Financial Review

Market Drift

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-18-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Oil jumps on draw downs. $3 a gallon soon. Morgan Stanley delivers but fails to wow. Beige Book concerns on tariffs. Amazon 100 million Prime. Puerto Rico blackout, again. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-18-2018

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Financial Review

And Bounce

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-26-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:59 — 7.4MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks rebound on hopes of no trade war. Facebook under fire. Google facing Euro breakup. Remington BK. No crypto tweet. NY Fed’s Dudley bankers need to stop rewarding bad behavior. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-26-2018

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Financial Review

Tariff This

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-01-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 11:43 — 6.7MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Steel and aluminum tariffs. Fed might gradually hike 4 times. Manufacturing jumps. Construction spending flat. Wells Fargo – they just can’t stop. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-01-2018

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Financial Review

More Shoes

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-11-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..PPI jumps. Unemployment claims shrink. Ugly day for retail. Waiting for more shoes to drop following Comey firing. Dudley warns against protectionism. Banks are starting to fail, again.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-11-2017

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Financial Review

Groundwork for Fed Minutes

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSHousing starts up. CPI up. Industrial production up. Is the Fed up for a rate hike? 13-F review – lots of shorts. Aetna quits ACA. EPA standards for trucks. Ford gives up the wheel. Knock, knock. It’s Google.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-16-2016 DOW – 84 = 18,552 SPX – 12 = 2178 NAS – 34 = 5227 10 Y + .02 = 1.57% OIL + .84 = 46.58 GOLD + 7.20 = 1346.80 Housing starts ran at a seasonally adjusted 1.21 million annual rate in July, a 2.1% increase over the June figure. Permits were at a 1.15 million annual rate in July, essentially flat from a revised June reading. Single-family starts edged up 0.5% to a 770,000 annual pace. Most of the strength in July came from multifamily starts, which popped 8.3% to a 433,000 annual rate. Overall housing starts are 5.6% higher compared to a year ago, and July’s figure was the second-best of the recovery.   The consumer price index rose 0.8% compared to a year ago. The Labor Department said core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 2.2%. The cost of food was unchanged in July, and has risen 0.2% over the past year, the smallest increase since the 12 months ending in March 2010. Energy prices declined 1.6% and are 10.9% lower for the year. (However, today, oil posted its fourth straight session …

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Financial Review

No Argument for Bulls

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-19-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSThe Fed chases the bulls away. Say it ain’t so Lefty. What you see in the mirror. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-19-2016

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Financial Review

Who Blinks First?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-04-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-04-2016   DOW + 79 = 16,416 SPX + 2 = 1915 NAS + 5 = 4509 10 Y – .02 = 1.86% OIL – .52 = 31.76 GOLD + 13.00 = 1156.40   Equity markets were all over the place once again today as crude oil popped and then dropped.   Initial jobless claims rose in the last week of January but remained at a very low level. New claims rose by 8,000 a seasonally adjusted 285,000 in the seven days stretching from Jan. 24 to Jan 30. Any number below 300,000 is historically considered a sign of a robust labor market, but claims are no longer falling rapidly. In the last two weeks of January, for example, the number of new claims was slightly higher compared with the same two weeks in 2014. It’s the first time in three years that has happened for two weeks in a row.   The productivity of U.S. businesses fell at a 3% annual pace in the fourth quarter, marking the biggest decline in almost two years. Weak productivity growth has been a hallmark of the near-seven-year economic recovery. Productivity increased just 0.6% in 2015, less than one-third the average since the end of World War II. In the fourth quarter, employees put in more time on the job but output of goods and services barely rose. Output edged up …

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Financial Review

Fired Up

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-26-2015 DOW + 619 = 16,285 SPX + 72 = 1940 NAS + 191 = 4697 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.17% OIL – .44 = 38.87 GOLD – 15.00 = 1126.40 SILV – .58 = 14.21   Stocks finally snapped a weeklong string of severe declines. The gain was the third-highest point gain in history for the Dow Jones industrials but, on a percentage basis, the 4% gain was not even in the top 20 historically. The Dow opened with a 443-point surge, pulled back and then rallied again to finish near its highs of the day, unlike yesterday when stocks surrendered their entire early gains and turned negative in the final hour of trade.   In China, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.3%, despite a new $22 billion injection from Beijing to shore up growth. Chinese equities have now extended their steepest five-day drop since 1996, losing half their value, or $5 trillion, since mid-June. Shares elsewhere in Asia ended mixed; European stocks were deep in the red.   We started with some strong economic data. Durable-goods orders rose a seasonally adjusted 2% last month after a 4.1% gain in June. Bookings for new cars and trucks and military hardware led the way. Orders rose 4% for autos and 22.3% for large defense goods such as fighter jets, missiles and tanks. Orders for aircraft dropped 6%. …

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Financial Review

Magnitude of Falsity is Enormous

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 36 = 18,068 SPX – 6 = 2099 NAS – 17 = 4976 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.25% OIL + 1.50 = 60.75 GOLD + 9.50 = 1194.00 SILV + .21 = 16.58   The Treasury market continued to sell-off this  morning, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury up to 2.35% intraday, the highest point since Nov. 21. The selling eased by the afternoon, sending the yield down to 2.25 percent. The intense selling in the Treasury market was fueled by a similar meltdown in the Eurozone’s government bond market which has been going on for more than two weeks. Germany’s 10-year bund yield is 14 times higher than a month ago.  The yield on the 10-year benchmark German bond known as the bund increased 12 basis points to 0.71% intraday and European peripherals, such as Spain, Italy and Portugal, also saw their yields jump between 10 and 13 basis points.   At a panel discussion in Zurich this morning, NY Fed President William Dudley outlined that he does not know when interest rates will rise but repeated recent comments that the policy tightening will depend on the US economy. In other words, the Fed won’t send out engraved invitations and you will need to stay alert but the markets shouldn’t be surprised when the Fed raises rates. Dudley said the conditions that will determine …

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Financial Review

Just Around the Corner

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 117 = 17,880 SPX + 13 = 2080 NAS + 30 = 4917 10 YR YLD un = 1.90% OIL + 2.84 = 51.98 GOLD + 12.00 = 1215.00 SILV + .20 = 17.07   The jobs report on Friday showed the economy added 126,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in March, the slowest monthly increase since December 2013, and the unemployment rate held at 5.5%. It was a bad jobs report; it raises concerns about a spring revival in the economy and should give the Fed cause to be more patient in initiating rate hikes.   New York Fed President William Dudley said the timing of interest rate hikes are uncertain and the Federal Reserve must watch that the surprising recent weakness in the economy does not foreshadow a more substantial slowdown, especially in the labor market. Dudley said: “It will be important to monitor developments to determine whether the softness in the March labor market report evident on Friday foreshadows a more substantial slowing in the labor market than I currently anticipate.” Still, Dudley said the weak economic data likely reflected “temporary factors to a significant degree.”   Maybe. There is still some question of whether the markets are pricing in higher rates. You can understand why markets might be slow to accept higher rates, like the kids in the back of the station wagon asking “are …

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Financial Review

Fans of Gridlock

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-21-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 91 = 17,810 SPX + 10 = 2063 NAS + 11 = 4712 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.32% OIL + .77 = 76.62 GOLD + 5.80 = 1201.30 SILV + .15 = 16.50 Record highs for the Dow and the S&P. China has cut interest rates for the first time in more than 2 years. The first thought is that China is trying to stimulate growth for a slowing economy. However, in making the announcement, the People’s Bank of China tried to emphasize that the economy is growing within a reasonable range, and the rate cut was not about spurring growth. Instead, they emphasized the need to reduce corporate financing costs to help struggling companies. So, you might think that lower rates would only encourage more borrowing in a country that already has too much debt. What the Chinese central bank appears to be doing is making it feasible to refinance the existing debt at lower rates, which would allow Chinese companies to lessen their debt burdens. So, in this way, lower rates is a way to deleverage. And this is not the first attempt at reducing borrowing costs. Since September the People’s Bank of China has provided more than $130 billion in medium term loans to banks on the condition they lower borrowing rates for small businesses; trying to channel to certain industries, including …

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Financial Review

Financial Engineers at the Gate

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-21-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 215 = 16,614 SPX + 37 = 1941 NAS + 103 = 4419 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.21% OIL + .64 = 82.55 GOLD + 2.50 = 1250.40 SILV + .09 = 17.62 In economic news, the National Association of Realtors reports sales of existing homes rose 2.4% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.17 million, hitting the fastest pace in one year and rebounding from an unexpected drop in August. However, September’s pace of sales was down 1.7% from a year earlier. So, the housing market isn’t roaring, but lower interest rates managed to pull some buyers off the sidelines last month. Low interest rates are just part of the equation in the housing market; buyers also need to be employed. The Labor Department today released state unemployment numbers, and in 15 states, the unemployment rate is now under 5%; that list includes: North Dakota at 2.8%, South Dakota at 3.4%, Utah 3.5%, and Nebraska, Minnesota, Hawaii, New Hampshire, Vermont, Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Dolorado, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and Kansas. Georgia has the highest unemployment rate at 7.9%. Arizona made the bottom 10 with a 6.9% unemployment rate, a full percentage point higher than the national average. Reuters reported the European Central Bank was looking at buying corporate bonds as soon as December in its efforts to revive the Eurozone economy. The move to buy corporate …

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Financial Review

A Tale of Three Stocks

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-20-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 19 = 16,339 SPX + 17 = 1904 NAS + 57 = 4316 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.18% OIL – .21 = 81.85 GOLD + 8.70 = 1247.90 SILV + .16 = 17.53 A nice bounce in the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite. For most of the session, the Dow was in negative territory, clawing its way to positive, barely. There are 3 stocks that had a compelling story today. We start with IBM, which reported its third-quarter results; a 10th consecutive period of falling sales, marked by weaker performance in growth markets. IBM said its long-standing forecast of earnings per share of $20 for 2015 is no longer achievable. IBM lowered its forecast for free cash flow. The company said it was selling its money-losing chip-making business to GlobalFoundries, a move to further cut costs and focus on its more profitable, faster-growing businesses. Once upon a time, IBM was a pioneer in advancing semiconductor technology, its manufacturing capability fell behind others that produced chips in large volume, but now they will have to pay GlobalFoundries $1.5 billion to take the chip division, while taking a $4.7 billion charge. IBM has been divesting slower-growing and unprofitable businesses, but like many older tech companies, it is caught in the middle; sloughing off the old and expensive without yet having a foothold in the new. Some customers are …

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Financial Review

Thursday, May 22, 2014 – A Heckuva Business Model

A Heckuva Business Model by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 10 = 16,543 SPX + 4 = 1892 NAS + 22 = 4154 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.55% OIL – .31 = 103.76 GOLD + 1.80 = 1294.70 SILV + .10 = 19.59   Yesterday we told you Russia and China had signed a 30 year, $400 billion dollar deal for Russia to deliver natural gas to China. Today, both countries vetoed a United Nations Security Council Resolution seeking to refer Syria to the International Criminal Court for possible war crimes. In the short-term, the Russia-China gas deal won’t have a big impact. The deal will not be in place until 2018 and even then will only see Russia selling a fraction of its gas exports to China every year, exports to the EU could still well be two to four times the size.   The economic links between Russia and Europe will continue to be significant and they will continue to be reliant on each other when it comes to energy; the former to sell the latter to buy, but this link gives an advantage to Russia, especially when the weather turns cold. At least symbolically the deal highlights Russia’s desire to move away from links with Europe. Combine this with Europe’s desire to increase energy security and the relations between the two sides could become increasingly cold and distant. Although, some countries due to geographical proximity, such as Bulgaria or Hungary; or due to long standing …

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Financial Review

Monday, May 20, 2014 – Protected Species

Protected Species by Sinclair Noe DOW – 137 = 16,374 SPX -12 = 1872 NAS – 28 = 4096 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.51% OIL + .87 = 102.98 GOLD + 1.70 = 1295.30 SILV + .05 = 19.49 Today is Tuesday and that means that General Motors has announced another recall; this time 2.6 million more cars. Last week, GM recalled 3 million vehicles. So far this year, GM has announced 29 recalls affecting more than 15 million cars globally. The list of recalled vehicles is long. It’s easier to list the vehicles that haven’t been recalled; they have recalled 58 versions of Chevrolet and GMC pickups.   Last week the Dow hit a record high; since then it has been floundering. For the fourth straight session, the Nasdaq Composite has posted more 52-week lows than 52-week highs; 55 lows versus 38 highs. The Russell 2000 Index of small and mid-cap stocks hit a high on March 4th and since then it has dropped almost 10%.   Meanwhile, interest rates have been moving steadily lower despite winding down of large scale asset purchases under the Fed’s quantitative easing, and the talk about raising interest rates at some point down the road. With yields on the 10-yr Treasury note dipping down around 2.5%, that means somebody is buying Treasuries, but if not the Fed, then who?   Well, it’s certainly not Russia. Putin sold off more than $100 billion in Treasuries in March; he was probably expecting Treasury …

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Uncategorized

Monday, January 06, 2014 – A Cold Forecast

A Cold Forecast by Sinclair Noe DOW – 44 = 16,425SPX – 4 = 1826NAS – 18 = 411310 YR YLD – .03 = 2.96%OIL – .31 = 93.65GOLD – .20 = 1238.80SILV + .02 = 20.27 A few big things this week. Friday we’ll see the monthly jobs report. Today we had the confirmation of Janet Yellen, no surprise there; on Wednesday we’ll see the minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting which will give us the justification for the taper. The minutes will likely include strong differentiation between taper and tightening, and the Fed is likely to stress the importance of accommodative monetary policy and ultra-low interest rates for the next 18 months or so. Any bond gains have been curbed as we start the new year; a combination of the Fed slowing its bond purchases, plus corporate supply, plus there is still the safe haven aspect of bonds in the face of a few days of weakness in the equity markets. This Friday’s jobs report will prove important as a barometer for yields. More than 2.2 million jobs were probably created in 2013, the most since about 2.5 million eight years earlier. The estimates call for 195,000 net new jobs in December and the unemployment rate to hold at 7.0%. If the economy added more than 200,000 jobs we might expect a more aggressive taper; fewer than 200,000 jobs and the taper might be more sanguine. Healthcare spending in the US rose 3.7% in 2012 to $2.8 …

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Uncategorized

Monday, November 11, 2013 – Fed Stuck As Other Central Banks Race to Bottom

Fed Stuck As Other Central Banks Race to Bottom by Sinclair Noe DOW + 21 = 15,783SPX + 1 = 1771NAS + 0.56 = 3919OIL + .54 = 95.14GOLD – 7.60 = 1282.90SILV – .16 = 21.45 A fairly boring day on Wall Street ended with the major averages in positive territory and that was good enough for record highs on the Dow Industrial. The bond market was closed because of the Veterans Day holiday. Volume on the S&P 500 was down by about 23%. Of the 447 S&P 500 companies that have released third-quarter profits so far, 75% have beaten analysts’ forecasts. Earnings per share for the companies that have reported, increased 4.7% in the third quarter. All fairly good news. This will be a relatively light news week. Key economic reports include Thursday’s Sep trade deficit (expected to widen to -$39.0 from -$38.8 in Aug) and Friday’s Oct industrial production report (expected -0.1%). The Treasury this week will conduct its $70 billion quarterly refunding operation. There are speaking engagements by Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota and Atlanta Fed President Lockhart on Tuesday and by Philadelphia Fed President Plosser on Thursday. Fed Chairman Bernanke will hold a town hall meeting with educators on Wednesday in Washington D.C. One quick point that I didn’t get to last week, last Thursday, during a speech, New York Fed president William Dudley said that some of America’s largest financial institutions appear to lack respect for the law. Dudley suggested that regulators may be stymied by …

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Uncategorized

Tuesday, May 21, 2013 – Apple Gimmicks

Apple Gimmicks by Sinclair Noe DOW + 52 = 15,387SPX + 2 = 1669NAS + 5 = 350210 YR YLD – .02 = 1.94%OIL – .98 = 95.95GOLD – 18.10 = 1377.00SILV – .49 = 22.53 It’s Tuesday. The markets moved higher. It’s almost inevitable. The Dow Industrials have closed higher every Tuesday this year, with the exception of January 8th; 19 consecutive Tuesdays. No, I don’t know why. Well, today, part of the reason could be traced to the Federal Reserve. A couple of Fed heads were talking up easy money. New York Fed President William Dudley said he cannot be sure whether policymakers will next reduce or increase the amount of purchases, due to the “uncertain” economic outlook. The QE taper may end up being a QE expansion. Dudley worries about investor over-reaction to a “normalization” of policy and suggests the FOMC may need to update what it needs to see to move in that direction. Earlier, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, urged the European Central Bank to consider employing a US style quantitative easing program to counter slowing inflation and recession in the euro zone. Tomorrow, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak before a congressional panel, the Joint Economic Committee. The minutes of the Fed’s latest policy-setting meeting will be released on Wednesday afternoon. When the Fed showers liquidity, the money flows to the markets, but I can’t give a good reason for the Tuesday winning streak. There is a certain …

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Uncategorized

Thursday, October 18, 2012 – The Only Day Like it Ever

The Only Day Like it Ever by Sinclair Noe DOW – 8 = 13,548 SPX – 3 = 1457NAS – 31 = 307210 YR YLD +.01 = 1.83%OIL un = 92.09GOLD – 8.30 = 1742.60SILV – .38 = 32.92PLAT – 19.00 = 1651.00 Do you remember where you were 25 years ago? It was a Sunday; 1987. The news of the day was that Nancy Reagan had been hospitalized with cancer; there was a threat of war with Iran and within 24 hours the US was shelling Iranian oil platforms; there were concerns about Germany’s currency; the United States, wanting to prop up the dollar and restrict inflation, tightened policy faster than the Europeans. US pressure on Germany to change its monetary policy was one of the factors that unnerved investors.The stock market had a wave of steady selling on Friday and the Dow dropped 108 points. Most people really weren’t aware; this was before we all had computers and smart phones and tablets. Maybe you read about the Friday sell-off in the Sunday newspaper. Maybe you thought about selling a little bit of your portfolio, but the truth is that it was already too late. Halfway around the world, the dollar-backed Hong Kong markets were chopped down 10%. And then the crash spread. European bond markets collapsed, which caused interest-sensitive savings and loans and money center banks to plunge. Monday morning, October 19, 1987 the crash washed across lower Manhattan. In a flash, the Dow crumbled and by the …

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Uncategorized

Friday, May 25, 2012 – It’s Better Than It Looks, Striving For Happiness Amidst the Cow Pies – by Sinclair Noe

DOW – 74 = 12,454SPX – 2= 1317NAS – 1 = 283710 YR YLD – .01 = 1.75%OIL -.06 = 90.60GOLD + 15.90 = 1574.70SILV +.21 = 28.63PLAT + 14.00 = 1436.00 For the week, the S&P 500 rose 1.7 percent.  I’m of the opinion that life is better than it appears. We look around sometimes and the world can seem scary. Sometimes we have to look a little deeper to find the good, the decent, the delightful and the potentially pluperfect. And that brings us to today’s topic on the possibility of the Federal Reserve pumping money into the banking system through asset purchases, in other words, Quantitative Easing Part 3. Inflation expectations are falling, if you consider Treasury bonds as a gauge of inflation. The lower outlook for inflation gives the Fed wiggle room to stimulate the economy. Although, right now the Dow looks like a better QE indicator, and it is not indicating QE. The banks can always make a case for QE, but what about the Fed officials who make the actual decisions? St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard says he expects the U.S. economy to perform better than many forecasters anticipate and that the Fed will therefore need to raise interest rates in late 2013, not late 2014 as its policy committee is currently indicating. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Narayana Kocherlakota thinks the current labor market performance is much closer to maximum employment than the data alone would suggest. A few weeks back, Kocherlakota …

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