Financial Review

Times Are Changing

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-13-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Stock market hits support and bounces. China’s export paint an ugly picture. Government workers quit. Oil inventories up. US strikes Yemen. Losses from Hurricane Matthew, and more coming. Earnings news.  Deutsche hiring freeze. HP layoffs. Amazon hiring for holidays. Facebook-Alphabet lay cable to Hong Kong. The gig is up at Uber. Dylan really is a poet. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-13-2016

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Financial Review

A Low Bar

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-20-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 208 = 18,034 SPX + 19 = 2100 NAS + 62 = 4994 10 YR YLD + .05 = 1.90% OIL + .76 = 56.50 No major economic data published today. The global markets have been focused on China and Greece. China is changing regulations and adding stimulus to try and prop up the economy, even as some of their big real estate development companies are staring down defaults. The problem with Greece is that they are ready to default; payments are due at the end of the week and they are scrambling for cash. Perhaps more importantly, earnings season will kick into high gear this week. Maybe all that will take a backseat to a facedown off the shore of Yemen. The US Navy has sent an aircraft carrier and a guided-missile cruiser into the waters near Yemen to conduct maritime security operations, and not to intercept Iranian arms shipments. It’s believed there are 9 US ships in the region, including cruisers and destroyers. It is further believed the Iranian Navy has sent up to 5 ships full of weapons bound for Houthi rebels in Yemen. Yea, what could go wrong?   Following soft GDP data last week, China’s central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio for all banks by 100 basis points to 18.5% yesterday, adding about $200 billion in liquidity for banks to lend. Last …

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Financial Review

Who’s Buying Whom

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 65 = 17,763 SPX + 7 = 2066 NAS + 6 = 4886 10 YR YLD + .03 = 1.90% OIL – .81 = 49.28 GOLD – 1.10 = 1203.00 SILV – .18 = 16.86   Iran and six world powers, including the US, has agreed to a framework for a final deal on Iran’s controversial nuclear program. The understanding still needs to work out some details but it paves the way for the start of a final phase of talks that aims to reach a comprehensive agreement by the end of June. The agreement concludes weeks of intense negotiations and comes two days beyond the initial March 31 deadline for an outline deal.   Iran has accepted limitations on its enrichment capacity that include retaining only one enrichment facility. Europe and the United States will end nuclear-related economic and financial sanctions on Iran under the future deal after the United Nations’ nuclear agency confirms Tehran’s compliance with the deal.   The standoff over Iran’s nuclear program has dragged on for more than a decade. In November 2013, both sides concluded a preliminary agreement that froze some of Iran’s most sensitive nuclear activities in return for limited sanctions relief. The parties also agreed to reach a conclusive deal by June 2015.   Shortly after the agreement was announced, President Obama read a statement in the Rose Garden of the …

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Financial Review

While the Sun Shines

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 40 = 17,678 SPX – 4 = 2056 NAS – 13 = 4863 10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.01% OIL + 2.22 = 51.43 GOLD + 9.00 = 1205.10 SILV = .15 = 17.20 Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies started bombing targets in Yemen as the country slides closer toward civil war. A Saudi military spokesman said there were no immediate plans to launch ground operations in Yemen. Importers say the Saudi attack is not expected to disrupt oil supplies, but the threat of spreading war in the region could likely impact oil flows. Yemeni President Hadi reportedly fled the country yesterday. The White House says the US will provide “logistical and intelligence support.”   Yemen is a fairly small oil producer, but still the news helped push oil prices up almost 5% today, and there are several reasons. First, if things go wrong, this could turn into a proxy war between Shiite Iran, which is backing the rebels, and Saudi Arabia and other Sunni monarchies that supported the Yemeni regime.  The Saudi action could exacerbate tensions in Libya, Syria and Iraq; in other words, this could be part of a trend in the region.   Yemen is also geographically strategic, at the chokepoint of the Red Sea; so there might be the possibility the rebels could disrupt oil tanker traffic; 3.8 million barrels a day …

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Financial Review

A Bit Ironic

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-25-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 292 = 17,718 SPX – 30 = 2061 NAS – 118 = 4876 10 YR YLD + .04 = 1.92% OIL + 1.70 = 49.21 GOLD + 1.90 = 1196.10 SILV + .01 = 17.06 Not much in the way of economic data today. Orders for durable goods dropped in February, a possible sign the slowdown in global growth may be weighing on American manufacturers. Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years declined 1.4 percent after a 2 percent gain in January that was smaller than previously estimated. Demand for American-made products may be softening as economies abroad struggle to accelerate and a stronger dollar makes it more attractive for foreign customers to buy from elsewhere.   Certainly not much in the way of news that would push the markets down to triple digit losses, but that’s the way the markets have been recently. In the past couple of weeks we see big moves in the markets, a little more to the downside than the upside. One of the better explanations I’ve heard for what is moving the market – irony. It seems like good news is bad and bad news is good. A strong dollar is good news for the consumer; certainly when it comes to lower gas prices. A strong dollar hurts durable goods orders. The jobs picture has shown solid and …

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Financial Review

ECB QE

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 259 = 17,813 SPX + 31 = 2063 NAS + 82 = 4750 10 YR YLD + .04 = 1.90% OIL – 1.24 = 46.54 GOLD + 9.20 = 1303.10 SILV + .20 = 18.41 The European Central Bank has launched a quantitative easing program, which together with existing programs, will pump €60 billion per month into the Eurozone economies through the purchase of public and private securities, mainly government bonds. The QE program will run through September 2016 with a total price tag of €1 trillion (or $1.3 trillion dollars). So, it’s a big money printing, QE party for the Eurozone, except for Greece. The central bank effectively shut Greece out of the bond buying until July, and only then if Greece passes a review of its current bailout program. That program is heavy on debt reduction and austerity. The country’s existing program of financial support expires at the end of February. The government will run out of money by June without further aid. Greece holds elections on Sunday. The Syriza party is expected to win the election. Syriza would like to default on existing debt and scrap the current bailout program; essentially challenging the status quo of fiscal austerity policy. What happens if Syriza wins the election on Sunday? Well, they will probably claim that fiscal austerity has contributed to the despair and poverty of …

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