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Wednesday, March 20, 2013 – Not Today

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend.  Not Today by Sinclair Noe DOW + 55 = 14,511SPX + 10 = 1558NAS + 25 = 325410 YR YLD +.03 = 1.94%OIL + 1.14 = 93.30GOLD – 6.10 = 1607.70SILV – .09 = 28.92 Looking back, we all remember the crisis of 2008, money markets broke the buck, Bear Stearns bombed as Cramer cried buy, buy, buy; Lehman imploded; and Hank Paulson scribbled a 3 page note and begged, literally begged Nancy Pelosi on bended knee to bailout the banksters. And then in 2009, the strangest thing happened. The stock market bottomed and started moving higher. There were challenges along the way, here’s a partial list: the Latvian financial crisis, the Dubai debt crisis (those were both in 2009), the flash crash in 2010, the Greek crisis and the first bailout in May 2010, Ireland crisis in November 2010, the Arab Spring actually started in December 2010, the war in Libya in February 2011, the Japanese tsunami was just 2 years ago, the Portuguese debt crisis, the US credit downgrade in the summer of 2011, the Spanish bailout in June …

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Friday, January 25, 2013 – Closing In On the Days of Milk and Cookies

Closing In On the Days of Milk and Cookies by Sinclair Noe DOW + 70 = 13,895SPX + 8 = 1502NAS + 19 = 314910 YR YLD + .10 = 1.95% OIL + .06 = 96.01GOLD – 8.10 = 1660.30SILV – .44 = 31.28 Once upon a time, about five years ago to be more precise, we lived in a land of milk and cookies. Some of you are old enough to remember those happy days when the Dow Industrials hit the dizzying heights of 14,164 in October 9, 2007. The all-time high on the S&P 500 index was 1565, made on October 9, 2007. Of course, the heady, happy days full of hubris were followed by cataclysmic, economic catastrophe as the global financial meltdown followed in short dis-order. Some of us saw it coming, even if we weren’t quite sure how it would hit us. Still, it’s an old and oft repeated story. “Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall”; but with humility comes wisdom. If only. What can we expect if we hit new highs? Likely a crash. That’s the pattern. Build it up to watch it fall. Part of the reason for the pattern is that the main driver for market gains has been the Federal Reserve’s near constant injections of stimulus into the markets; and if we hit highs, the thinking is that the Fed could back off the juice, and when that happens, the financial markets get a nasty case of the …

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Thursday, January 24, 2013 – Financial Talk Radio Content Enhancement Bill of 2013

Financial Talk Radio Content Enhancement Bill of 2013 by Sinclair Noe DOW + 46 = 13,285SPX +0.01 = 1494NAS – 23 = 313010 YR YLD +.01 = 1.84%OIL + .84 = 96.07GOLD – 17.10 = 1668.70SILV – .59 = 31.74 Archived audio at www.moneyradio.com (financial review) First, let’s deal with Apple and then we’ll move on. Interesting side note, on this day in 1984, then-Apple Chairman Steve Jobs introduced the Macintosh, one of the first and most successful personal computers to use a mouse and a graphical user interface Late yesterday, the company announced mediocre earnings. That’s when everyone started freaking out. Analysts dissected every second of the conference call, trying to predict the specs of the next iPhone or what the company might do with its mountain of cash. CNBC’s coverage was especially hilarious. The talking heads asked their expert guests over and over again to tell the people when they should buy this stock; which is like telling people when to catch a falling knife. The price action has been horrible. The chart’s broken. There’s really no reason to try and catch shares as they continue to flame out. Apple’s fall from grace isn’t the big story here. Just six months ago, Apple stock was trading near $700. The stock made up a whopping 20% of the NASDAQ-100. So every single tick moved the market. If Apple had a bad day, there was a good chance it would drag the rest of the Nasdaq down with it. What’s …

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Tuesday, December 11, 2012 – If Banks Could Kill They Probably Will

If Banks Could Kill They Probably Will by Sinclair Noe DOW + 78 = 13,248SPX + 9 = 1427NAS + 35 = 302210YR YLD +.03 = 1.65%OIL +.09 = 85.65GOLD – 2.20 = 1711.40SILV – .27 = 33.10 If all goes according to plan, in about 13 days, a star will rise in the east somewhere over Washington DC, signaling the birth of a new budget deal. If you’re waiting for three wise men, don’t hold your breath, because they couldn’t find them in our nation’s capitol. With just days to go before the nation slides down the fiscal Cliff Clavin of tax increases and spending cuts mandated by our confederacy of dunces to take effect with the passing of the arbitrary date on a calendar, there are signs that a deal to avoid the slide is near. Pert’ near every reporter in Washington says a deal is imminent. Just this Sunday, Obama and Boehner met in secret, well, not exactly a secret, and they did something, maybe they came up with a deal, maybe they barbequed some brats and watched some football, but their silence on the subject speaks volumes. Their silence almost provides proof positive that a bipartisan deal must be something that might have possibly been a part of the silent conversation, or not; but hey, it looks like a deal, except for all those pesky details. And it only took two years, possibly, of unnecessary uncertainty and sovereign debt downgrades to hammer out an agreement to …

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Monday, November 5, 2012 – There is a Light at the End of the Tunnel

There is a Light at the End of the Tunnel by Sinclair Noe DOW + 19 = 13,112SPX + 3 = 1417NAS + 17 = 299910 YR YLD -.04 = 1.68%OIL +.85 = 85.71GOLD + 8.10 = 1686.00SILV + .27 = 31.28 Tomorrow it will all be over, maybe; unless, it is too close to call, in which case, it might drag out interminably or it might be decided early tomorrow evening. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll has Obama leading Romney 50% to 46% for the presidency of Ohio. If that holds up, then it’s a done deal; unless it isn’t. I think there might be a light at the end of the tunnel. Election 2012 has been relentless; it seems like it has been going on forever. This is the season of discontent, no matter which side you support. In the October 2008 jobs report the economy lost 500,000. This month we gained about 170,000 and there were positive revisions for the previous two months. The future looks bright, but grim at the same time. A new report from the National Employment Law Project says that since 2001, employment has grown 8.7 percent in lower-wage jobs and 6.6 percent in high-wage ones but they’ve fallen more than 7% in mid-wage jobs. The situation since the financial Crisis of 2008 is similar: jobs in the mid-range paying $14 to $21 accounted for 60% of jobs lost but only 22% of the job gained while lower wage jobs paying a median wage …

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Thursday, September 27, 2012 – GDP Dries Up

GDP Dries Up by Sinclair Noe DOW + 72 = 13,485SPX + 13 = 1447NAS + 42 = 313610 YR YLD +.02 = 1.64%OIL + 2.25 = 92.23GOLD + 24.30 = 1778.60SILV + .67 = 34.76PLAT + 13.00 = 1654.00 This economics stuff is an imprecise, semi-dismal, pseudo-science. This morning the Bureau of Labor Stats released the preliminary annual benchmark revision to the jobs report. Seems there were an additional 386,000 jobs as of March 2012. They’ll revise the numbers again in February. The Commerce Department reports the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.3% in the second quarter; that’s down from 2% in the first quarter; and that’s down from 4.1% in the fourth quarter of last year. The results were worse than anticipated. The Bureau of Economic Analysis made an initial guess that GDP grew at a 1.7% pace, then they revise the guess down to 1.5%, then they make a third and final guess which was today’s 1.3% number. We can talk about politicians, corporations, workers, the Fed, and lots of other factors but one of the most important factors in the lower GDP number was the weather. The Midwest drought wasn’t the only thing that caused the government to change its GDP estimates. Figures for consumer spending and business investment also were revised down, along with the contribution to GDP of net exports.A drop in farm inventories knocked about 0.2 percentage points from the GDP. And we’re just feeling the initial impact of the …

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Tuesday, September 25, 2012 – Fed Good at Growing Inequality

Fed Good at Growing Inequality by Sinclair Noe DOW – 101 = 13,457SPX – 15 = 1441NAS – 43 = 311710 YR YLD -.04 = 1.68%OIL – .51 = 90.86GOLD – 3.90 = 1761.60SILV – .23 = 33.84PLAT + 8.00 = 1634.00 Let’s start with a few economic reports. Case Shiller’s Index of existing home sales posted a 1.6% increase in July; all 20 cities in the index saw housing prices rise; it’s the fourth month of price increases, and the past 12 months are now showing increases. This is very positive news for housing. Pricesin Phoenix gained 2.2% to take the year-on-year increase to 16.6%, by far the strongest advance of any major metropolitan area. Los Angeles saw a 1.3% gain, and the year-over-year comparison has now turned positive by 0.4%. The consumer-confidence index increased to 70.3 in September, the highest level since February. Generally when the economy is growing at a good clip, confidence readings reach at least 90. September expectations increased for employment and business conditions, while consumers’ views on the present situation also rose. One of the big factors affecting the optimistic outlook is the turn in the housing market.  In August, the dividend-reinvested S&P 500 was up some 18% year-on-year. The combination of positive returns on stocks and real estate hasn’t been this good since 2006. Any economic gains are still fragile but you take whatever positives you can find. Both consumer-confidence measures, the one conducted by the University of Michigan and the one done …

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Wednesday, July 4, 2012 – I Gotta Believe It’s Getting Better – Happy 4th

A couple of weeks back I foolishly said I thought things were getting better. Later that day, I was told I was wrong; things are not getting better.I think I can see the argument. It’s an old argument; It was the Best of Times, It was the worst of times. The economy is on the edge of collapse; the so-called fiscal cliff. Europe  is ready for collapse. Sure, there is plenty that is wrong. So, I tried to put together some sort of list of how things are better or worse. I’ve been saying that the economy is in a small “d” depression for the past 4 years. Unemployment is 8.2%, slightly less than the 8.5% rate of February 2009. The numbers are surely under-reported. This is the “new normal”. Drive through any town in America and you can see the businesses that have been shuttered, and the homes that have been foreclosed. We have a debt problem. Today, with a population of 305 million and debt of $16 trillion, it works out to about $52,000 per person… but that leaves out all the unfunded liabilities (which didn’t exist in years past) which add up to more than $75 trillion now, meaning a total debt and liabilities of $250,000 per person in the US.And personal privacy has been effectively shredded. No-knock warrant-less raids are the new norm; and the government is now using drones to spy on citizens; The United States has 5% of the world’s population and 25% of the world’s …

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Wednesday, June 20, 2012 – A Twisted World – by Sinclair Noe

DOW  – 12 = 12,824SPX – 2= 1355NAS +0.69 = 293010 YR YLD +.02 = 1.64%OIL – 3.25 = 81.10GOLD – 11.10 = 1607.80SILV – .30 = 28.22PLAT – 23.00 = 1464.00Quite frankly the Federal Reserve FOMC meetings have become a bit too predictable. They didn’t lower interest rates because rates are already at zero. They didn’t raise interest rates because that would be a total freak out and the financial markets would collapse. The Fed does not have an exit plan from their zero interest rate policy. They didn’t announce QE3 because that would be a blatant destruction of the currency which would send the price of gold soaring; also because they are holding back and waiting just in case Europe hits the self destruct button. The Fed expanded Operation Twist by $267 billion, meaning it will sell short-term securities and buy long-term ones in an effort to keep borrowing costs down. The program, which was due to expire this month, will now run through the end of the year. Operation Twist is a wash; it really doesn’t cost anything; they buy, they sell, it all equals out. The next question is whether Operation Twist actually does anything. Here the results are inconclusive. Long term rates are at historic lows but we don’t know if rates would have been low even without Operation Twist. Perhaps the most pathetic part of the FOMC statement was this: “Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The …

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Wednesday, April 25, 2012 – Bernanke Approximately Right, UK Approximately Wrong, Students Approximately Taxed

DOW + 89 = 13,090 SPX + 18 = 1390NAS + 68 = 302910 YR YLD +.02 = 1.98%OIL -.11 = 104.01GOLD + 2.80 = 1645.30SILV – .12 = 30.81PLAT + 8.00 = 1559.00 If you own shares in Apple, congratulations. It gained nearly $50 to finish at $610, up nearly 9%. If you don’t own Apple, don’t worry about it, don’t chase it. Realize that a big chunk of the move today for the broader market, was really just Apple, but it was a good day, with gainers outpacing losers by 3 to 1. The Federal Reserve wrapped up their FOMC meeting and announced no changes. Wow, what a surprise. The Fed didn’t raise rates – they can’t. They didn’t lower rates – they can’t. They didn’t announce QE3, but they didn’t take it off the table. Bernanke told reporters at a press conference, “We see monetary policy as being approximately in the right place at this point.” He said, “Our intention is to maintain highly accommodative stance of policy for the foreseeable future.” Kind of like QE in Perpetuity. Bernanke stressed that the Fed could purchase more assets if it looked like the economy needed help, but he said some ways to boost the economy, like tolerating higher inflation, would be “reckless.” At the same time, he said it was too early to raise rates, “I think it’s a little premature to declare victory. I think that keeping interest rates low is still appropriate for our economy.” The …

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