Financial Review

Thursday Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 27 = 17,730 SPX – 0.64 = 2076 NAS – 3 = 5009 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.39% OIL – .03 = 56.93 GOLD – 2.60 = 1166.70 SILV + .13 = 15.78   Normally, we get the jobs report on the first Friday of the month, but the stock and bond markets will be closed tomorrow for the 4th of  July holiday; so, it’s a Jobs Report Thursday.   The US economy created 223,000 new jobs in June. The unemployment rate dropped from 5.5% to 5.3%; that’s the lowest level in 7 years. Employment gains for May and April were revised lower by a combined 60,000.  Most estimates were calling for 225,000 new jobs last month, so today’s report was right in line. Total employment is now 3.5 million above the previous peak.  Total employment is up 12.2 million from the employment recession low. The economy has produced at least 200,000 jobs in 13 of the last 15 months.  The economy added 2.9 million jobs in the past 12 months.   The participation rate – the percentage of workers in a job or actively seeking a job – dropped three ticks to 62.6%, as 432,000 people dropped out of the labor pool. And this explains why the unemployment rate dropped to 5.3%, because fewer people were looking for work.  Part of the reason may be demographics, …

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Financial Review

Good Jobs Report, Not Liftoff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-05-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 56 = 17,849 SPX – 3 = 2092 NAS + 9 = 5068 10 YR YLD + .10 = 2.40% OIL + .96 = 58.96 GOLD – 4.10 = 1173.30 SILV + .05 = 16.23   The economy added 280,000 jobs in May. The unemployment rate increased to 5.5% as more people entered the labor force. Average hourly earnings rose by 8 cents to $24.96. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.3 percent. March and April were revised up by a combined 32,000 jobs. The headline of 280,000 jobs added in May is the strongest number since December. April’s numbers were revised down by 2,000 to 221,000, and March was revised up from 85,000 to 119,000 (so it went from very bad to just a little bad). The economy has added an average of 217,000 jobs a month so far this year. Still, job creation has also slowed from the second half of 2014, when the economy added an average of 281,000 jobs a month. The US economy has recorded 63 straight months of private sector jobs growth. Previous record was 51 months from 1996-2000. Total employment is now up 12 million from the employment recession low and up 3.3 million from the previous peak. Private employment is up 12.6 million from the employment recession low and up 3.8 million from the previous peak. Typically, …

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Financial Review

April Jobs Report in Moderation

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 267 = 18,191 SPX + 28 = 2116 NAS + 58 = 5003 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.15% OIL + .49 = 59.43 GOLD SILV   The economy added 223,000 new jobs in April. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.4% from 5.5% to mark the lowest level since mid-2008. The results were fairly close to estimates. Not too much, not too little. Wall Street actually liked the “Goldilocks” report and the Dow jumped to triple digit gains; the bond market, which is usually only happy when it rains saw strong initial selling, but then pushed bond yields slightly lower, and the dollar spiked briefly then held near lower levels. Once again we are reminded that the jobs report is probably the single most important economic report to follow because it affects almost everything else in the economy.   The number of jobs added in March was revised down to 85,000 from 126,000, reflecting the smallest increase in almost three years. The February jobs report was revised higher by 2,000 from 264,000 to 266,000. Payrolls for February and March were revised down by a combined 39,000. Typically, revisions add to prior months numbers. In 2014, for example, the government upgraded every monthly employment report except for one to show stronger job creation that originally estimated. The past three months have delivered average job gains of just over …

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Financial Review

Job Seekers Find Their Place Again

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 60 = 17,824 SPX – 7 = 2055 NAS – 20 = 4744 10 YR YLD + .12 = 1.94% OIL + 1.60 = 52.08 GOLD – 31.20 = 1234.30 SILV – .54 = 16.79   The U.S. added 257,000 new jobs in January. The unemployment rate edged up to 5.7% from 5.6%, but that’s because more people looked for jobs. The January report topped expectations of 230,000 to 245,000 new jobs.   The Labor Force Participation Rate increased 0.2% to 62.9%. The Labor Department’s survey of households, used to derive the unemployment rate, showed about 1.05 million people entered the labor force and 759,000 found work. These numbers also reflect new estimates on the size of the population. Even as the labor-force participation rate rose last month, it’s held to roughly the same level for the past year and a half. The hope is that there is a trend developing of more people looking for work. Consumers believe job prospects have improved. That perception was evident in last week’s confidence report that showed a jump in the number of consumers who think jobs were “plentiful” last month.  Better confidence in job availability should lead to a jump in the number of people quitting. That’s one data series the Fed tracks as a sign of labor-market tightening beyond what the jobless rate says.   The economy has now …

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Financial Review

The December Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 170 = 17,737 SPX – 17 = 2044 NAS – 32 = 4704 10 YR YLD – .05 = 1.97% OIL – .54 = 48.25 GOLD + 14.50 = 1224.40 SILV + .14 = 16.62 Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports on total nonfarm payroll employment. The Jobs Report is usually released on the first Friday of each month. Last Friday was still considered part of the holidays, so we got the report this morning. In December the economy added 252,000 net new jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.6% from 5.8%. Job gains from November and October were revised higher by 50,000 additional jobs. November now posted 353,000 jobs, and October revised up to 261,000. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, construction, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing. The economy has now added 200,000 or more jobs each month for the past 11 consecutive months. 2014 was the best year for total employment since 1999, and the best year for private employment since 1997. And for the past 3 months we’ve average 289,000, which is about as good as I can recall. Private-sector employment, which in December clocked in at 118 million, has grown 10.4% from its 2009 low. The nation has gained back all the jobs it lost during the recession, and added some more. The economy gained …

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Financial Review

November Jobs Report – Progress Not Perfection

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-05-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:19 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 58 = 17,985 SPX + 3 = 2075 NAS + 11 = 4780 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.31% OIL – 1.12 = 65.69 GOLD – 15.50 = 1192.00 SILV – .20 = 16.39 Record highs for the Dow and the S&P 500. For the past week I’ve been telling you we could see a wild number on the jobs report. We did. The economy added 321,000 net new jobs in November. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.8%. Job gains for September and October were revised higher. September was revised from 256,000 to 271,000, and the change for October was revised from 214,000 to 243,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 44,000 more than previously reported. And that pushes the 3 month average up to about 277,000 jobs per month. November marked the biggest monthly jobs gain since January 2012. So far in 2014 the economy has gained an average of 241,000 jobs a month. This was the tenth consecutive month of job gains greater than 200,000, and an all-time record 50th consecutive month of job gains. Total employment is now 1.7 million above the previous peak. Total employment is up 10.4 million from the employment recession low. So far this year, the United States has added some 2.65 million jobs, putting the country on track for its best year of …

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Financial Review

Everything You Need to Know About the Jobs Report

http://SINCLAIR_NOE_-_SEG_1_-_09-05-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review 09-05-2014 DOW + 67 = 17,137 SPX + 10 = 2007.71 (record) NAS + 20 = 4582 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.46% OIL – 1.00 = 93.45 GOLD + 7.50 = 1269.40 SILV + .13 = 19.29 The S&P 500 index closed at a record high; the Dow Industrials closed just short of a record high. The S&P 500 and the Dow recorded their fifth consecutive weekly gains. For the week, the Dow and the S&P each gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq rose 0.06%. Today is a jobs report Friday. In August, the economy added 142,000 net new jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.1%. This was a weaker than expected report. The economy had been averaging more than 200,000 new jobs a month for the past 6 months. Economists expected somewhere around 220,000 to 230,000 new jobs. Employment gains for July and June were lowered by a combined 28,000; June was revised from 298,000 to 267,000, and the change for July was revised from 209,000 to 212,000. The August report will likely be revised as well. Each job report starts with an initial estimate on the first Friday of the month, followed by two revisions. The month of August is prone to sharp revisions; over the past 5 years, the difference between the first and third estimates have averaged more than 70,000 per month; and each of the past …

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Financial Review

Friday, June 06, 2014 – Jobs Report Friday

Jobs Report Friday by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 88 = 16,924 SPX + 8 = 1949 NAS + 25 = 4321 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.59% OIL + .31 = 102.79 GOLD – .90 = 1253.30 SILV – .02 = 19.11   Another record high close for the Dow Industrial Average and the S&P 500.   It’s said that it takes a war to end a war; 70 years ago, 150,000 soldiers invaded Normandy, and it’s estimated that about 4,400 lost their lives in the biggest military assault in history, D-Day. There were ceremonies on the beach today, as well as locations around the world, to honor the soldiers lost and the veterans still with us; their numbers are dwindling with the passage of time, but about 3,000 made the pilgrimage to Normandy today.  For the rest of us, it’s hard to imagine what happened 70 years ago, but whatever difficulties we may face in our day to day lives seem small compared with what those men faced. This is a special day, one that should never be forgotten.   Each month we analyze the jobs report. The jobs number came in about as expected. Non-farm payrolls added 217,000 jobs in May. The unemployment rate, which is drawn from a different survey of households, remained unchanged at 6.3%.   April’s employment numbers were revised down to 282,000 jobs added from 288,000. March payroll figures were not revised, remaining at 203,000 jobs added. This is the fourth consecutive …

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Financial Review

Financial Review for Friday, May 02, 2014 – April Jobs Report

April Jobs Report by Sinclair Noe DOW – 45 = 16,512SPX – 2 = 1881NAS – 3 = 412310 YR YLD – .01 = 2.59%OIL + .57 = 99.99GOLD + 15.70 = 1301.60SILV + .44 = 19.56 Today is another Jobs Report Friday. We will go into quite a bit of detail here because really, most everything we talk about in regard to economics begins with work and jobs. It is my hope that you will join us here on the first Friday of each month to get your comprehensive, fact based coverage of the jobs report. Last month the economy added 288,000 net new jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.3%. April marked the biggest monthly gain in jobs since January 2012, when the economy added 360,000 jobs. Employment gains for February and March were revised higher by a combined 36,000; that raised the monthly average to 214,000 jobs a month since the start of the year. Through the first 4 months of 2014, the economy has added 857,000 payroll jobs, slightly better than the first 4 months of 2013, despite the harsh winter this year. In the current 58 month expansion, employers have added more than 200,000 jobs per month in 38% of the months. Current job creation performance is stronger than it was in the business-cycle expansion that occurred during the recovery in the early 2000s, even when a real estate construction bubble fueled growth.  Today’s job creation pace lags well behind previous recent economic recoveries, …

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Uncategorized

Friday, April 04, 2014 – The March Jobs Report

The March Jobs Reportby Sinclair Noe DOW – 159 = 16,412SPX – 23 = 1865NAS – 110 = 4127 (-2.6%)10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.73%OIL + .77 = 101.06GOLD + 15.50 = 1303.30SILV + .14 = 20.06 Today is a jobs report Friday. Let’s get geeky. The Labor Department reported nonfarm payrolls increased by 192,000 jobs last month after rising by 197,000 in February (that’s revised from 175,000). The prior 2 months were revised to show 37,000 more jobs than previously estimated; the revisions indicate that the bad winter weather was not a huge problem for the labor market; it did have an effect but not huge, and we certainly shouldn’t hear any more weather related excuses. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7% as more people were looking for jobs. The consensus estimate was 200,000 jobs, so the figures were a little below expectations. Private employment rose to 116.09 million, finally moving beyond the previous high of 115.98 million recorded at the very start of the recession in January 2008.Total employment is just a little below the pre-financial crisis days; we still have about 437,000 fewer jobs than the peak in 2008, but private employment is now above the peak by 110,000 and at a new all-time high; the difference is that more than a half million government jobs have been cut during that time; also, the population and the labor force has grown over the past 6 years, so the unemployment rate remains fairly high. And the …

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