Financial Review

Solid Monday Trading

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-26-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:55 — 7.4MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Wall Street rallies. New home sales slide. Waiting on Powell’s Fed testimony. Buffett’s pearls of wisdom. Fitbit not fit. GE has fallen. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-26-2018

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Financial Review

What Inflation?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-14-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Stocks post 4th day of gains. CPI shows inflation up 0.5%, yawn. Retail sales slip. Chipotle hot again. Cisco has revenue again. Fannie Mae in the red again. Uber, Buffett, Apple. SpaceX wants to launch broadband satellites. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-14-2018

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Author Interviews

Daniel Pecaut and Corey Wrenn

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/DAN_PECAUT-COREY_WRENN-07-25-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 19:49 — 11.3MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSSinclair Noe interviews Daniel Pecaut and Corey Wrenn, co-authors of “University of Berkshire Hathaway: 30 Years of Lessons Learned from Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger at the Annual Shareholders Meeting”

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Financial Review

Halftime

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-30-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Stock wrap for the day, month, quarter and first half – mainly higher. Wheat wins. Dollar down. Oil down. Buffett wins again. Consumer spending up. Sentiment down. Illinois teeters on junk. Send in the ATF. Happy 4th. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-30-2017

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Financial Review

Take 65

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-22-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Senate unveils a health care bill. CBO score next week. Vote soon after. 4 GOP senators already oppose it. Those tapes were a bluff. Banks pass stress tests. LEI up. Mortgage rates down. Qatar wants to buy American. Sears Canada BK. Warren’s latest deal. Oracle shines through the cloud. Facebook on a mission. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-22-2017

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Financial Review

Time Waits for No One

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-08-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..French election goes as predicted. Markets snooze. Global banks Brexit London. Phoenix housing market tight inventory. Housing ATM again. Straight Path to $3.1 billion. Coaching Kate Spade. Tyson overcooked. Sinclair buys Trib. Amazon’s Alexa rules. Ackman pimps HHC at Sohn. The Warren and Charlie Show. Do not live in Kentucky. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-08-2017

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Financial Review

Boxcars

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-27-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Twelve consecutive record high closes for the Dow. Mr. Trump goes to Congress and he has a budget; more on defense, less discretionary; no change to Social Security and Medicare; repeal Obamacare. Warrant Buffett’s annual shareholder letter paints a rosy picture of the economy and stocks, but blasts hedge funds and investment fees. GE’s Jeff Immelt’s letter to shareholders marks the end of the global elite.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-27-2017

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Financial Review

Cookies, Milk, Cannoli

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-15-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Record high close for the Dow, again. Oil bounces despite glut. Retail sales up. Import prices up. Paris agreement “unstoppable”. UK has no plan for Brexit. Google and Facebook close the gate on fake news. Buffett buys airlines. Soros buys GOOG and NFLX. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-15-2016

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Financial Review

What Are the Odds?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-07-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Big rally as Wall Street prices in a Clinton victory. What the bookies and the pollsters predict. Global markets move higher. Oil bounce after a losing streak. Buffett loaded with cash. Oracle wraps up NetSuite. Samsung goes AI. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-07-2016

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Financial Review

Groundwork for Fed Minutes

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSHousing starts up. CPI up. Industrial production up. Is the Fed up for a rate hike? 13-F review – lots of shorts. Aetna quits ACA. EPA standards for trucks. Ford gives up the wheel. Knock, knock. It’s Google.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-16-2016 DOW – 84 = 18,552 SPX – 12 = 2178 NAS – 34 = 5227 10 Y + .02 = 1.57% OIL + .84 = 46.58 GOLD + 7.20 = 1346.80 Housing starts ran at a seasonally adjusted 1.21 million annual rate in July, a 2.1% increase over the June figure. Permits were at a 1.15 million annual rate in July, essentially flat from a revised June reading. Single-family starts edged up 0.5% to a 770,000 annual pace. Most of the strength in July came from multifamily starts, which popped 8.3% to a 433,000 annual rate. Overall housing starts are 5.6% higher compared to a year ago, and July’s figure was the second-best of the recovery.   The consumer price index rose 0.8% compared to a year ago. The Labor Department said core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 2.2%. The cost of food was unchanged in July, and has risen 0.2% over the past year, the smallest increase since the 12 months ending in March 2010. Energy prices declined 1.6% and are 10.9% lower for the year. (However, today, oil posted its fourth straight session …

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Financial Review

May Maybe

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-29-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSEnd of week, end of month,  no inflation, dollar soft, Exxon and Chevron get ugly, Woodstock for Capitalists and a dying breed. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-29-2016

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Financial Review

The Vultures Eat

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-29-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-29-2016   DOW – 123 = 16,516 SPX – 15 = 1932 NAS – 32 = 4557 10 Y – .02 = 1.74% OIL + 1.12 = 33.90 GOLD + 16.50 = 1239.30   If you missed the past month, you might think things were calm on Wall Street for the month of February. For the month, the Dow rose 0.3 percent, the S&P 500 lost 0.4 percent and the Nasdaq lost 1.2 percent. This marks the first time since 2011 that major indexes posted three consecutive monthly declines.   Chinese shares closed at one-month lows. China cut the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves for the fifth time since last February. The yuan hit a three week low. China expects to lay off 1.8 million coal and steel workers.    A weekend meeting of G20 finance chiefs ended without a plan to spur global growth. The G20 issued a statement which basically said the global economy is not as bad as the doomsayers think. G20 finance ministers agreed to use “all policy tools – monetary, fiscal and structural – individually and collectively” to reach the group’s economic goals; but there was no plan for coordinated stimulus. Participants also repeated previous pledges not to engage in competitive currency devaluations and promised to “consult closely” on exchange markets. Those pledges might not last long, and the Euro Union …

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Financial Review

The World Continues

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 46 = 18,070 SPX + 6 = 2114 NAS + 11 = 5016 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.13% OIL – .22 = 58.93 GOLD + 9.90 = 1188.80 SILV + .27 = 16.47   Orders for factory goods rose to 2.1% in March, a little less than expected. Orders for durable goods rose 4.4%; that’s for goods designed to last for three or more years. Orders for non-durable goods dropped 0.3%. But the big economic news this week will be the Friday Jobs Report. The Jobs Report for March came in at a very disappointing 126,000 jobs added; forecasters predict job creation in April will bounce back to somewhere between 225,000 to 245,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate ticking down to 5.4%. We’ll also be watching the jobs report for any indication of wage inflation. The employment cost index was up 0.7% in the first quarter.   The government calculates that the typical household threshold for spending on housing and utilities is 30%. The AP reports that more than one in four renters spend more than half their income on housing and utility costs. This is a simple story of supply and demand. Housing supply is very tight. The rental vacancy rate has not been this low in 20 years. Tight supply and strong demand means higher prices. And as rental rates have moved …

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Financial Review

May Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 183 = 18,024 SPX + 22 = 2108 NAS + 63 = 5005 10 YR YLD + .07 = 2.11% OIL – .29 = 59.34   For the week, the Dow dropped 0.3%, the S&P 500 fell 0.4% and the Nasdaq was down 1.7%. May kicks off what has been the worst six months for stocks historically which has brought rise to the old saying “sell in May and go away.” Sometimes it works but no guarantees.   The Detroit 3 automakers reported solid April sales as new models and cheap loans lured even more buyers into what’s already a brisk-moving new-vehicle market. Fiat Chrysler reported sales jumped 6% in April, GM gained 5.9% and Ford rose 5%. Still, their stocks were mixed. Ford and GM were higher, Fiat Chrysler was down.   Merchants displeased with the high fees American Express charges them are permitted to steer customers toward less expensive cards without fearing retaliation from the credit card company. A Judge in Brooklyn federal court has ruled that American Express is not allowed to stop stores from offering discounts, rebates or other incentives for using lower-fee cards – an activity known as steering.    Construction spending fell in March to a six-month low as outlays on private residential construction spending declined sharply. Construction spending slipped 0.6 percent to an annual rate of $966 billion, the lowest level …

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Financial Review

A Bit Ironic

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-25-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 292 = 17,718 SPX – 30 = 2061 NAS – 118 = 4876 10 YR YLD + .04 = 1.92% OIL + 1.70 = 49.21 GOLD + 1.90 = 1196.10 SILV + .01 = 17.06 Not much in the way of economic data today. Orders for durable goods dropped in February, a possible sign the slowdown in global growth may be weighing on American manufacturers. Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years declined 1.4 percent after a 2 percent gain in January that was smaller than previously estimated. Demand for American-made products may be softening as economies abroad struggle to accelerate and a stronger dollar makes it more attractive for foreign customers to buy from elsewhere.   Certainly not much in the way of news that would push the markets down to triple digit losses, but that’s the way the markets have been recently. In the past couple of weeks we see big moves in the markets, a little more to the downside than the upside. One of the better explanations I’ve heard for what is moving the market – irony. It seems like good news is bad and bad news is good. A strong dollar is good news for the consumer; certainly when it comes to lower gas prices. A strong dollar hurts durable goods orders. The jobs picture has shown solid and …

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Financial Review

Holy Grail

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 155 = 18,288 SPX + 12 = 2117 NAS + 44 = 5008 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.08% OIL + .06 = 49.82 GOLD – 7.80 = 1206.90 SILV – .22 = 16.46   February was the best month for stocks since October 2011. The S&P 500 gained 5.5% in February. March is off to a fine start. The Dow Industrial Average closed at a record high. The S&P 500 closed at a record. The Nasdaq Composite hit 5000 for the first time in 15 years. And if you wonder why we celebrate when the indices hit records, it is because 15 years ago we didn’t know it would take 15 years to get back to these levels.   Earnings season is pretty much over and it wasn’t all that pretty. With 485 of 500 S&P 500 companies reporting, FactSet says the blended growth rate is only 3.7%. Without Apple that number shrinks to only 2% but then again if you take out energy, it balloons to nearly 7%. Estimates have been revised lower, which is typical; companies try to ratchet down expectations, but this is different. All sectors are showing expectation deterioration, not just energy.   Earnings growth has slowed, and valuations are a little on the pricey side, and expectations are down. So, why are stocks at record highs? Well, start with the idea that …

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Financial Review

Live Long and Prosper

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 81 = 18,132 SPX – 6 = 2104 NAS – 24 = 4963 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.00% OIL + 1.03 = 49.20 GOLD + 4.50 = 1214.70 SILV + .04 = 16.67   We are wrapping up the first 2 months of trading. January was a down month for stocks, but February turned positive, with record high closes posted for the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. The Nasdaq went almost entirely green for the month, closing in on 5000, and actually setting a new monthly closing high, taking out the March 2000 monthly close of 4572.   For the month, the Dow Industrial Average gained 5.6%, the S&P 500 gained 5.5% and the Nasdaq added 7.1%, and the Russell 2000 added 5.8%. Year to date, , Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.7% YTD, S&P 500 +2.2% YTD, Nasdaq Composite +4.8% YTD,  and the Russell 2000 +2.4% YTD,   Junk bonds are poised to deliver gains of 2.3% for February, the best monthly result since 2013, while investment-grade debt has registered losses. Investors are also returning to the equity markets, with the MSCI All-Country World Index touching a record Thursday after two losing months. Markets in Germany, the United Kingdom and Sweden hit all-time highs. Japan, the poster child of deflation, saw its stock index reach its highest point in 15 years. This …

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Financial Review

Justice Delayed is Par for the Course

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-18-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 17 = 18,029 SPX – 0.66 = 2099 NAS + 7 = 4906 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.06% OIL – 2.56 = 50.97   The S&P 500 closed above 2,100 for the first time ever on Tuesday, delivering year-end target goals to Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and Barclays nearly 11 months early.   Greece confirms that it plans to submit a request to the euro zone tomorrow to extend a “loan agreement” for up to six months, but EU paymaster Germany says Athens must stick to the terms of its existing international bailout. Greece wants to maintain a budget surplus before interest payments equal to 1.5 percent of gross domestic product; the current plan calls for a budget surplus equal to 4.5 percent of GDP. It’s still unclear what the terms of the extension will look like, as both Athens and its creditors seem determined not to compromise over the loan’s conditions.   The Federal Reserve released minutes from the January 27-28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The minutes reveal that “Many participants indicated that their assessment of the balance of risks associated with the timing of the beginning of policy normalization had inclined them toward keeping the federal funds rate at its effective lower bound for a longer time.” Allow me to translate; the Fed would like to put off raising interest rates because the economy …

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Author Interviews

Lawrence Cunningham

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/LAWRENCE_CUNNINGHAM.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 19:50 — 9.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSListen to Sinclair Noe interview author Lawrence Cunningham For more information on the book, click the banner Berkshire Beyond Buffett: The Enduring Value of Values by Lawrence Cunningham Berkshire Hathaway, the $300+ billion conglomerate that Warren Buffett built, is among the world’s largest and most famous corporations. Yet, for all its power and celebrity, few people understand Berkshire, and many assume it cannot survive without Buffett. This book challenges that assumption. In a comprehensive portrait of the corporate culture that unites Berkshire’s subsidiaries, Lawrence Cunningham unearths the traits that assure the conglomerate’s perpetual prosperity. Riveting stories of each subsidiary’s origins, triumphs, and journey to Berkshire reveal how managers generate economic value from intangibles like thrift, integrity, entrepreneurship, autonomy, and a sense of permanence. Berkshire Beyond Buffett explores not only what will happen to Berkshire after Buffett, but presents all of Berkshire behind Buffett, the inspiring managerial luminaries, innovative entrepreneurs, and devotees of deep values that define this esteemed organization. Whether or not you are convinced that Berkshire can endure without Buffett, the book is full of management lessons for small and large businesses, entrepreneurs, family firms, and Fortune 500 CEOs. Enjoy entertaining tales from Berkshire’s 50 main subsidiaries, including Dairy Queen, GEICO, Benjamin Moore, Fruit of the Loom, BNSF, Justin, Pampered Chef, Marmon, Clayton Homes, FlightSafety, and more.

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Financial Review

Thursday, April 24, 2014 – The Bridge From Bubbles to Prosperity

The Bridge From Bubbles to Prosperity by Sinclair Noe DOW unchanged 16,501SPX + 3 = 1878NAS + 21 = 414810 YR YLD unchanged 2.69%OIL + .46 = 101.90GOLD + 10.20 = 1294.90SILV + .20 = 19.75 The Dow closed unchanged. That is just one of those freaky things that happens every few years. I remember it happened in 2008, and 1998 and 1996. I’m fairly sure there were other days where the Dow closed unchanged. I don’t know if there is any particular significance. Orders to factories for durable goods rose 2.6%, adding to the 2.1% rise in February. The back-to-back gains followed two big declines in December and January, which had raised concerns about possible weakness in manufacturing. The earlier declines, however, were likely tied to bad winter weather. On the jobs front, the number of people seeking unemployment benefits jumped 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 329,000 last week. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 316,750, which puts us back to 2007 levels. The big earnings report today was Microsoft, which posted income of $5.6 billion, or 68 cents per share, compared with $6 billion, or 72 cents, in the year-ago quarter. They beat estimates of 63 cents per share, but take it with a grain of salt; the estimates started the quarter around 80 cents per share. Yesterday we talked about a tech bubble, and whether we were in one or not, and we looked at comments from Greenlight Capital manager David Einhorn; he says …

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