Financial Review

Jobs Report Friday

The economy added only 20,000 new jobs in February. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.8% from 4%. Today, we talk with Mark Hamrick, Senior Financial Analyst with www.Bankrate.com. Later, a conversation with economics professor Dr. Lee McPheters from ASU. Also, Joe Mizzi from Robert Half International.

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Financial Review

November Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-07-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Economy adds 155,000 jobs in November. Unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%. U6 jumps to 7.6%. slightly weak report but not enough to change Fed. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-07-2018

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Financial Review

June Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-08-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS287,000 new jobs in June. Unemployment rate up to 4.9%. Smoothing out the numbers. Wages inch higher. The impact of minimum wage. The need for job training. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-08-2016

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Financial Review

Basic Economics – Unemployment

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_2-03-02-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 7:10 — 3.3MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSIt has come to my attention that we sometimes talk about certain things on the Financial Review that can be confusing to some people, so today we embark on what will become a series of segments that I call, “What you need to know about basic economics.”   Now you may have heard economics referred to as the dismal science, but it really is about much more than just statistics and numbers. On a more basic level, economics is the study of people: how we interact, how we work, how people succeed or fail, how we play games, how we negotiate, and how we are motivated to get out of bed each day.  It looks at what makes us happy and content, and can even help us understand how mankind has progressed over generation to become more healthy and prosperous than ever before. So, economics encompasses history, psychology, politics, and a few statistics thrown in to make it more believable.   Speaking of politics, you may have noticed that this is campaign season, and one of the first and most important promises you hear from politicians is that they want to create jobs for everybody. You will hear the same pledge from all political parties, not just in the US but around the world. And in economics, everything comes back to jobs and unemployment. However much attention the experts and politicians pay to gross …

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Financial Review

Countdown to Liftoff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 31 = 17,935 SPX + 4 = 2100 NAS + 9 = 5064 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.31% OIL – .22 = 59.75 GOLD + 3.60 = 1186.10 SILV + 11 = 16.22   The Fed has wrapped up its June FOMC meeting. No surprises. The economy is getting better, so they say. While the Fed says they have made “considerable progress” toward its goal of maximum employment, “the committee wants to see evidence of some further progress.” They are not hiking rates right now; they will probably hike rates in September, but don’t worry about the exact date because it will be so small and gradual you will hardly notice. That’s the quick version from the Fed.   Further wage and job gains could give Fed officials confidence that inflation, which has lingered below their 2 percent goal for three years, is likely to move higher. Growth is poised to pick up as consumers start spending a windfall from lower gasoline prices, even though that hasn’t happened yet. The economy is likely to expand at a 2.5 percent annual pace in the second quarter after shrinking 0.7 percent in the previous three months. Officials now expect the economy to grow this year between 1.8 percent and 2 percent. Just a few months ago, in March, they had predicted growth of 2.3 percent to …

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Financial Review

Fed Should Avoid Knee Jerk Hikes

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-08-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 106 = 17,852 SPX – 15 = 2060 NAS – 40 = 4740 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.26% OIL – 2.80 = 63.04 GOLD + 11.10 = 1205.20 SILV + .09 = 16.48 No records today. Energy stocks pulled the market lower; 42 of the 43 energy stocks in the S&P 500 posted losses today. Falling oil prices have also hit exchange rates of energy producers, especially in emerging markets. Russia’s ruble continues to slide, and an index tracking 20 key exchange rates has fallen to levels last seen more than a decade ago, down 10.2 percent this year and headed for the biggest annual slide since 2008. While some developing nations may welcome a weaker currency because it makes their exports more competitive, for others the pace of decline is destabilizing their economies by fueling inflation and eroding investor confidence. While the International Monetary Fund expects developing economies to pick up next year, it still sees them falling short of their longer-term growth. The IMF predicts expansion of 4.95 percent across emerging markets in 2015, up from a forecast of 4.43 percent this year and compared with average growth of 6.44 percent over the past decade. Let’s start with a quick recap of Friday’s jobs report. The economy added 321,000 jobs in November, well above estimates, the highest monthly gain since January 2010 and …

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Financial Review

Jobs Report Friday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-07-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS[powerpress Financial Review DOW + 19 = 17,573 SPX + 0.71 = 2031 NAS – 5 = 4632 10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.31% OIL + .60 = 78.51 GOLD + 36.50 = 1178.80 SILV + .32 = 15.85 The economy added 214,000 net new jobs in October. The unemployment rate dropped from 5.9% to 5.8%. The 5.8 percent official unemployment rate is the lowest since the summer of 2008. The August report was revised higher to 203,000 and the September report was revised higher to 256,000; for a net increase of 31,000 jobs added from revisions. Employment is now up 2.64 million year-over-year, and up 2.3 million year to date. So far in 2014 the US has gained an average of 229,000 jobs a month, the fastest pace since 1999. October was the ninth consecutive month of 200,000 or more jobs gained, and that hasn’t happened since 1994. Total employment is up 10 million from the employment recession low and up 1.3 million from the previous peak; although it should be noted that full-time employment has not returned to the previous peak, while part-time employment is quite a bit higher than the peak. Private employment is up 10.6 million from the employment recession low. This latest report represents 56 consecutive months of private-sector job growth, which represents the longest streak in US history, but it isn’t the strongest streak of job growth. …

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Financial Review

Milk and Cookies in the Land of No Satisfaction

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-05-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 100 = 17,484 SPX + 11 = 2023 NAS – 2 = 4620 10 YR YLD un = 2.35% OIL + 1.69 = 78.88 GOLD – 28.20 = 1141.00 SILV – .72 = 15.42 Record highs for the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500. The midterm election is history, and it was a big night for the GOP. Republicans will have at least 52 Senate seats, a gain of 7. In the House, the GOP will now have at least 243 seats, a gain of 14. The GOP also gained 2 net governorships. So it was a big night. However, Obama was not on the ballot, even though some of the campaign ads made it sound that way; he’s got 2 more years and he still has veto power. It takes a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate to override a veto. Republicans have nowhere near two-thirds of either chamber. So, get ready for 2 more years of gridlock. One takeaway is that people are not satisfied with the economic progress of the past few years. While Wall Street is at record highs and the unemployment rate has dropped, that just isn’t enough. Fewer people participated in stock market gains and even though more people have jobs, the jobs aren’t paying what they used to. It doesn’t mean the numbers are wrong; the Dow closed at 17,484 and …

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Financial Review

The Only Winner is Gravity

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-09-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 334 = 16,659 SPX– 40 = 1928 NAS – 90 =4378 10 YR YLD un 2.33% OIL – 2.96 = 84.35 GOLD + 2.10 = 1224.60 SILV – .03 = 17.45 Triple-digit swings in the stock market have become common in recent days. Just this week, the Dow jumped 274 points Wednesday, reversing a 272-point decline on Tuesday. We’ll talk about volatility in just a moment. In economic news: Germany’s exports sank 5.8 percent in August, the biggest monthly drop in five years. The figure raised concerns that Europe’s largest economy may fall into recession. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi says Europe’s problems are structural, not cyclical and there can be no recovery without reforms. Draghi was speaking in New York; he said the Euro banking sector is still going through deleveraging; they are not lending; and there are limits to what the ECB can do to produce growth. And deflation is highly contagious. The number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits in the first week of October edged down by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 287,000, holding below 300,000 for the fourth straight week. Jobless claims are now 21% lower compared to one year ago. What we are starting to see is that so many businesses fired workers during the downturn and they have been very slow to rehire or hire new workers, which means not …

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Financial Review

Financial Review for Friday, May 02, 2014 – April Jobs Report

April Jobs Report by Sinclair Noe DOW – 45 = 16,512SPX – 2 = 1881NAS – 3 = 412310 YR YLD – .01 = 2.59%OIL + .57 = 99.99GOLD + 15.70 = 1301.60SILV + .44 = 19.56 Today is another Jobs Report Friday. We will go into quite a bit of detail here because really, most everything we talk about in regard to economics begins with work and jobs. It is my hope that you will join us here on the first Friday of each month to get your comprehensive, fact based coverage of the jobs report. Last month the economy added 288,000 net new jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.3%. April marked the biggest monthly gain in jobs since January 2012, when the economy added 360,000 jobs. Employment gains for February and March were revised higher by a combined 36,000; that raised the monthly average to 214,000 jobs a month since the start of the year. Through the first 4 months of 2014, the economy has added 857,000 payroll jobs, slightly better than the first 4 months of 2013, despite the harsh winter this year. In the current 58 month expansion, employers have added more than 200,000 jobs per month in 38% of the months. Current job creation performance is stronger than it was in the business-cycle expansion that occurred during the recovery in the early 2000s, even when a real estate construction bubble fueled growth.  Today’s job creation pace lags well behind previous recent economic recoveries, …

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Financial Review

Thursday, April 17, 2014 – The Growth Industry for the Next 20 Years

The Growth Industry for the Next 20 Years by Sinclair Noe DOW – 16 = 16,408SPX + 2 = 1864NAS + 9 = 409510 YR YLD + .08 = 2.72%OIL + .83 = 104.59GOLD – 7.60 = 1295.60SILV + .02 = 19.75 Stocks ended a holiday-shortened week with mixed results. Stock markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of Good Friday. The S&P 500 had its best week since last July. For the week, the Dow rose 2.4%, the S&P 500 added 2.7% and the Nasdaq advanced 2.4%. With less than one-fifth of S&P 500 companies having reported results so far, about 63% have topped earnings expectations and 52% have topped revenue expectations. Of course that’s part of the dance between corporations and analysts, but it does move stock prices. For example, Goldman Sachs reported an 11% drop in quarterly profit and revenue fell 8%, but the results were better than estimates and share price was higher on the day.  Among the other earnings related movers today, Google, IBM, Mattel, and United Health were down on poor earnings news, while Morgan Stanley, GE and Pepsi moved higher. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose less than expected in the latest week and came near pre-recession levels. The Labor Department also reports weekly earnings of the typical full-time worker rose 3% in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2008. Median earnings came in at $796, that’s the point where half of …

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Monday, March 10, 2014 – Disconnected

Disconnectedby Sinclair Noe DOW – 34 = 16,418SPX – 0.87 = 1877NAS – 1 = 433410 YR YLD – .01 = 2.78%OIL – 1.64 = 100.94GOLD + .30 = 1340.80SILV – .05 = 20.94 This is a pretty quiet week for economic data; Thursday brings a report on February retail sales; we’ll also see reports Friday on inflation at the wholesale level and on consumer sentiment. That’s about it. Today, we ran across the Economic Report of the President, compiled by the White House Council of Economic Advisors, which discusses the progress of the recovery. The economic report serves as the administration’s analysis of the president’s $3.9 trillion budget, which he unveiled last week. The president’s top economic advisors say the nation is on track to make economic progress over the next two years, but say it would do even better if Congress would enact the additional spending he proposed in his most recent budget. Yea, that’s not going to happen. Even without new government spending, the economy should pick up a little, in part because the budget cuts moving forward won’t be as bad as what we’ve already seen. The economists think consumer spending has adjusted since the payroll tax cut expired more than a year ago. Increases in housing construction and greater business investments should give the economy a boost as well. The report says gross domestic product should expand by 3.1% this year and 3.4% next year, which would be the best performance since 2005. The economy …

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Friday, March 07, 2014 – Jobs Report Friday and Aiming Higher

Jobs Report Friday and Aiming Higher by Sinclair Noe DOW + 30 = 16,452SPX + 1 = 1878NAS – 15 = 433610 YR YLD + .05 = 2.79%OIL + 1.00 = 102.56GOLD – 9.50 = 1341.90SILV – .51 = 21.03 This is a jobs report Friday. Here’s what you need to know. The economy added 175,000 net new jobs in February; this topped estimates of 150,000. The unemployment rate moved higher to 6.7%, up from 6.6% in January. After two months of very bad jobs reports, we returned to just below average levels of 189,000 per month; not a great showing but not ugly. The December and January reports were revised higher by 25,000 jobs. So why did the unemployment rate go up? The labor pool got bigger; more people were looking for work. The ranks of the short-term unemployed declined by 61,000 to 2.3 million, while the ranks of the  long-term unemployed jumped by 200,000 to 3.85 million, and the labor participation rate held steady at 63%, just above the generational low of 62.8% in December. That seems to be a discrepancy, but the unemployment rate is based on a separate survey of households from the one that tracks hiring by employers, and the household survey showed an increase of 264,000 in the labor force. The participation rate is still well below the range of 66% to 67% where it had been for the past 20 years or so. The unemployment rate went up slightly because that 264,000 gain …

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Thursday, January 09, 2014 – A World Of Central Bankers

A World Of Central Bankers by Sinclair Noe DOW – 17 = 16,444SPX + 0.64 = 1838NAS – 9 = 415610 YR YLD – .03 = 2.96%OIL – .67 = 91.66GOLD + 1.80 = 1228.70SILV + .02 = 19.65 If it’s not one central bank, it’s another. Today the European Central Bank and the Bank of England met to determine monetary policy. Back in November, the ECB cut interest rates to 0.25%, so there were no expectations of further rate cuts in today’s meeting. In Britain, which is outside the euro zone, the Bank of England left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low of 0.5 percent. As the US Federal Reserve has been creating new dollars at the rate of $85 billion a month under Quantitative Easing, the Fed’s balance sheet has been growing, even as the ECB’s balance sheet has been shrinking. And even though the Fed announced it would scale back those purchases by $10 billion a month, that just means the Fed balance sheet will continue growing, just not as fast. Or the bottom line; the Fed is creating money and the ECB is not. Today, Mario Draghi, the president of the ECB said he wanted to “strongly emphasize” his earlier promise to keep monetary policy easy for as long as necessary. And Draghi said the ECB was “ready to consider all available instruments” to address either further weakness in consumer prices or increases in short-term money market rates that could put stress on …

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Wednesday, December 18, 2013 – According to Plan

According to Plan by Sinclair Noe Don’t worry. Everything is going exactly according to plan. The Fed will taper just a little; cutting back to $75 billion a month in Treasury bond and mortgage backed securities; the cuts will trim back equally from both categories. You’ll hardly notice. The Fed said: “In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the committee decided to modestly reduce the pace of its asset purchases.” Great news for people in the hunt for a job; everything is good. And for those of you with two jobs, well your doubled efforts have not gone unnoticed. The Fed expects unemployment to dip to 6.3% to 6.6% by the end of the year, what with more people dropping out of the workforce and the participation rate shrinking. Besides, the current 7% unemployment is apparently just good enough to avoid civil unrest, or as the Fed calls it “progress toward maximum employment.” The central bank also said it “likely will be appropriate” to keep rates near zero “well past the time” that the jobless rate falls below 6.5 percent. Again, this confirms that everything is going exactly according to plan…, for the bankers; for the rest of us – not so much. But if you are a banker, you have to love free money from the Fed. It’s not like they could continue QE forever; they were running out of stuff to buy. The federal deficit has …

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Wednesday, November 20, 2013 – Fed Minutes, Fed Conundrum

Fed Minutes, Fed Conundrum by Sinclair Noe DOW – 66 = 15,900SPX – 6 = 1781NAS – 10 = 392110 YR YLD + .09 = 2.79%OIL – .01 = 93.33GOLD – 32.40 = 1243.80SILV – .49 = 19.95 The Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve policy makers, met October 29-30, and to no one’s surprise they did not change monetary policy. Today, minutes of that meeting were released. The policy makers “generally expected that the data would prove consistent with the Committee’s outlook for ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and would thus warrant trimming the pace of purchases in coming months.” They think the economy is improving, despite the government shutdown and ongoing political dysfunction, the economy is getting better and the FOMC is considering how and when they can exit Quantitative Easing; they would like to scale back $85 billion per month in purchases of Treasuries and mortgage backed securities without triggering a rise in interest rates that could slow economic growth and wipe out gains in the labor market. That is not to say they are ready to raise their Fed Funds target for interest rates. That target has been right at zero and will likely remain at zero for at least a year or more. They want to get out of the bond buying business without the market noticing, and independently pushing interest rates higher. It’ll be a fine trick if they can pull it off. In a speech to the National Economists Club, Ben Bernanke …

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Wednesday, October 30, 2013 – Fed Holds Steady and Floats a Balloon

Fed Holds Steady and Floats a Balloon by Sinclair Noe DOW – 61 = 15,618SPX – 8 = 1763NAS – 21 = 393010 YR YLD + .02 = 2.52%OIL – .85 = 97.35GOLD – 1.40 = 1343.90SILV + .22 = 22.84 Nobody expected the Fed to make any major policy changes at the conclusion of today’s 2-day FOMC meeting. And the Fed surprised no one as they kept their cheap money policy in place. So why are the markets down today, with the Fed continuing its easy money giveaway? I’ll explain in a moment. Language in the October statement mirrored the “moderate pace” of economic improvement that the Fed saw at its last meeting in September. The statement, though, did omit a reference from last month that fiscal tightening could slow growth in jobs and the broader economy. Let’s dig into the Fed statement: …economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Indicators of labor market conditions have shown some further improvement, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Available data suggest that household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Apart from fluctuations due to changes in energy prices, inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. …economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. …

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Wednesday, August 21, 2013 – Ticking Away the Minutes

Ticking Away the Minutes by Sinclair Noe DOW – 105 = 14, 897SPX – 9 = 1642NAS – 13 = 359910 YR YLD + .04 = 2.85%OIL + .04 = 105.00GOLD – 4.20 = 1367,80SILV – .14 – 22.89 Stocks slid, clawed back to breakeven, then sold aggressively into the close. News of the day in the form of FOMC minutes showing policymakers are talking about pulling away the Quantitative Easing punchbowl. The Dow closed below 15,000 for the first time since July 3; the Dow is now down for six sessions; the S&P ended negative, dragged by utilities and financials; techs held up relatively well. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury hit a fresh session high of 2.88%. The dollar held up against most currencies, and most emerging market currencies continued to take a beating. So, what did the Fed say in the FOMC minutes? Nothing unexpected. Policy makers were “broadly comfortable” with Bernanke’s plan to start reducing bond buying later this year if the economy improves, with a few saying tapering might be needed soon. But they weren’t saying they had to taper right this moment. The central bankers did not signal as to whether such a taper of the $85 billion-per-month bond purchase plan would come in September, October or December, the three remaining meeting dates for 2013, but they indicated they would like to have it tapered down by the middle of next year. “A few members emphasized the importance of being patient and evaluating additional …

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Friday, August 02, 2013 – Jobs and Side Bets

Jobs and Side Bets by Sinclair Noe DOW + 30 = 15,684SPX + 2 = 1709NAS + 13 = 368910 YR YLD – .11 = 2.60%OIL – .95 = 106.94GOLD + 4.60 = 1314.50SILV + .26 = 19.99 The stock market started lower, with tepid news on the jobs front, but managed to claw back into positive territory, confirming the perverse Wall Street logic that bad is good. The weakness in the jobs market was seen as proof positive the Fed will continue with QE to infinity and beyond, and talk of taper can be set aside for the next Fed Chairman, whoever he or she may be. The economy added 162,000 jobs last month; that was less than the estimates of 185,000 and less than the recent averages of about 192,000. Also, May and June payroll gains were revised down by 26,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.4% down from 7.6%. This is the lowest level for the unemployment rate since November 2008. Most of the decline in unemployment was due to more people getting jobs but part of it was due to a slight fall off in the labor force, a signal of not-too-strong labor demand, as 37,000 workers dropped out of the labor market. In July, the number of unemployed fell by 263,000 but the number of employed increased by only 227,000.  The participation rate ticked down one-tenth, to 63.4%, lower than it was a year ago at 63.7 %. The participation rate is at its lowest …

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Monday, July 08, 2013 – Nothing Recedes Like Progress

Nothing Recedes Like Progress by Sinclair Noe DOW + 88 = 15,224SPX + 8 = 1640NAS + 5 = 348410 YR YLD – .07 = 2.65% OIL – .17 = 103.05GOLD + 13.50 = 1238.30SILV + .18 = 19.18 Took a little break for the Fourth of July, so we have some catching up to do. Friday morning the jobs report showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 7.6%, even as the economy added 195,000 jobs. Better than expected but not good enough; possibly proving the adage that nothing recedes like progress, or at the very least we know that the path of progress is neither swift nor easy. More than 8 million people are working part-time for economic reasons; nearly 3 million are working in temp jobs; more than 4 million are in the ranks of the long-term unemployed; more than one million are considered discouraged, they’ve just given up I suppose. If the labor market holds steady and job creation continues at the current rate, the unemployment rate will dip below 7 percent sometime in mid- 2014; by which point the majority of American workers will be part-time. We really should be adding more than 300,000 jobs a month, not fewer than 200,000. As the Economic Policy Institute points out, we would need more than five years of job growth at this rate to get back to the level of unemployment that prevailed before the Great Recession. Still, the 195,000 new jobs should boost expectations for growth and inflation, …

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