Financial Review

Low Price Leader

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-14-2015 DOW – 157 = 16,924 SPX – 9 = 1994 NAS – 13 = 4782 10 YR YLD – .07 = 1.98% OIL – .37 = 46.29 GOLD + 15.40 = 1185.30 SILV + .22 = 16.22   Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in September. Auto sales were strong, up 1.7% last month. Sales at gas stations were down 3.2% because gas prices were lower. Sales fell at Internet retailers, general stores, home centers, groceries and outlets that sell appliances and electronics. Sales rose at restaurants. Excluding autos and gas, sales were flat. Retail sales have risen 2.4% in the past 12 months, though the gain is a healthier 4.9% if gasoline is omitted.   The producer price index, which measures prices at the wholesale level, fell 0.5% last month. In September the wholesale price of gas sank almost 17%, marking the sharpest decline since January. That drove down the overall cost of goods by 1.2%. The cost of services also fell by 0.4% last month, the biggest decline since February. Core producer prices, excluding the volatile categories of food, energy and trade fell a smaller 0.3% in September. Over the past year, overall producer prices have fallen an unadjusted 1.1%.   Inventories at U.S. businesses were flat in August. Business sales fell 0.6% in August, the biggest drop since January. The inventory-to-sales ratio, an …

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Financial Review

A Slightly Older Mindset

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-18-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-18-2015.   DOW – 33 = 17,511 SPX – 5 = 2096 NAS – 32 = 5059 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.20% OIL + .51 = 42.39 GOLD + .10 = 1118.50 SILV – .45 = 14.97   When Chinese markets catch pneumonia, US markets sneeze. That seems to be the trend lately. And once again, Chinese markets were under the weather as the People’s Bank of China took fresh steps to offset capital outflows prompted by its weakened currency. China’s central bank placed $18 billion worth of seven-day reverse repos into the money market during the session – the largest single day injection in almost 19 months. The latest rout raises fresh concerns that the Chinese economy is in dire need of stimulus. Shanghai -6.1%; Shenzhen -6.6%.   Across the Atlantic, European stocks didn’t perform well either. The German DAX dropped 0.2% and the French CAC fell 0.3%. The devaluation in China probably does not have the dire repercussions some have suggested, but it does fit within the broader narrative of a slowing global economy, with less support from emerging markets. And that, in turn, would indicate rising market volatility. At its peak last week, the VIX Index, which measures volatility of the S&P 500 Index, was up 50% from the previous week’s low. There are bigger moves beneath the surface. During the recent earnings season, more than 5% of …

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Financial Review

Sooner Rather Than Later

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-18-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 180 = 18,115 SPX + 20 = 2121 NAS + 68 = 5132 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.35% OIL + .53 = 60.45 GOLD + 16.90 = 1203.00 SILV + .04 = 16.26   Three straight days of gains on Wall Street.  The Nasdaq finished up 68 points, or 1.3%, to 5132.95 and hit a new intraday record high of 5143.32. That tops its previous all-time intraday high of 5132.52, set back in March 10, 2000. The Nasdaq’s previous closing high of 5,106.59 was notched much more recently, on May 27. The rally was broad-based as all 10 S&P sectors rose with health care leading the way and all 30 stocks of the Dow posted gains.   We start with economic data. The consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month, almost entirely because of a surge in gasoline prices ahead of the summer driving season. Gas prices shot up 10.4% to mark the largest gain in six years. The overall cost of food, meanwhile, was unchanged for the second month in a row. Stripping out the volatile food and energy categories, so-called core consumer prices rose a much milder 0.1% in May. The cost of housing, airline tickets and medical care all rose while clothing prices declined.   The Conference Board’s leading economic index rose 0.7% in May for the second month …

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Financial Review

Corporate Clout

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 77 = 17,698 SPX – 8 = 2059 NAS – 20 = 4880 10 YR YLD – .06 = 1.87% OIL + 2.49 = 50.09 GOLD + 20.40 = 1204.10 SILV + .30 = 17.04   The first quarter is done; Among the winners: the S&P 500 pulled out a modest gain for the ninth consecutive winning quarter; healthcare was the best performing sector in the S&P 500, up 7.4%; utilities were the biggest decliners in the index, down 5.8%. The Nasdaq Composite posted its ninth consecutive quarterly gain (the first time ever). The Dow Industrials posted a small loss year to date. Oil dropped just over 14% for the quarter. The first quarter’s best-performing exchange-traded products include China, Japan, and solar. The first quarter’s worst-performing exchange-traded products include plays on Brazilian stocks, coffee and volatility.   In many ways, the dollar set the tone across markets in the first three months of the year. The dollar index, hit a 12-year high during the quarter. The strong dollar, or at least the pace of its rise, played havoc with earnings of large multinationals who rely heavily on foreign sales. Meanwhile, commodity markets also saw pressure from a stronger dollar.   Treasuries saw price gains in the first quarter. The yield on the 10 year note dropped from 2.17% to 1.93%. The total return in the Treasury market overall, including price …

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Financial Review

Sparks Turn into Flames

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-05-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 38 = 18,135 SPX + 2 = 2101 NAS + 15 = 4982 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.11% OIL – .59 = 50.94 GOLD SILV   Productivity in the fourth quarter fell at a revised 2.2% annual pace. The Labor Department originally estimated that productivity fell 1.8% in the final three months of 2014.   The number of people who applied for new unemployment benefits climbed by 7,000 to 320,000 for the week ended February 28. New applications for unemployment benefits are 1.5% below year-ago levels.   Of course the big economic news is tomorrow morning when we get the monthly jobs report. A month ago, the report showed the economy added 257,000 net new jobs in January. The estimate for February is 235,000 new jobs. It would be a bit of a surprise if the number is stronger than expected. Earlier in the week the ISM report showed employment was still expanding, but at a slower pace; they cited the West Coast port slowdown. Meanwhile, the rest of the country has experienced bad weather in February. Overall, the labor market looks to be improving, slowly.   Last month, Walmart made headlines by announcing it would be hiking wages for a significant chunk of its hourly workforce, boosting its minimum hourly rate to $10 by next year. What was behind the move? Yesterday’s Beige Book may provide a clue. The report says …

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Monday, November 25, 2013 – A Record High, Barely

A Record High, Barely by Sinclair Noe DOW + 7 = 16,072SPX – 2 = 1802NAS + 2 = 399410 YR YLD – .01 = 2.73%OIL – .75 = 94.09GOLD + 7.90 = 1252.60SILV + .38 = 20.31 The Dow and the S&P 500 indices have posted 7 weeks of gains. Today was flat, with the Dow up a few points and the S&P down a little. We’ll have a holiday shortened week, with the market closed on Thursday (something retailers should consider). Over the weekend, the big news was a nuclear agreement, of sorts between the US and Iran. The basic idea of the agreement is that we would lift some sanctions against Iran and they would not expand their nuclear program. The deal frees up some Iranian oil revenue that had been frozen in foreign banks. It’s unlikely Iran will add much in oil exports in the six months covered by the agreement. Iran has been exporting oil to China, India, South Korea, and Japan; those countries were granted waivers on sanctions because they really wanted the oil. The main benefit of the weekend’s deal with Iran may be the psychological impact on the market, which has long been propped up by fears of a supply disruption resulting from the standoff between Iran and the United States and its allies. Also, Iran may benefit from access to investment in oil infrastructure and equipment; but again, this is a 6 month deal for now. Many Middle Eastern countries have …

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Thursday, November 14, 2013 – These are the Days of Milk and Cookies or, If You Prefer, Wine and Neurosis

These are the Days of Milk and Cookies or, If You Prefer, Wine and Neurosis by Sinclair Noe DOW + 54 = 15,876SPX + 8 = 1790NAS + 7 = 397210 YR YLD – .03 = 2.69%OIL + .08 = 93.96GOLD + 5.00 = 1288.30SILV + .13 = 20.85 More record highs for the Dow and the S&P 500. Celebrate with your beverage of choice. You will likely hear a bunch of stupidity with regard to Janet Yellen as she works her way through the confirmation process. Today, she delivered prepared remarks to a Senate Committee. She did not surprise and she did not disappoint. Yellen is dovish; we knew that. She believes in monetary stimulus; we knew that. She believes in regulations to prevent a repeat of past mistakes; we knew that. She is probably the most qualified Fed Chair nominee ever. A little bit of background: Economics degree from Brown University; Phd. From Yale; taught at Harvard, the London School of Economics, and UC Berkeley; Fed Governor from 1994 to 97; San Francisco Fed president in 2004; vice chair of the Fed since 2010; a member of multiple economic councils and committees, including the Council of Economic Advisors, CBO, MIT, etc, etc; married to Nobel Prize winning economist George Akerlof, considered more accurate than her Fed peers in foreseeing the housing crisis and the financial downturn. Indeed, Yellen was “one of the only top Fed policy makers who warned about the housing bubble before the crisis.” – (NYTimes) …

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Wednesday, December 19, 2012 – You Can’t Kill a Bank, Even With a Bushmaster

You Can’t Kill a Bank, Even With a Bushmaster by Sinclair Noe DOW – 98 = 13,251SPX – 10 = 1435NAS – 10 = 304410 YR YLD -.03 = 1.80%OIL + 1.49 = 89.42GOLD – 5.00 = 1666.90SILV – .66 = 31.08 All right, let’s start with a refresher course; Libor stands for the London Interbank Offered Rate. It’s the rate at which banks are able to borrow money from each other. The lower a bank’s rate (banks submit their own rates) the healthier it’s deemed to be. If you’re balance sheet is healthy, you get a low rate when you borrow. If your balance sheet is known to contain toxic assets, you have to pay a higher rate to borrow. The rates were especially indicative of banks’ health during the peak of the financial crisis when the markets were all but frozen and access to funds were limited. The Libor rate is determined daily; sixteen banks submit their rates to an agency; the four highest rates are wiped out and the four lowest rates are wiped out. The result is averaged and the daily Libor rate is published. It would take more than one bank to manipulate the rates. But once the rate is published it affects trillions of dollars of financial instruments around the globe. More than a dozen banks in the U.S. and Europe are under investigation for Libor rate rigging. Even though it is not really surprising, the sheer scope and audacity of the market manipulation …

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Monday, April 23, 2012 European Debate Austerity v. Growth, Walmart in Mexico, Apple in Seattle

DOW – 102 = 12,927SPX – 11 = 1366NAS – 30 = 297010 YR YLD – .04 = 1.93%OIL +.03 = 103.14GOLD – 4.10 = 1639.30SILV – .84 = 30.86PLAT – 22.00 = 1565.00 There is some uncertainty in Europe. Sarkozy is losing the election in France; the Dutch government has collapsed, and the debt continues to mount and the austerity plans aren’t working and the natives are getting restless. In France, Sarkozy came in second behind Francois Hollande, the Socialist candidate and a harsh critic of the spending cuts prescribed as a way to end the region’s debt crisis. This was the first round of voting and there will be a runoff election on May 6th. Hollande won 28.6 percent to Sarkozy’s 27.1 percent; Hollande has the momentum. Voter frustration with the status quo and with the E.U. fed a rise of support for extremes at both ends of the political scale, making potential kingmakers out of 11 million voters who supported candidates of the far right and left. Sarkozy and Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel have been the main architects of Europe’s efforts to avoid a collapse of the region’s shared currency. If Sarkozy loses, it means Merkel might not last. If both Sarkozy and Merkel lose power, we’ve got a whole new situation. Figures reported by the European Union’s statistics office confirmed the effects of budget-cutting programs on countries that use the euro currency. Even with widespread spending cuts, overall debt rose to 87.2 percent, the highest level since …

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