easy to claim the …

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February, Thursday 23, 2012

DOW + 46 = 12,984SPX + 5 = 1363NAS +23 = 295610 YR YLD -.02 = 1.98%OIL +2.41 = 108.69GOLD +4.30 = 1781.10SILV + 1.11 = 35.47PLAT – 2.00 – 1728.00 How much does it cost you to get to work each week? How much do you spend on gasoline? Is it $10 a day? $50 a week? Maybe a couple of hundred a month? Maybe more? For a whole lot of people, when the price of gas starts to go up, it has a definite impact on their budgets and on their lifestyles. Last year, the average American family spent 8.4% of their incomes on gasoline; that percentage has doubled over the last ten years. And the price of gas doesn’t just affect people who drive long miles; the price of energy gets factored into almost everything because almost everything we buy has to be transported. When the price of gas goes up, it tends to push prices up on everything. The strength of the economy is largely predicated on cheap oil. When the price of oil goes higher, we tend to cut back to compensate. Americans are using less gasoline; as the price has increased, demand has dropped; we drive less, and still the price at the pump moves higher. The average price across the country is now up to $3.53 a gallon. In California, the average price is 3.96. The price is up 25 cents a gallon since the start of the year. The Oil Price Information …

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February, Wednesday 22, 2012

DOW  – 27 = 12,938SPX – 4 = 1357NAS – 15 = 293310 YR YLD -.04 = 2.00%OIL -.30 = 105.95GOLD + 15.50 = 1776.80SILV – .09 = 34.36PLAT + 12.00 = 1727.00 So, the Euro-Union bailed out Greece and the thinking is that the lazy, shiftless, socialists in Greece can roll around in the cash. The reality is that Greece won’t be getting any cash. The bailout money will go into an escrow account and most of the money will ultimately go to the European banks; the creditors have senior claims over any bailout cash. The Greek citizens will never see a penny of the bailout cash. All the money will be used to fund debt interest and maturity payments. Now anybody who has ever had a mortgage will probably remember that there are fees associated with establishing an escrow account. So, not only do the Greek citizens not get a single penny, they have to pay for the bailout. It’s a negative bailout. Remember a couple of months ago, I told you the Europeans were going to follow the Federal Reserve Playbook for dealing with debt crises. The playbook called for privatized profits and socialized losses. So, where is the bailout money going? The banks. The socialists are the banks. And then let’s put some salt on the wound. Fitch downgraded its credit rating on Greece to Triple-C. Which is just one step above default, and is basically very dangerous, very speculative junk status. The Greek parliament still …

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February, Tuesday 21, 2012

DOW +15 = 12965 SPX +0.98 = 1362NAS – 3 = 294810 YR YLD +.04 = 2.05% OIL +2.64 = 105.88GOLD + 26.20 = 1761.30SILV + .74 = 34.45PLAT + 44.00 = 1694.00 The European Union has approved a $170 billion-dollar bailout package for Greece. No surprise; they had to come up with a deal, they were running out of time. The Euro-crisis is now officially under control; at least for a couple of days. There is still the little problem of making sure the ring-fences hold. The Euro-Union has set up massive pools of money to make emergency loans. The ECB has loaned more than $600 billion to Euro-banks. It still remains to be seen if the loans do anything more than allow the Euro-banks to kick the can down the road. Meanwhile, the Euro-zone is in a recession and the prescribed medicine is austerity. The cure may be worse than the affliction. And when all is said and done, the cure may not actually cure anything. Part of the plan is to bring down Greek debt to 120% of GDP within the next 8 years, but if Greece misses a few economic assumptions, they might end up with debt to GDP at 160%. And the truth is that whether it is 120% or 160%, the debt is going to bury Greece, and the bailout won’t stop it. Countries like Germany might demand even tougher conditions on loans. Politics and democracy might destabilize the markets. Part of the deal …

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February, Monday 20, 2012

What would happen if the Federal Reserve was shut down? Most Americans don’t really think about the Fed much. Most Americans think the Federal Reserve is just another government agency that sets our interest rates. But that is not the case at all. Most Americans don’t realize the Fed isn’t really a government agency, and that we haven’t always had a central bank. The Federal Reserve’s stated mission is to conduct the nation’s monetary policy by influencing the monetary and credit conditions in the economy in pursuit of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates; to supervise and regulate banking and financial systems to ensure the safety and soundness of the nation’s banking and financial system and to protect the credit rights of consumers; and to maintain the stability of the financial system and contain systemic risk that may arise in financial markets. The truth is that the Federal Reserve is a private banking cartel that has  systematically destroyed the value of our currency, diminished the wealth of the American public and subjects the federal government to perpetually expanding debt. The Constitution states that Congress has the responsibility to conduct the nation’s monetary policy, but the Federal Reserve has usurped that authority. Any honest review of the past 30 years would conclude that the Fed has failed in its mission. The Fed’s monetary manipulations led to the worst unemployment since the Great Depression, price volatility, excessive swings in interest rates, extremely low rates for member banks, and usurious …

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February, Thursday 16, 2012

DOW + 123 = 12,904SPX + 14 = 1358NAS + 44 = 295910 YR YLD +.06 = 1.99%OIL +.55 = 102.35GOLD +.70 = 1729.80SILV +.02 = 33.62PLAT – 10.00 = 1629.00 The number of people seeking unemployment benefits fell to the lowest point in almost four years last week, the latest signal that the job market is steadily improving. Weekly applications for unemployment benefits dropped 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000. It was the fourth drop in five weeks and the fewest number of claims since March 2008. The US economy is showing signs of strength. New construction of houses rose 1.5% in January. Part of the increase can be attributed to unseasonably warm weather, however part of it is that the economy is showing signs of strength. The Philly Fed Index of manufacturing hit a  four month high in February. US manufacturers just had their best month of growth in five years. As manufacturing has increased it has rippled through the economy, increasing demand in other industries, such as shipping and transportation. Part of the increase may be attributed to pent-up demand; individuals and businesses postponed purchases over the past three years. Now companies are investing in machinery and computers. Individuals are once again starting to make purchases of certain discretionary items, and even cars. Two years after emerging from bankruptcy GM unveiled record profits of $7.6 billion for 2011. It’s been a great year for GM. Although its European business is still in reverse and it is unlikely …

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February, Monday 13, 2012

DOW +72 = 12,874SPX + 9 = 1351NAS +27 = 293110 YR YLD +.02 = 1.99%OIL +2.33 = 101.00GOLD -.20 = 1722.90SILV +.13 = 33.82PLAT – 1.00 = 1655.00 Last week we heard about the $25 billion dollar mortgage fraud settlement. President Obama has vowed to follow it up with an expanded inquiry that is supposed to produce broader accountability and a far larger payout. At best, this round of relief will reach about two million former and current homeowners. Under the agreement, banks will grant some $10 billion worth of principal reduction, $3 billion in refi’s and $7 billion in other mortgage relief, like forbearance for unemployed borrowers, covering roughly one million borrowers in total. Another $1.5 billion will be cash payments of about $2,000 to some 750,000 borrowers who were treated unfairly in foreclosures from 2008 through 2011. And $3.5 billion will go to state and federal governments for what has been described as resources for legal aid and other counseling for borrowers facing foreclosure. Such aid is vitally important, but it appears that the earmarked money also could be used to plug state budget holes, rather than empower homeowners in their fights against the banks.  The banks did not get the blanket release they originally sought from legal liability for all manner of mortgage misconduct. But the settlement still shields them from state and federal civil lawsuits for most foreclosure abuses, including the wrongful denial of loan mods, excessive late fees that enriched the banks but could …

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February, Thursday 09, 2012

DOW + 6 = 12,890SPX + 1 = 1351 NAS + 11 = 292710 YR YLD +.07 = 2.07%OIL +1.09 = 99.80GOLD -2.90 = 1730.10SILV -.04 = 34.00PLAT – 5.00 = 1661.00 Greece is a done deal. The Big Bank settlement for abusive mortgage practice is a done deal. We’ll start with the Greek deal and then we’ll look at the mortgage settlement and if you’ll ever see a penny of the $25 billion dollar deal. Finance ministers from across Europe flew to Brussels to put their seal of approval on an orderly default of Greek debt. Private sector investors will swap their old Greek bonds for new Greek bonds, and they will give up 70 percent of the value, and Athens will reduce its overall debt of 350 billion euros, down to 250 billion euros. To deal with the remaining pile of debt, the technocrats are requiring deep austerity measures. Greece’s two major labor unions have already called for a 48 hour strike on Friday and Saturday. It is widely expected there will be social unrest. There were quite a few special interests represented at the negotiating table; that’s probably why it took so long. In the era of debt securitization, creditors have become far more numerous, and include hedge funds and other investors over whom regulators and governments have little sway. “Innovation” in financial markets has made it possible for securities owners to be insured, meaning that they have a seat at the table, but no “skin in …

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February, Wednesday 08, 2012

DOW + 5 = 12, 883SPX + 2 = 1349NAS + 11 = 291510 YR YLD +.01 = 1.98%OIL +.63 = 99.04GOLD – 12.90 = 1733.00SILV – .21 = 34.04PLAT + 14.00 = 1668.00 Once again we had a quiet day on Wall Street, and the justification du jour was everyone was waiting on Greece. Which is kind of silly. Greece is finalizing details of a debt reduction deal, an orderly default on Greek bonds. They will swap the old bonds for new bonds at about 30 cents on the dollar. Quite a few private sector investors will take a hit, but very few if any are taking the full hit. These bonds have been trading lower over a period of time. Officials in Brussels announced a meeting of Euro-zone finance ministers tomorrow. They wouldn’t announce the meeting if they didn’t have a deal; at least, that is the thinking. Once the deal is finalized, there is still a vote in Parliament on Sunday, and that means the politicians will have to sell the deal to the people. It won’t be an easy sale. In exchange for an orderly debt default, the government gets bailout money, but they will force the people to cut public sector jobs, there will be a 22% drop in the minimum wage; pensions and benefits will also be cut; big chunks of the economy will be privatized. One politician described it this way: “Tough demands are like tight shoes, sooner or later, you want to …

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February, Tuesday 07, 2012

DOW + 33 = 12, 878SPX + 2 = 1347NAS + 2 = 290410 YR YLD +.06 = 1.96%OIL + 1.74 = 98.65GOLD + 25.00 = 1744.90SILV +.47 = 34.15 PLAT + 36.00 = 1647.00 I talked with a friend this weekend about the unbelievably better than expected jobs report on Friday. My friend was a bit surprised that I viewed the report favorably. I tried to explain that the report was deeply flawed, seriously imperfect, and likely not accurate, however it is probably still the best report to track the jobs picture, even with strange seasonal adjustments. The debate continued that the jobs report was certainly nothing more than a big BLS snow job, and if I bothered to look at the tax rolls, I would see that tax revenue declined while jobs were supposedly increasing. Of course, that’s what happens when you cut the payroll tax rates. Then I heard the argument that if we really counted the way we used to count in 1994 the unemployment rate would be 22.5%, and I was politely told about shadowstats. Well, I’ve met John Williams and I’ve cited John Williams, and if we compare today’s  unemployment rate to 1993, then he has a good point, but if we compare the unemployment rate from a year ago or 3 years ago then the jobs picture is improving; apples to apples and oranges to oranges. Then my friend asked if the economy was recovering. I think we’re still in a small “d” …

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February, Monday 06, 2012

DOW – 17 = 12,845SPX -0.5 = 1344NAS – 3 = 290110 YR YLD -.05 =1.90%OIL – .93 = 96.91GOLD – 6.00 = 1720.90SILV +.01 = 33.78PLAT -10.00 = 1629.00 Today was supposed to be a deadline for Greece to accept its punishment and fall into line. The Greeks were expected to strike a deal for an orderly debt default, which would secure a $170 billion dollar bailout for the Greeks, and avoid a disorderly meltdown of Credit Default Swaps, which could in turn cause a meltdown of the European shadow banking system, which could in turn cause a meltdown of the Euro-banks, which in turn could cause a meltdown of several Euro countries, and then ultimately the rest of Euro-land, and then the USSA, and then life as we know it would cease – or something like that. The office of Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, a former central banker who heads an unelected government of politicians and technocrats, said that a meeting of leaders from the conservative, socialist and far-right parties due on Monday had been postponed to Tuesday. German Chancellor Angela Merkel was saying all sorts of jibberish about how important it is for Greece to do the deal, and she gave every indication her patience is wearing thin. Merekel claims she wants “Greece to stay in the Euro,” and she says, “Something needs to happen quickly, and then she hammered the point that “A lot is at stake for the entire euro-zone.” And the Greeks seem to …

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February, Thursday 02, 2012

DOW – 11 = 12,705SPX + 1 = 1325NAS + 11 = 2859 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.83%OIL – 1.25 = 96.36GOLD + 15.40 = 1759.40SILV +.65 = 34.46PLAT + 11.00 = 1635.00 Tomorrow is the big monthly jobs report. We all want to know the condition of the economy and jobs are the key to the other elements of a healthy economy such as: consumption, profits, credit, debt, deficit reduction, tax revenues, and the financial markets. The jobs report can move the markets and yet the jobs report tomorrow won’t really provide as much information as we want and need. The jobs report is based on a survey sample and there are errors in the sampling rate and the response rate. Then the report will be revised over the next two months. Then the report will be benchmarked against state reports. And we’re still dealing with guesstimates for job creation, and those guesses for job losses tended to lag as the economy turned down, and the best guess is that the guesstimates for job creation are lagging as the economy turns up. And then 8 months from now, we’ll get a number that shows how many “net” jobs were added to the economy, largely based on tax rolls. We know that jobs are being lost. We rarely hear that the economy is creating about 7 million jobs per quarter. The long-running decline in the proportion of Americans still tied to the labor force relative to the nation’s …

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February, Wednesday 1, 2012

DOW + 83 = 12,716SPX +11 = 1324NAS +34 = 284810 YR YLD +.05 = 1.85%OIL -1.31 = 97.17GOLD + 6.30 = 1744.00SILV +.58 = 33.81PLAT +31.00 = 1622.00 MF Global’s customers’ money didn’t just vaporize. Investigators have determined what happened to nearly all of the customer money that disappeared from MF Global around the time of its bankruptcy last Oct. 31, but have not publicly disclosed their progress, fearing that doing so might cripple efforts to recover the cash and pursue potential wrongdoing. Dealbook reports authorities have traced hundreds of millions of dollars to banks, MF Global’s trading partners and even the firm’s securities customers, but investigators remain uncertain about whether they can retrieve the money. Some recipients were entitled to payouts from MF Global, which could make clawing back the money difficult. For instance, securities customers withdrawing their money as MF Global began to collapse were paid from accounts that belonged to futures clients. A significant impediment has been clashes among the parties trying to resolve the MF Global mess: three federal agencies and two bankruptcy trustees. As of late December, investigators had obtained more than 10,000 e-mails, interviewed more than 50 witnesses and subpoenaed about 20 people. Customers, including farmers, hedge funds and other small traders, have been very frustrated with the pace of the investigation and the dearth of updates about their missing money. Even regulators are growing anxious about how long the investigation is taking. In November, investigators said they began to worry that money …

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January, Tuesday 31, 2012

DOW – 20 = 12,632SPX – 0.6 = 1312 NAS + 1 = 281310 YR YLD  –  .04 = 1.80%OIL  –  .50 = 98.28GOLD + 6.40 = 1737.70SILV -.37 = 33.23PLAT – 23.00 = 1591.00 Greece has worked out a debt swap agreement with private bondholders where the creditors will take a loss of about 70%, but they won’t make an announcement until later in the week; there is still some unfinished business. The Greek technocrats must beat the local population into submission; the government will demand commitments on reforms, labor issues and the pension system. The Greek technocrats are very aware that further austerity measures would likely deepen the recession and impose additional hardships. And then there is the prospect of an election in April which could spell the end of the technocrats. And then there is the prospect of more protests in the streets, which tends to make governments nervous; just ask Hosni Mubarak.  Average, everyday Greeks on the street are more than miffed that the economists find it so easy to dispatch democracy to the dustbin when they are convinced they have the right technical answers. But other than that, the Greeks have apparently cobbled together a deal; it’s just not cobbled enough to show to anybody. Why? Well, one of the big stumbling blocks is that the European Central Bank holds Greek bonds, and while it might be fine for private bondholders to take a  70% haircut, the ECB is still hoping to make a profit. …

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January, Monday 30, 2012

DOW – 6 = 12653SPX – 3 = 1313NAS – 4 = 281110 YR YLD – .06 = 1.84%OIL – .61 = 98.94GOLD – 7.00 = 1731.30SILV – .49 = 33.60 PLAT – 10.00 = 1616.00 The stock market moved lower this morning; the justification was that Greece had not resolved its debt crisis. The 27 nations of the European Union held their 17th Summit in the past 2 years. The Greeks have been trying put together a deal with private bondholders to restructure about 200 billion euros of debt. But they couldn’t come up with completed deal. You’re shocked; I know; I’m shocked. And so the EU leaders can’t do anything until a deal gets done in Greece. To push things forwar, the Germans proposed a European Commissar take control of Greek public finances to ensure it meets its fiscal targets. Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said that to make his country choose between national dignity and financial assistance ignored the lessons of history. The German call won cautious backing from the Dutch and Swedish prime ministers. Apparently everyone forgot that the EU has already installed an unelected technocrat to run the country, Prime Minister Lucas Papademos. Then the Europeans talked about increasing the bailout funds to make at least a trillion dollar fire-ring around the economies of Portugal and Ireland and Greece, in hopes that the default problem doesn’t jump to Spain and Italy and get out of control.Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner went to the World Economic Forum …

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January, Thursday 26, 2012

DOW – 22 = 12,734 SPX – 7 =1318NAS – 13 = 280510 YR YLD -.08 = 1.93OIL +.48 = 99.88GOLD + 9.70 = 1721.50SILV +.20 = 33.57PLAT + 24.00 = 1614.00 Remember back before the holidays I told you the European Central Bank was following the Federal Reserve’s playbook?  The ECB was going to loan the Euro-banks plenty of capital, which would allow the big Euro-banks to report adequate capital ratios when they file their annual reports – which is a way of saying the banks get a big bailout, and then the banks could buy sovereign bonds. And the bottom line is they were not going to allow a deflationary collapse in Europe. And then yesterday, the Federal Reserve said they will keep interest rates at zero, and when you consider inflation, it really is less than zero, but the Fed said they aren’t thinking about inflation; they set a target for inflation and they’ll check back in a few years. The new Fed policy is negative real interest rates, but no new stimulus, no QE3 today.  JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says Europe is not a problem:”The direct impact of a Greek default is almost zero. There’s a teeny chance of a catastrophic outcome, which is why the muddle-through is the only good strategy. There is no other good strategy,” Dimon believes the ECB’s long term refinance operations took the liquidity problem off the table in Europe. Dimon did not address the difference between liquidity and …

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