Financial Review

You’re Fired

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-09-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..Comey fired. All calm on the Wall Street front – too calm. Fedspeak: some economic indicators are flashing yellow; beware Fannie and Freddie. New Moon rising in South Korea. Earnings update. Spirit in a fight with pilots and customers. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-09-2017

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Financial Review

Very, Very Quiet

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-23-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSS&P and Nasdaq hit intra-day highs but the markets are still too quiet. Eurozone and UK show strength. Online retail clicks. Home builders finally figure out what to build and it is selling. Uber’s world domination. Fast and electric. GE dredges up old dirt. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-23-2016

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Financial Review

Hot Fun in the Summertime

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-11-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 85 = 18,105 SPX – 10 = 2105 NAS – 9 = 4993 10 YR YLD + .12 = 2.27 OIL – .10 = 59.29 GOLD – 4.00 = 1184.50 SILV – .13 = 16.38   The S&P 500 Index went up to 2117.69, it sat there for a couple of seconds then fell; the reason this is important, or not, is because 2117.69 is the record high from April 24; also, last Friday, the S&P hit 2117.66 for an intraday high. It has been at or near this level several times in the past 3 months, but it can’t break through. Meanwhile, about $100 million in options on the VIX changed hands at 12:16:04 this afternoon; that’s a little more than a half day’s normal volume in a split second. The VIX is the Volatility Index. Just over 1 million contracts were traded. The trades were spread among four contracts that pay off at different dates and prices, say if the VIX rises to 17 by June or 23 by July. We don’t know who made the trade, but somebody is betting things will get hot this summer.   On Friday, the Jobs Report showed the economy added 223,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4%. We’ll get more information on the labor market tomorrow with the JOLT survey, which takes a look at job openings …

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Financial Review

Strange Bedfellows

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-10-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 268 = 17,533 SPX – 33 = 2026 NAS – 82 = 4684 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.17% OIL – 2.64 = 61.18 GOLD – 6.30 = 1227.10 SILV – -.05 = 17.16 Well, that was ugly. This is why we enjoy milk and cookies while we can. We’ve seen a lot of record highs in the major indices this year, but they remain rare birds. When we fall from record highs the drop can be fast, as it was today. The worst day since the start of October; wiping out gains from the past month. The month of December has brought positive returns to the Dow every single year for the last five consecutive years. As you might imagine, there’s a lot of pressure to make it six. And it might still happen, despite the past couple of days. Still it’s a good reminder to stay awake through the holidays, keep your stop loss in place, however you employ your stop loss; and if you don’t have a stop loss it is time to wake up and smell the coffee. Beyond that, it was just an ugly day, with decliners beating advancing issues 4 to 1. All 10 S&P industry sectors were down, with the energy sector down 3.3% as oil prices continue their slide. Brent crude dropped to $63.56, a 5 year low; and …

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Financial Review

Forget Complacency

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-13-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 223 = 16,321 SPX – 31 = 1874 NAS – 62 = 4213 10 YR YLD closed 2.28% OIL – .69 = 85.05 GOLD + 14.10 = 1238.10 SILV + .10 = 17.60 The major indices were up and then down; small moves earlier in the session; then, in the final hour stocks slipped and kept falling. The S&P 500 has fallen 6.8 percent from its Sept. 18 record, making this the worst pullback in two-and-a-half years. The Russell 2000 sank 4.7 percent last week. The small-cap index entered a correction after sliding more than 10 percent from an all-time high in March. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 5.5 percent from its record last month, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has slumped 8.3 percent from a 14-year high reached in September. The Volatility Index, or VIX, rose 13 percent today to 24, the highest level since June 2012. Forget complacency. The final hour collapse coincided with a report that an Emirates Airline plane in Boston was surrounded by medical crews and they removed five passengers over concerns about Ebola. But there is more to today’s trading than an Ebola scare. Oil prices continued to slide. Saudi Arabia is saying they are comfortable with oil prices in the sub-$90 range. The Saudis don’t necessarily want prices to slide further, but they are unwilling to shoulder production cuts unilaterally and they …

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Financial Review

The Only Winner is Gravity

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-09-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 334 = 16,659 SPX– 40 = 1928 NAS – 90 =4378 10 YR YLD un 2.33% OIL – 2.96 = 84.35 GOLD + 2.10 = 1224.60 SILV – .03 = 17.45 Triple-digit swings in the stock market have become common in recent days. Just this week, the Dow jumped 274 points Wednesday, reversing a 272-point decline on Tuesday. We’ll talk about volatility in just a moment. In economic news: Germany’s exports sank 5.8 percent in August, the biggest monthly drop in five years. The figure raised concerns that Europe’s largest economy may fall into recession. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi says Europe’s problems are structural, not cyclical and there can be no recovery without reforms. Draghi was speaking in New York; he said the Euro banking sector is still going through deleveraging; they are not lending; and there are limits to what the ECB can do to produce growth. And deflation is highly contagious. The number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits in the first week of October edged down by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 287,000, holding below 300,000 for the fourth straight week. Jobless claims are now 21% lower compared to one year ago. What we are starting to see is that so many businesses fired workers during the downturn and they have been very slow to rehire or hire new workers, which means not many …

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Financial Review

Send Thank You Notes to Janet

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-08-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 274 = 16,994 SPX + 33 = 1968 NAS + 83 = 4468 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.33% OIL – 1.23 = 87.62 GOLD + 13.20 = 1222.50 SILV + .19 = 17.48 Volatility has kicked into high gear. Yesterday the VIX, the Volatility Index was up 11%, and today it dropped 12%. The Dow has had moves of 200 points or more five times in the last 10 days. There have only been 10 other days this year when the index has made moves of that magnitude. Yesterday was an ugly decline and today, stocks started drifting lower, and then suddenly, dramatically, jumped higher; by the closing bell it was the best day of the year. Send your thank you notes to Janet Yellen. Pause for just a moment and think about what has been driving the markets for the past 5 years. Certainly, there are many factors but a big factor would have to be Federal Reserve monetary policy. Yesterday stocks looked like they were going to hell in a hand basket, and today the Fed’s FOMC minutes were released and the markets were revived as if they’d been given a big old hypodermic full of adrenaline straight to the heart. We all know the Fed is ending its bond buying crusade this month, and the open question has been when they will raise interest rates. The …

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Financial Review

Monday, June 09, 2014 – Record Highs and a Few Crumbs

Record Highs and a Few Crumbs by Sinclair Noe DOW + 18 = 16,943 SPX + 1 = 1951 NAS + 14 = 4336 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.61% OIL + 1.73 = 104.39 GOLD – .30 = 1253.00 SILV + .05 = 19.16   The major indices are now up for 4 consecutive sessions. The Dow Industrials hit a record high close for the 10th time this year. The S&P is now up 14 of the last 17 trading sessions. The last time the Dow experienced a 10% correction was back in October 2011; since then, the Dow has gained almost 60% over 32 months without a 10% correction. Typically, you can expect a correction about every 12 months on average. The longest period without at least a 10% pullback was an 82 month run from 1990-1997. The S&P 500 hit a record high close for the 19th time this year. The S&P bull market is now at 62 months and counting, the best run since 1994 to 2000.   The CBOE Volatility Index moved a little higher today to 11.34. On Friday, the VIX hit a low of 10.73, the lowest level since January 2007. The VIX can go low and stay low for an extended period of time. In 2007, after hitting a low, the VIX steadily rose for the remainder of the year but stock prices didn’t peak until the end of 2007. The VIX measures options trades, but does it really mean investors …

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Uncategorized

Thursday, November 29,2012 – Place Your Bets

Place Your Bets by Sinclair Noe Let’s start with the important numbers today: 5, 16, 22, 23, 29, and the Powerball 6. And I did not win. Somebody in Missouri and somebody in Phoenix are holding the winning tickets. Not me. All I’m holding is a $10 piece of paper which is my donation to the tax fund for the mathematically challenged. DOW + 36 = 13,021SPX + 6 = 1415 NAS + 20 = 301210 YR YLD un = 1.62%OIL + 1.23 = 87.72GOLD + 6.00 = 1726.80SILV + .50 = 34.27 The U.S. economy grew at a 2.7 percent annual rate from July through September, much faster than first thought. The Commerce Department said growth in the third quarter was significantly better than the 2 percent rate estimated a month ago. And it was more than twice the 1.3 percent rate reported for the April-June quarter. The main reason for the upward revision to the gross domestic product was businesses restocked at a faster pace than previously estimated. That offset weaker consumer spending growth. The fourth quarter GDP is expected to drop back down below 2 percent because of Hurricane Sandy, which put the brakes on all sorts of business activity along the East Coast. And then the other reason cited for the possible fourth quarter slowdown is the fiscal cliff. (Sorry, we just can’t get through the day without talking about it.) So, here is the annotated version of today’s fiscal cliff report: a little partisan sniping, …

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