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Friday, June 07, 2013 – The Ministry of Truth is Now Accepting Job Applications

The Ministry of Truth is Now Accepting Job Applications by Sinclair Noe DOW + 207 = 15,248SPX + 20 = 1643NAS + 45 = 3469 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.16%OIL + 1.17 = 95.93GOLD – 29.10 = 1385.60SILV – .90 = 21.79 It’s the first Friday of the month and so today we start with the jobs report. The economy added 175,000 net new jobs in May. The unemployment rate moved up to 7.6% from 7.5%. I’ll explain how that works in just a moment. The March and April jobs numbers were revised slightly, and the final numbers are 12,000 less than previously reported. The headline number was slightly above expectations of 165,000 jobs added. So, another month of moderate job growth, why did the unemployment rate go up? More people jumped into the labor pool, looking for work. The participation rate increased to 63.4% in May from 63.3% in April. This is a measure of the working age population in the labor force, and historically this number is closer to 66%; some of the decline is due to people who have dropped out of the labor pool, but some of the decline is due to demographics. About 420,000 people got back into the market for a job and 319,000 found a job, but the additional 101,000 who are now in the market for a job and did not find work – that pushed the unemployment rate higher. There are still 7.9 million involuntary part time workers, basically …

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Friday, May 03, 2013 – Jobs on the First Friday in May

Jobs on the First Friday in May by Sinclair Noe DOW + 142 = 14,873SPX + 16 = 1614NAS + 38 = 337810 YR YLD + .12 = 1.75%OIL + 1.47 = 95.46GOLD + 3.30 = 1471.70SILV + .30 = 24.23 If you’ve been a regular listener over the years you know that I get a little wonkish on the first Friday of each month. That’s the day we get the monthly jobs report. I consider this to be one of the most important economic reports and so I spend a little extra time covering it. Stick around, and we’ll make you an expert. Today, the Labor Department reports there were 165,000 net jobs added to the economy in April. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.5%, down from 7.6% in March; that’s the lowest level since December 2008. The number of jobs added beat estimates of a gain of 135,000 to around 155,000. The number of new jobs created in March was revised up to 138,000 from 88,000, while February’s figure was revised up to 332,000 from 268,000.With the revision, the 332,000 jobs gained in February was the biggest monthly gain in jobs since November 2005. So, the economy created 114,000 additional jobs in March and February than initially estimated.The average for the past three months is about 211,000 jobs. It is widely estimated that the economy needs to add 250,000 over an extended period of time in order to see the unemployment rate drop below 6%. The number of …

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Friday, October, 5, 2012 – Slow, Steady, Weak, Uncooked Growth in Jobs Report

Slow, Steady, Weak, Uncooked Growth in Jobs Report by Sinclair Noe DOW + 34 = 13,610SPX -0.47 = 1460NAS – 13 = 3136 10 YR YLD +.07 = 1.73%OIL – 1.79 = 89.92GOLD – 9.00 = 1782.30 SILV – .46 = 34.61PLAT – 13.00 = 1710.00 The first Friday of each month brings the jobs report and it is always important economic data. This is the first Friday in October, in an election year; so, it is really big news. We’ve discussed at great length that the jobs report is imperfect; even after revisions, the report is imperfect. Still, the report provides a manner of comparison, and it is the best we have. It provides an apples to apples comparison. The economy added 114,000 jobs in September. The unemployment rate fell to 7.8% from 8.1% The unemployment rate is the lowest since 2009, and the first time the rate has dropped under 8% during the Obama administration. The private sector has now added jobs for 31 consecutive months. Still, 114,000 new jobs would have to be considered weak growth. The best guesses are that the economy would have to generate at least 250,000 jobs each month for several years to reduce unemployment to around 6%. So, the first question is why did the unemployment rate drop when the number of new jobs was only showing weak growth? The Labor Department revised employment figures for August and July to show somewhat faster job growth in late summer, mostly because of government …

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