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Tuesday, May 07, 2013 – Good Times Roll

Good Times Roll by Sinclair Noe DOW + 87 = 15,056SPX + 8 = 1625NAS + 3 = 339610 YR YLD + .01 = 1.78%OIL – .64 = 95.52GOLD – 17.70 = 1453.60SILV – .08 = 24.06 The fun started in Asia as a weak yen sent Tokyo stocks to their highest level in almost five years while Australian shares closed lower after briefly erasing declines following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s to cut key interest rates. The yen has now lost one percent since Thursday; the result is a rally in the Nikkei, supported by upward revisions in earnings expectations for Japanese companies. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up more than 50% in the past six months and overnight breached 14,000 for the first time since 2008. This is known as Abenomics, named after Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister who has instituted a very aggressive form of monetary easing, much more aggressive than what the Federal Reserve is doing in the US; the plan will double Japan’s monetary base by the end of 2014. Later in the week, we’ll see if Abenomics is gaining traction as Japanese automakers report earnings; of course, it may still be too early to see Abenomics result in stronger earnings, but over time, a weaker yen should result in more car sales for the likes of Toyota and Honda. The world has done OK while Japan has stagnated. If Japan were to go back to something like a 3% growth rate, that would make …

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Friday, April 12, 2014 – Trade Secrets

Trade Secrets by Sinclair Noe DOW – 0.08 = 14,865SPX – 4 = 1588NAS – 5 = 329410 YR YLD – .07 = 1.72%OIL – 2.85 = 90.66GOLD – 84.00 = 1478.00SILV – 1.81 = 25.95 The S&P 500 is up about 2.4 percent for the week, and the Dow up about 1.8 percent and Nasdaq up about 2.4 percent. The S&P has only had two weeks in 2013 with bigger gains. For the year, the Dow has gained more than 13 percent and the Nasdaq is up 8.7 percent. Retail sales fell in March for the second time in three months and consumer confidence dropped in April. Sales fell 0.4 percent in March. Consumer spending was considerably weaker in the first quarter than estimated. Core sales, which strip out cars, gasoline and building materials, fell 0.2 percent last month. This measure corresponds closely with the consumer spending component of the government’s measure of gross domestic product. It is widely believed that the end of the payroll tax holiday is related to the drop in consumer spending. Going a step further, growth is expected to slow sharply in the second quarter largely because fiscal policy tightened further in March. A separate report from Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan shows the consumer sentiment index dropping ot 72.3 in April, the lowest level since last summer. Producer prices, or prices at the wholesale level, fell 0.6 percent in March, their biggest drop in 10 months, as gasoline prices tumbled. In the 12 months …

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Friday, October 12, 2012 – Peace Out

Peace Out by Sinclair Noe DOW + 2 = 13,328SPX – 4 = 1428NAS – 5 = 304410 YR YLD -.01 = 1.66%OIL – .43 = 91.64GOLD – 12.90 = 1755.30SILV – .52 = 33.58PLAT – 23.00 = 1660.00 Two down, two to go; debates that is. So far, it has been great entertainment; and we all get to play critic; too polite, too disrespectful, too vague, too mendacious, big flag pin, little flag pin, too much style and not enough substance. In addition to a dearth of veracity, there were other glaring omissions, such as details, specifics, and of course, the Federal Reserve. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. Maybe the marching orders came from Jamie Dimon, speaking before the CFR the other day, Dimon discounted all this QE stuff. Dimon says QE1, 2, and 3 added together are only about $3 trillion dollars,… so far. Now that might sound like a significant sum to a bumpkin like me, but Dimon puts it in perspective; it is just a small part of the total financial assets of America, $80 trillion dollars. I didn’t see much in the itemized columns about that $80 trillion but it seems that much of it is securitized debt, backstopped by the Federal Reserve, and without the Fed “Put”, that $80 trillion in financial assets might just be so much paper; in other words, it remains susceptible to massive deleveraging. Profit for JPMorgan rose 34% to $5.71 billion, or $1.40 a share, …

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Thursday, July 12, 2012 – Banks Taking Risks, Evading Taxes, Discriminating, Foreclosing, And Yes It Is A depression

Banks Taking Risks, Evading Taxes, Discriminating, Foreclosing, And Yes It Is A depression-by Sinclair NoeDOW – 31 = 12,573SPX – 6 = 1334NAS – 21 = 286610 YR YLD -.02 = 1.48%OIL – .23 = 85.85GOLD – 4.40 = 1573.20SILV +.07 = 27.31PLAT – 12.00 = 1423.00After the financial meltdown of 2008, regulators vowed to overhaul supervision of the nation’s largest banks. Last year, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York replaced almost all of its roughly 40 examiners at JPMorgan Chase. The thinking was that the regulators shouldn’t get too cozy with the regulated. They brought in some new regulators. By the time they got up to speed, it was too late.The New York Fed’s shake-up only aggravated a continuing struggle between JPMorgan executives and regulators from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which supervises banks. For years, the agency, with dozens of its own examiners at JPMorgan, worried that the bank had been miscalculating how much money it could lose in extreme situations.Examiners challenged the executives; the executives stonewalled. At one point in early 2012, JPMorgan briefly stopped providing examiners with an important risk estimate for the chief investment office, the group at the center of the recent trading losses. Executives told examiners not to worry. For their part, regulators say it is not their job to micromanage or remove risk altogether. Their goal is to protect the financial system broadly.Around that time, the bank changed the value-at-risk measure for the chief investment office, which they …

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Friday, June 22, 2012 – Something About Mary – by Sinclair Noe

DOW + 67 = 12,640SPX + 9 = 1335NAS + 33 = 289210 YR YLD+.05 = 1.67%OIL + 13.92 = 92.12GOLD + 7.10 = 1573.30SILV +.02 = 27.00PLAT – 4.00 = 1441.00Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve paid attention to Jamie Dimon’s testimony on Capitol Hill. You might not have noticed the testimony of Mary Schapiro before the Senate before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. Schapiro is the Chairwoman of the SEC. Her testimony was a frank warning on the vulnerabilities of the money market fund system. You may remember that in September 2008, money market funds broke the buck; there was a run on funds held in money market accounts that was only staunched by a $3 trillion dollar guarantee from the Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Breaking the buck was a key part of the financial crisis. There were profound implications for a reputedly rock solid investment. The effects rippled throughout the economy as investors were shortchanged and sponsors were squeezed as they were forced to shore up valuations. Could we see another run on money market funds? We already have. It happened one year ago, a small scale run. And yes, it could happen again. And just because the run was stopped in 2008 and 2011, it is no guarantee another run could be contained in the future. There has basically been no reforms to prevent or control a future money market fund run. Here’s part of Schapiro’s testimony:“Given the role money market funds …

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Tuesday, April 24, 2012 – As the Euro Turns, Counting Protesters at Shareholder Meetings

DOW + 74 = 13,001 SPX + 5 = 1371NAS – 8 = 296110 YR YLD +.03 = 1.96%OIL +.20 = 103.75GOLD + 3.20 = 1642.50SILV -.03 = 30.93PLAT – 14.00 = 1550.00 Yesterday’s edition of “As the Euro Turns” included the collapse of the government in the Netherlands when it could not agree with a key allied party on budget cuts to bring the deficit below the EU-mandated 3 percent. In France, Socialist Francois Hollande led the first round of presidential elections; he has vowed to renegotiate a European treaty tightening rules on debt. All that was absorbed today. After all, the Dutch still have a Triple-A credit rating; they will probably pay their bonds. It does appear, at least for today, that the Euro has turned; as if a sudden transformation has swept the continent. Austerity is dead. Keynes has been resurrected and placed on a pedestal in Brussels, right next to a chocolate covered waffle. There was a mass awakening that countries cannot cut their way to prosperity. Angela Merkel is fighting back against the austerity backlash; she argues the “credibility” of the Eurozone is at risk without more austerity and continuing cutbacks. But austerity isn’t working and its hard to maintain credibility in the face of failed policy. Here is the problem: If a government (say Greece) has a massive deficit and now they are trying to balance their budget, the government will be making the situation worse by imposing cuts, both because government expenditure is …

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Friday, April 13, 2012

DOW – 136 = 12,849SPX – 17 = 1370NAS – 44 = 301110 YR YLD -.05 = 2.00%OIL – .81 = 102.83GOLD – 16.80 – 1659.50SILV – .88 = 31.60PLAT – 20.00 = 1581.00 The S&P 500 is now down 3.4 percent from this year’s closing high, after falling 2.7 percent over the past two weeks. Wells Fargo and JP Morgan reported first quarter results; both beat expectations. JP Morgan came in with EPS of $1.31 on $26.7b in revenues; topping estimates of EPS $1.18 and revenues of $24.6b. Wells Fargo posted EPS of $0.75 on $21.6b in revenues, beating estimates of $0.73 and $20.4b. JP Morgan made a big chunk of earnings by lowering their reserves for loan losses by $2 billion. In the last 2 years, JP Morgan has generated $12.3 billion in non-earning earnings, even as non-performing loans increased by $600 million in the last quarter. Or as CNBS said, they “blew expectations out of the water.” Blowing smoke is more like it. WFC – 3.4% JPM -3.6% BAC -5.3% GS -4.4% C -3.5%. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan said he would fight buyback demands or repurchase claims on mortgage securities that turned sour. Bank of America has already lost a few of these multi-billion dollar battles. JP Morgan is in the same business as Bank of America. Jamie Dimon briefly responded to questions about the Chief Investment Office, or CIO; that’s the proprietary trading division. According to JP Morgan the CIO division uses approximately …

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